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Is Now the Time to Sell Calvin Johnson? (1 Viewer)

A

Ack88

Footballguy
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.

 
You're probably right that the perception will change once 30 hits, but I'm more inclined to ride his studliness into the ground.

 
Depends entirely on what you are going to get for him and what you have. I think he could still produce at a high level for a long time.

 
If you have a title contender you're almost obligated to hang onto him. But if your in rebuild or semi-rebuild, I think trading him is a pretty easy option at this time. But then again, only if getting full value in return.

 
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
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This all assumes that you value getting maximum trade value out of him more than you value getting another 5-7 years of dominant production out of him.

There used to be a point in time in dynasty where you could sell an elite player off at the end of his career and still get maximum value out of him. With people looking absurdly far ahead now (too far ahead), that opportunity is gone and you're looking at selling off a guy that's half-way, or sometimes not even half-way through his career to get maximum value out of him. At some point you need to just hold onto the guy and enjoy the insane production he gives you. When we're talking about a guy with 5+ years of elite production left, I think we've hit that point.

"Value" isn't an asset that actually wins you anything in fantasy football, and any time you're trading a guaranteed stud you risk losing value anyway. I'm sure there are plenty of people that "sold high" on Calvin last year (when his value was even higher than it is this year) for packages that involved players like Doug Martin, Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, etc. In that case they didn't get max value out of him because the value they got was fake, and is now far less. When you're trading a stud for multiple pieces the chances are pretty good that at least one of those pieces will be a surprise bust and you'll never reach the value you would have gotten just by keeping the player.

Studs win championships and Calvin has 5+ years of stud-dom left. You're overthinking this.

 
If you're determined to sell him because you're someone that's always looking to extract trade value, then now is probably the best time. If you like owning players that score points, I'd keep him.

 
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
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I think it's virtually impossible to get adequate trade compensation for a player of Johnson's quality. He's been the #1 WR in points per game three years in a row. He is as good a bet as anyone in the league to remain near that level for 3-5 more years.

There's a name for dynasty players who sold Jerry Rice at 28: losers.

 
I would trade Calvin only if I had zero other players on my team likely to finish as startable at the position (outside top 12 QB, 24 RB, 36 WR, 12TE).

Sound like a ludicrous team? Well it's not as ludacris as trading freaking Calvin Johnson because he is 29. You're talking about trading a player who is virtually a lock for top 5 WR for at least 3 years, maybe more, and will probably stay relevant for 5-7 years minimum (horrible injury aside). Your best case scenario for a trade is AJ Green or DT, a player likely to be worth less than Calvin for the next 3ish years. Then maybe he overtakes him and evens out on points over a stretch in what? Year 5 or 6? The only other acceptable trade would maybe be Aaron Rodgers, but even then you would need more in the trade from the Rodgers owner IMO. Other trades don't make sense to the other owners.

This post highlights why dynasty Startups suck so badly in most cases. There is always a team who takes the up and comers and never has actually proven players. Then when their team predictably sucks, they quit because they are in a huge deficit. Chasing the team that will be unbeatable in 3 years means you give up money now for a lottery later.

 
chickensoup said:
I would trade Calvin only if I had zero other players on my team likely to finish as startable at the position (outside top 12 QB, 24 RB, 36 WR, 12TE).

Sound like a ludicrous team? Well it's not as ludacris as trading freaking Calvin Johnson because he is 29. You're talking about trading a player who is virtually a lock for top 5 WR for at least 3 years, maybe more, and will probably stay relevant for 5-7 years minimum (horrible injury aside). Your best case scenario for a trade is AJ Green or DT, a player likely to be worth less than Calvin for the next 3ish years. Then maybe he overtakes him and evens out on points over a stretch in what? Year 5 or 6? The only other acceptable trade would maybe be Aaron Rodgers, but even then you would need more in the trade from the Rodgers owner IMO. Other trades don't make sense to the other owners.

This post highlights why dynasty Startups suck so badly in most cases. There is always a team who takes the up and comers and never has actually proven players. Then when their team predictably sucks, they quit because they are in a huge deficit. Chasing the team that will be unbeatable in 3 years means you give up money now for a lottery later.
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You mean like this:

Foles/Cutler/Bridgewater/Bortles

Gio/Sankey/Hyde/Lattimore/Mason

Julio/Jeffery/Cobb/Floyd/Hopkins/Watkins/Austin/A.Robinson

Eifert/Green/Ebron

 
I had Jerry Rice. Cut him in 2000 at age 38. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Marvin Harrison. Traded him midway thru 2004 at age 32. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Andre Johnson. Traded him before last year at age 31. Productive year last year and should have 3 or so more if he wants to and can find a good team to play for.

