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Converting Projections into Auction Values (1 Viewer)

koreansteve

Footballguy
(I apologize if there is a thread covering this, I couldn't find one when I searched)

I'd like to do an auction redraft league this year. It will be my first one. With traditional snake drafts, it's not overly complicated. You do projections and then I factor in VBD to decide who I want when it's my turn.

How do you convert projections/rankings into Auction Values? (or something resembling a general guideline during the auction)

I would love to hear how each of you prepares for your auction drafts.

 
(I apologize if there is a thread covering this, I couldn't find one when I searched)

I'd like to do an auction redraft league this year. It will be my first one. With traditional snake drafts, it's not overly complicated. You do projections and then I factor in VBD to decide who I want when it's my turn.

How do you convert projections/rankings into Auction Values? (or something resembling a general guideline during the auction)

I would love to hear how each of you prepares for your auction drafts.
It depends on the league size, number of players rostered, starting line up, scoring system, and knowing your league-mates.

My auction league has evolved: originally we (over)valued QBs, and they commanded a high price, then it shifted to RBs. It is also a keeper league, so depending on who is being kept, positional scarcity will determine auction prices paid.

Furthermore, as the auction progresses, positional scarcity will cause some players (last in a tier) to go for more than what you might have expected.

So, essentially, you can develop a plan for what you want to pay, but you have to be willing to be flexible.

 
Alright. It's a little bit complicated but it's just simple math and a few steps.

1. Within what ever projections you are using you need to determine the VBD for the players at each position. There are multiple different techniques to doing this, worst starter method, last player drafted at the position, etc etc.... Use what ever you feel comfortable with

2. After this is done you need to add up all the VBD points from all the positions to give you the total VBD value.

3. Next you need to determine the total number of auction dollars to be spent above the baseline 1$ for everyone as outlined in the article you posted a link to above.

4. Then you divide the total number of auction dollars to be spent by the total VDB value. This should give you a number that is in cents. I.E. $.36 or $.21 This is the value of each VBD point.

5. Now you just need to multiply the value of each VBD point by each players VBD value and this will give you his auction value based on your projections and your VBD determination.

Some keys to remember here is this does not mean that's any said player will actually auction for this value as each and every auction has it's own life and the other owners may have a completely different value for said player. This is your determination of that players value, therefore it's only as strong as the projections you have and how you determine VBD.

If this is a league you have auctioned in a few times before don't be afraid to mess with your VBD to help adjust your auction values to reflect how your league values it's players. What I'm saying is that if your league puts a premium on QB play and the top QB's go for 25%-30% of your auction dollars ($50-$60 in a $200 league) but your sheet says that top QB's are only worth $28 then you know your going to need to spend more to get a top QB in your league so adjust your sheet. (now if you should or not is a totally different debate, lol)

Hope this helps.

 
I did something similar to dkp's post for our soon to be over auction. Dynasty, so slightly different but similar concept.

1. figured out the average starter points at each position including flex.

2. calculate total the points projected for all starters.

3. get total $ spent for all teams in the auction ($100 cap, 12 teams = $1200)

4. see the tiers and positional depth (no point in paying a lot for starting DBs when there are LOTS of well scoring DBs out there)

5. figure out your positional point value (let's say a point for a QB is worth $0.05, a point for a DB is worth $0.02, etc.)

6. figure the baseline player value (projected points X positional points)

7. adjust (I used multiplication values of 50%-150%) for risk (guys like Larry Fitzgerald are safer than Golden Tate, even assuming you project them the same, Fitz is worth more IMO), Growth potential (you might project 100 points for L Green, but the potential that he explodes is greater than Brandon Myers)

8. Calculate

9. Ensure the total prices don't exceed the total cap (by much anyway)

 
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Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.

 
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Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I've been playing auction leagues for over 10 years now. Never once have they come anywhere near what calculations say they "should" go (as a note, I've found Draft Dominator's numbers to be particularly bad as they have far too steep a drop-off from the top talent). Not to say that it's not worth making some notations of how much a certain position is "worth," but expect the values to shift during the actual auction itself.

The best method I've found for assigning players is to set the baseline for VBD at the first non-$1 player at each position (which is admittedly much harder without historical information, and will typically be further down the depth chart than most expert's rankings predict since different owners often have different opinions on how much a low-end player is worth). Add up all the VBD of all the non-$1 players and divide by the amount of "free" money (i.e. the extra money left after the $1 minimum bid for players is removed). It's not perfect, but it will give you an idea of the relative value of each player.

Keep in mind that when you're auctioning, you are not trying to necessarily get bargains compared to your calculated value, but bargains compared to the other owners in your league. If everyone overpays for a position, sometimes you have to too to remain competitive. The key is to overpay less than the others do.