Anyone trading Calvin Johnson at age 29 will regret it.

 
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
I would agree with the bolded. I would also say that this is completely the wrong question. The question is whether the drop in Calvin's value will be greater or worse than the amount of value he produces on the field.

Imagine a hypothetical: imagine Calvin has 140/2,100/15 receiving this year. Imagine that he turns 30, though, so his value drops by 2%. In this hypothetical, your statement was right- Calvin's value was never higher. At the same time, clearly selling him would have been exactly the wrong thing. The actual value of a 140/2,100/15 season would far outweigh the 2% drop in perceived value.

I just bought Calvin Johnson this offseason, and paid a very high price to do so (basically, I gave Demaryius, pick 1.06, and Toby Gerhart). I did not do this because I think Calvin is an appreciating asset. I know he's going to depreciate; if not now, then very soon. I simply don't care. I think Calvin will outscore Demaryius by a quite substantial amount in fantasy football, and those actual points are worth far more to me than any concern about future market value.

As for what we can realistically expect out of Calvin going forward... Randy Moss gave us 314 more VBD starting with his age-29 season. Terrell Owens gave us 521. Marvin Harrison gave us 556. For comparison purposes, Torry Holt produced 562 VBD over his entire career. Isaac Bruce produced 504. An elite, league-destroying Hall of Fame WR can produce as much VBD at age 29 or later as a borderline-HoF WR will over his entire NFL career. As elite as Calvin Johnson is, I would not be the slightest bit surprised if he had another 500+ VBD in standard scoring left in him. More in PPR.

 
I owned him in a league where I was stacked at WR and also had Drew Brees in a contract year. I was giving thought of trading Johnson's rights because I felt I would be adequately loaded at WR (still). I had no backup QB of note and there were no RFA QBs to speak of.

I knew, given the parameters of the league and how we have RFA set up, that I would not be able to retain both Johnson and Brees. I tried to accrue as much cash as possible, hoping to somehow retain both. One owner made it very easy for me. He bid his ENTIRE RFA BUDGET on Johnson. We get $50 annually, his team had accrued $112. Most teams had anywhere from $40 to $70. Not sure why he blew his entire wad considering it would be doubtful anyone could go and add $40+ to try and up the bid.

But it made my choice easy. I was not about to spend that kind of cash for Johnson, even as a top-3ish overall dynasty player, given my circumstances.

That all said, I ended up trading for him in another dynasty league so I didn't feel too bad about losing him in the other.

I think the guy has at least 5-6 elite years left in him.

 
Adam Harstad said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
I would agree with the bolded. I would also say that this is completely the wrong question. The question is whether the drop in Calvin's value will be greater or worse than the amount of value he produces on the field.

Imagine a hypothetical: imagine Calvin has 140/2,100/15 receiving this year. Imagine that he turns 30, though, so his value drops by 2%. In this hypothetical, your statement was right- Calvin's value was never higher. At the same time, clearly selling him would have been exactly the wrong thing. The actual value of a 140/2,100/15 season would far outweigh the 2% drop in perceived value.

I just bought Calvin Johnson this offseason, and paid a very high price to do so (basically, I gave Demaryius, pick 1.06, and Toby Gerhart). I did not do this because I think Calvin is an appreciating asset. I know he's going to depreciate; if not now, then very soon. I simply don't care. I think Calvin will outscore Demaryius by a quite substantial amount in fantasy football, and those actual points are worth far more to me than any concern about future market value.

As for what we can realistically expect out of Calvin going forward... Randy Moss gave us 314 more VBD starting with his age-29 season. Terrell Owens gave us 521. Marvin Harrison gave us 556. For comparison purposes, Torry Holt produced 562 VBD over his entire career. Isaac Bruce produced 504. An elite, league-destroying Hall of Fame WR can produce as much VBD at age 29 or later as a borderline-HoF WR will over his entire NFL career. As elite as Calvin Johnson is, I would not be the slightest bit surprised if he had another 500+ VBD in standard scoring left in him. More in PPR.
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To me it comes down to what can you get for him and what VBD those players are likely to produce. If it's Julio and another up and coming WR (Allen, Floyd, Patterson, etc.) then I do that rather easily.

 
I have an offer of D. Thomas and two firsts from a middle of the pack team.

My other WR are solid, but I'm short a first next year.

That's why I posted the topic. After reading the well thought out posts, I'm leaning towards declining the deal. Thanks.

 
In a high performance ppr dynasty league, I traded Jamaal Charles and a 1.11 rookie pick for him before last season and I still think I got the better deal (it helped that I hit on Alfred Morris that year and was stacked at rb). But I put a 6 year contract on Megatron and I am going to ride him into the ground, and I expect him to be producing WR1 numbers years after Charles has retired.

 
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Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher.
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Yes and unfortunately most of the other owners in your dynasty league are aware of this too - which is why if you try to move him, you won't probably get what you think he is worth as that it is already factored into the equation.

 
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nirad3 said:
I owned him in a league where I was stacked at WR and also had Drew Brees in a contract year. I was giving thought of trading Johnson's rights because I felt I would be adequately loaded at WR (still). I had no backup QB of note and there were no RFA QBs to speak of.

I knew, given the parameters of the league and how we have RFA set up, that I would not be able to retain both Johnson and Brees. I tried to accrue as much cash as possible, hoping to somehow retain both. One owner made it very easy for me. He bid his ENTIRE RFA BUDGET on Johnson. We get $50 annually, his team had accrued $112. Most teams had anywhere from $40 to $70. Not sure why he blew his entire wad considering it would be doubtful anyone could go and add $40+ to try and up the bid.

But it made my choice easy. I was not about to spend that kind of cash for Johnson, even as a top-3ish overall dynasty player, given my circumstances.

That all said, I ended up trading for him in another dynasty league so I didn't feel too bad about losing him in the other.

I think the guy has at least 5-6 elite years left in him.
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I had the same decision with Calvin and Adrian Peterson two years ago. Sounds like exactly the same league set up. Both hitting 0 year contracts so one was headed to RFA unless I dealt them. This was after Peterson's big injury so his trade value was way down. I thought he was extremely underrated so really wanted to keep him, but couldn't give up Calvin. I ended up having to sell Peterson low for DeMarco Murray straight up when I know I could have gotten a LOT more for Calvin, while keeping Peterson.

Peterson went on to nearly break the NFL rushing record the next season and I still don't regret the decision at all. I'm not sure there's a player I'd rather have in dynasty than Megatron.

 
Ack88 said:
I have an offer of D. Thomas and two firsts from a middle of the pack team.

My other WR are solid, but I'm short a first next year.

That's why I posted the topic. After reading the well thought out posts, I'm leaning towards declining the deal. Thanks.
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Mistake not to take it.

 
Both sides could be right on this. His value probably has no where to go but down (production too) but guys like him are also like Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne. You can hold him well into his mid 30s and still have a lot of value.

 
I think it's safe to say that you begin to entertain (and I repeat, entertain) offers for him where you may have refused to consider any in the past.

 
cstu said:
Ack88 said:
I have an offer of D. Thomas and two firsts from a middle of the pack team.

My other WR are solid, but I'm short a first next year.

That's why I posted the topic. After reading the well thought out posts, I'm leaning towards declining the deal. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Mistake not to take it.
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If I was not getting a top 5 pick I would be leery. D. Thomas has had his share of injuries.
 
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unless you get an offer that blows you away, he is a guy I would ride till he is done. Rarely will you get what he can give.

 
lod01 said:
I had Jerry Rice. Cut him in 2000 at age 38. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Marvin Harrison. Traded him midway thru 2004 at age 32. He had 2 productive years after that.

I had Andre Johnson. Traded him before last year at age 31. Productive year last year and should have 3 or so more if he wants to and can find a good team to play for.

Anyone trading Calvin Johnson at age 29 will regret it.
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Yep. In the current dynasty climate it seems best to ride these guys or buy them, as the youth factor might be slightly over emphasized right now.
 
Last season I dealt Julius Thomas, Tavon Austin Terrence Williams and a first 1-11, for Calvin and Vance McDonald. I fully plan on owning him for the rest of his career. Not sure I could get what I imagine he is worth. And im a Lions slappy so its cool to own the best player for my home team.

 
cstu said:
chickensoup said:
I would trade Calvin only if I had zero other players on my team likely to finish as startable at the position (outside top 12 QB, 24 RB, 36 WR, 12TE).

Sound like a ludicrous team? Well it's not as ludacris as trading freaking Calvin Johnson because he is 29. You're talking about trading a player who is virtually a lock for top 5 WR for at least 3 years, maybe more, and will probably stay relevant for 5-7 years minimum (horrible injury aside). Your best case scenario for a trade is AJ Green or DT, a player likely to be worth less than Calvin for the next 3ish years. Then maybe he overtakes him and evens out on points over a stretch in what? Year 5 or 6? The only other acceptable trade would maybe be Aaron Rodgers, but even then you would need more in the trade from the Rodgers owner IMO. Other trades don't make sense to the other owners.

This post highlights why dynasty Startups suck so badly in most cases. There is always a team who takes the up and comers and never has actually proven players. Then when their team predictably sucks, they quit because they are in a huge deficit. Chasing the team that will be unbeatable in 3 years means you give up money now for a lottery later.
Click to expand...
You mean like this:

Foles/Cutler/Bridgewater/Bortles

Gio/Sankey/Hyde/Lattimore/Mason

Julio/Jeffery/Cobb/Floyd/Hopkins/Watkins/Austin/A.Robinson

Eifert/Green/Ebron
Click to expand...
There is just no chance you get that roster in a startup dynasty this year unless you somehow traded loads of late picks for loads of early ones (like trading your 6/8th rounders for a second/14th type of trades, except you have like 6 1-3 rounders)

The young teams tend to have some currently productive youngsters like Julio and Gio, then reach on lottery tickets, basically giving up on the year.

Youth is overrated in Dynasty football because the league changes over way too fast. Players in good situations get into bad ones. RBs get supplanted constantly. WRs under good QBs end up signing with the Jets etc etc. trading away the truly special players is almost always a mistake unless the other guy is giving way too much. To do it because of age is ridiculous

 
The type of receiver he is, and his toughness, I could see him being a top WR for several more years. A lot of WRs do well after 30 and he's exceptional from a physical standpoint.

 
No.

WRs have more longevity than RBs do, and Megatron is such a physical freak, he is someone you ride until the wheels fall off. Remember that despite missing two games and being banged up for much of the year, he still put up 84-1,492-12 last year. His touchdowns do fluctuate a bit from year to year, but he should still catch tons of balls and rack up sick yardage.

 
chickensoup said:
cstu said:
chickensoup said:
I would trade Calvin only if I had zero other players on my team likely to finish as startable at the position (outside top 12 QB, 24 RB, 36 WR, 12TE).

Sound like a ludicrous team? Well it's not as ludacris as trading freaking Calvin Johnson because he is 29. You're talking about trading a player who is virtually a lock for top 5 WR for at least 3 years, maybe more, and will probably stay relevant for 5-7 years minimum (horrible injury aside). Your best case scenario for a trade is AJ Green or DT, a player likely to be worth less than Calvin for the next 3ish years. Then maybe he overtakes him and evens out on points over a stretch in what? Year 5 or 6? The only other acceptable trade would maybe be Aaron Rodgers, but even then you would need more in the trade from the Rodgers owner IMO. Other trades don't make sense to the other owners.

This post highlights why dynasty Startups suck so badly in most cases. There is always a team who takes the up and comers and never has actually proven players. Then when their team predictably sucks, they quit because they are in a huge deficit. Chasing the team that will be unbeatable in 3 years means you give up money now for a lottery later.
Click to expand...
You mean like this:

Foles/Cutler/Bridgewater/Bortles

Gio/Sankey/Hyde/Lattimore/Mason

Julio/Jeffery/Cobb/Floyd/Hopkins/Watkins/Austin/A.Robinson

Eifert/Green/Ebron
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There is just no chance you get that roster in a startup dynasty this year unless you somehow traded loads of late picks for loads of early ones (like trading your 6/8th rounders for a second/14th type of trades, except you have like 6 1-3 rounders)

The young teams tend to have some currently productive youngsters like Julio and Gio, then reach on lottery tickets, basically giving up on the year.

Youth is overrated in Dynasty football because the league changes over way too fast. Players in good situations get into bad ones. RBs get supplanted constantly. WRs under good QBs end up signing with the Jets etc etc. trading away the truly special players is almost always a mistake unless the other guy is giving way too much. To do it because of age is ridiculous
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That's from a league that started up last year. Most of the teams were playing to win that year so I went young and built for year 2/3. Still made the playoffs year one.

No, you normally shouldn't trade special players but if you can trade a 29 yo WR for a younger one (DT for example) who will put up similar stats the next couple years and pick up two possibly high 1st's then that's a reason to do it.

 
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
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This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.

 
He was just traded away for Bobby Wagner and a mid 2014 2nd and 3rd round rookie pick in a 32 TEAM LEAGUE that I am in! :o :shock:

 
Adam Harstad said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
I would agree with the bolded. I would also say that this is completely the wrong question. The question is whether the drop in Calvin's value will be greater or worse than the amount of value he produces on the field.

Imagine a hypothetical: imagine Calvin has 140/2,100/15 receiving this year. Imagine that he turns 30, though, so his value drops by 2%. In this hypothetical, your statement was right- Calvin's value was never higher. At the same time, clearly selling him would have been exactly the wrong thing. The actual value of a 140/2,100/15 season would far outweigh the 2% drop in perceived value.

I just bought Calvin Johnson this offseason, and paid a very high price to do so (basically, I gave Demaryius, pick 1.06, and Toby Gerhart). I did not do this because I think Calvin is an appreciating asset. I know he's going to depreciate; if not now, then very soon. I simply don't care. I think Calvin will outscore Demaryius by a quite substantial amount in fantasy football, and those actual points are worth far more to me than any concern about future market value.

As for what we can realistically expect out of Calvin going forward... Randy Moss gave us 314 more VBD starting with his age-29 season. Terrell Owens gave us 521. Marvin Harrison gave us 556. For comparison purposes, Torry Holt produced 562 VBD over his entire career. Isaac Bruce produced 504. An elite, league-destroying Hall of Fame WR can produce as much VBD at age 29 or later as a borderline-HoF WR will over his entire NFL career. As elite as Calvin Johnson is, I would not be the slightest bit surprised if he had another 500+ VBD in standard scoring left in him. More in PPR.
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Brilliant post.

 
Warpig said:
He was just traded away for Bobby Wagner and a mid 2014 2nd and 3rd round rookie pick in a 32 TEAM LEAGUE that I am in! :o :shock:
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I'd be calling collusion on that one tbh... in a 32 team league he's worth even more than your typical player. And I'd probably get kicked out of most of my 12 man leagues for making a deal like that.

 
In Dynasty, I only look about 2 years ahead. Any farther than that, you can't predict what's going to happen....the NFL changes so fast.

Looking at it that way, I would never move Calvin in a dynasty league, unless I was blown away by an offer. Any no one would ever pay what I would need.

Revisit this two years down the road. It is possible that Calvin's value is at its peak right now. But I can't forsee him falling off a cliff within the next two years. If I did, then I would think about moving him now.

 
fightingillini said:
In Dynasty, I only look about 2 years ahead. Any farther than that, you can't predict what's going to happen....the NFL changes so fast.
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I would argue that you can't predict what will happen 2 months from now, let alone two years. Remember, at this time last year Trent Richardson was the #1 dynasty player. Ray Rice and Arian Foster were consensus 1st/2nd round guys. David Wilson was going in the 2nd and Lamar Miller was going in the 3rd. Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, and Jordan Cameron were high-upside fliers. Nick Foles was a backup. Percy Harvin was going in the 2nd, then he was going in the 8th. MJD and SJax were both going in the 5th. And these weren't just problems with dynasty rankings- these guys were going in a similar place in redraft, too. If anything, the problem with many of these rankings is that they weren't forward-looking ENOUGH. We all knew that SJax and MJD were old and past their physical prime, but we talked ourselves into taking them high because we were confident in our ability to predict how many points they'd score in the next 1, 2, or 3 years.

FantasyPros grades the accuracy of preseason predictions after the season is over. Top accuracy marks are in the low-to-mid 60%. And that's redraft, looking strictly one season out. It's not like long-term predictions are a crapshoot while short-term predictions are much safer. All predictions are inherently a crapshoot. In my mind, this is an argument for ranking based on easy heuristics instead of detailed projections. Basically, in order to increase the accuracy of predictions, we can either reduce the time-frame of our predictions... or we can maintain the long time-frame and reduce the specificity of our predictions.

I don't have to guess how many fantasy points Calvin Johnson is going to score four years from now. All I have to know is that he's really, really good, and traditionally receivers as good as he is have done very, very well after age 29. I think overly short windows miss the forest for the trees. They miss the fact that I can predict long-term behavior in a general sense with as much accuracy as they can predict short-term behavior in a specific sense.

 
I agree most of the posters here. Calvin should have quite a few productive seasons left in him, definitely a sell in dynasty leagues.

 
Khy said:
Warpig said:
He was just traded away for Bobby Wagner and a mid 2014 2nd and 3rd round rookie pick in a 32 TEAM LEAGUE that I am in! :o :shock:
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I'd be calling collusion on that one tbh... in a 32 team league he's worth even more than your typical player. And I'd probably get kicked out of most of my 12 man leagues for making a deal like that.
Click to expand...
LOL! It was the commish getting Calvin in the deal. I'd be banished if I cried collusion. It is a salary cap league...so maybe that had something to do with it. Though I don't think their salaries were that far off from each other.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
KellysHeroes said:
Unless I'm total rebuild I would continue to attempt to get him, hes going to be good in his early 30s
Click to expand...
As would I but he's a top 3 dynasty player so you are going to give up a ton to get him.

If you have to give up DT and two 1st's then that is simply not worth it.

 
Sabertooth said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.
Click to expand...
You weren't right about AP.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.
Click to expand...
You weren't right about AP.
Click to expand...
:lmao:

 
Sabertooth said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.
Click to expand...
You weren't right about AP.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Injury you couldn't have predicted.

Then 2000 yard season

Then RB1 season

Now Looks to have multiple RB1 seasons left.

How exactly were you right? You seemed to be implying you ended up right and hated for it.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.
Click to expand...
You weren't right about AP.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Injury you couldn't have predicted.

Then 2000 yard season

Then RB1 season

Now Looks to have multiple RB1 seasons left.

How exactly were you right? You seemed to be implying you ended up right and hated for it.
Click to expand...
Don't project onto me bro. I was implying that even if this poster is right, he'll be hated for it. Nothing more, nothing less. Let's not derail this thread with your opinions on my other thread.

Now as for Calvin, I think he's a player you ride into the sunset. I'd bet barring injury he has at least 5-6 more WR12 or better seasons in him. That's more than most rookies have in them. That's a career in and of itself. I don't know if anything less than like 5 first round picks would be worth it. And even then, say you hit on 50% of them, you are looking at 2.5 studs. It's even money at that point IF you get lucky.

Even once Calvin loses his elite speed (and I bet he's still one of the 5 or 6 fastest players in the NFL at full speed...with his stride maybe even the fastest), he's still got great body control and toughness and hands. There hasn't ever been a player like Calvin. Couple that with great off the field behavior and work ethic and you are looking at Calvin playing well into his 30s. The only thing that can stop Calvin is catastrophic injury or retirement.

 
Sabertooth said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Sabertooth said:
Ack88 said:
He's 28. Will be 29 in September. This will be his 9th year in the league. He's had a few injury bumps over the past couple of years and the Lions have added Tate and Ebron.

If you own him in a dynasty format, I'll argue his value will never be higher. He's a bonafide top 6 pick in all redraft models as well. In dynasty, fair or unfair, once a player hits 30, many people think the uber productive days are somewhat numbered. If you held him until next year, someone might hold pack compensation, even by a slight amount, because he will turn 30 in September of 2015.

By dealing him now, you can get absolute maximum value. I posit that by waiting until next year, the bounty in return for Calvin begins a nearly inevitable drop off.

I say now is the best time to sell.

Curious to get the SP's Perspectvies. Thanks.
Click to expand...
This won't end well for you. Even if you are right, people will hate you for it.
Click to expand...
You weren't right about AP.
Click to expand...
:lmao:
Click to expand...
Injury you couldn't have predicted.

Then 2000 yard season

Then RB1 season

Now Looks to have multiple RB1 seasons left.

How exactly were you right? You seemed to be implying you ended up right and hated for it.
Click to expand...
Don't project onto me bro. I was implying that even if this poster is right, he'll be hated for it. Nothing more, nothing less. Let's not derail this thread with your opinions on my other thread. Now as for Calvin, I think he's a player you ride into the sunset. I'd bet barring injury he has at least 5-6 more WR12 or better seasons in him. That's more than most rookies have in them. That's a career in and of itself. I don't know if anything less than like 5 first round picks would be worth it. And even then, say you hit on 50% of them, you are looking at 2.5 studs. It's even money at that point IF you get lucky.

Even once Calvin loses his elite speed (and I bet he's still one of the 5 or 6 fastest players in the NFL at full speed...with his stride maybe even the fastest), he's still got great body control and toughness and hands. There hasn't ever been a player like Calvin. Couple that with great off the field behavior and work ethic and you are looking at Calvin playing well into his 30s. The only thing that can stop Calvin is catastrophic injury or retirement.
Click to expand...
Check out the bolded portion. Who's projecting, again?I agree with your take on Calvin, btw.

 
I see him as untradeable because who are you going to get for him? The AJ Green owner is not going to give up much, at least he shouldn't. Who would be acceptable? And, what picks would be acceptable? I don't see any winning combo here.

 
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