 
Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I've been playing auction leagues for over 10 years now. Never once have they come anywhere near what calculations say they "should" go (as a note, I've found Draft Dominator's numbers to be particularly bad as they have far too steep a drop-off from the top talent). Not to say that it's not worth making some notations of how much a certain position is "worth," but expect the values to shift during the actual auction itself.

The best method I've found for assigning players is to set the baseline for VBD at the first non-$1 player at each position (which is admittedly much harder without historical information, and will typically be further down the depth chart than most expert's rankings predict since different owners often have different opinions on how much a low-end player is worth). Add up all the VBD of all the non-$1 players and divide by the amount of "free" money (i.e. the extra money left after the $1 minimum bid for players is removed). It's not perfect, but it will give you an idea of the relative value of each player.

Keep in mind that when you're auctioning, you are not trying to necessarily get bargains compared to your calculated value, but bargains compared to the other owners in your league. If everyone overpays for a position, sometimes you have to too to remain competitive. The key is to overpay less than the others do.
this is perhaps the hardest part. If I value TE more than others do, and value RB less, I tend to land a handful of very good TEs and am weak at RB.

That might be okay if the league trades often and I can get decent deals later. It's also really tough to not bid on players once they start going for half your calculated value.

 
Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
i spent a great deal of time last year making calculations and when the draft happened, nothing was close. what helped me was making tiers for each position and assigned an average value for those tiers. Then i would create a range for where i would expect the tiers to max out and bottom out. This way i could make sure that i dont overspend on my first few picks and get good value if a guy was at the bottom of the range i projected him at. dont know if that made sense but hope it helps

 
The first year I did an auction, I stuck to my numbers and was unwilling to overpay for anyone. At the end of the auction, I only had two low-end QB2's (in a 2QB league, mind you), and a whole slew of WR3/4's and RB 3/4's. I did have a top-end TE and more depth than any other team, but without studs in any of the other positions, I finished near the bottom of my league. Value is great, but depth only gets you so far and it's often very difficult to make trades involving depth players, so you can't necessarily count on trading to improve your team.

Idizzle brings up a great point, though. Rather than focusing on rankings as you typically do with standard drafts, tiers become the most important way of displaying players for auctions. Make sure you love everyone in each tier equally and would be as content with the bottom of that tier as the top as you never know where the value will fall.

As an aside, I've found the *best* method for calculating auction values is to use the last 1-2 years' worth of data from the same league (assuming relatively stable ownership, of course). Obviously it doesn't help the OP, but it gives me a much more accurate idea of how much I should expect to pay for a particular position and rank. I just then use calculated VBD/AAV numbers to get an idea of what positions/tiers are under- or over-valued to help inform my overall auction strategy. And for what it's worth, the top echelon players tend to be the best value per points. It sounds somewhat counter-intuitive since you'd expect owners to pay a premium for those positions, but I find that the middle-tier players (the WR2 and RB2-level players) tend to go for more than expected. Not because they're scarcer, but because there is much more variability in projections at that level. So you'll have 2-3 owners that are relatively higher on a player and therefore will drive the price up more than you'd expect. So be wary of targeting those bargains ahead of time because you may be unpleasantly surprised.

 
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Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I wouldn't say that it's a waste of time, but I agree, the actual auction will likley be very different than your values.

The reason why it isn't a waste of time is that......you can see the relative difference between similar player positions (tiers), and relative differences between different positions. You might see that the a typical RB will go for 2-3 times a typical QB, due to positional scarcity. Or that the top WRs prices are double that of WRs ranked 15-20. That's valuable information to take to the draft.

Just be sure that you can adjust your values on the fly when actual bids are different than your starting point. Auctions are a zero sum game, so if the top RBs are going for 20% more than what your values show, you know that 1) you must pay more than what you thought if you want to secure a top RB (and probably more for other studs as well), and 2) that other positions (and possible lower tiered RBs) are going to go for less that what your values show.

If you do your values, then you will know when a great deal comes, and you can pounce on it early, or make another owner pay full market price or close to it. The best way to do this is compare your values vs the average values in similar leagues' auctions (ESPN is a good source.....lot of owners will use their pricing as a guide). So if your calculated value is $30 and ESPN is showing $22 as a recomendation, that's a player that you want to target.

If you don't calculate values, I find it hard to figure out what is my best strategy. I use my values vs ESPN to figure out what strategy will maximize my team's scoring given market prices.

 
SelenaCat said:
Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I've been playing auction leagues for over 10 years now. Never once have they come anywhere near what calculations say they "should" go (as a note, I've found Draft Dominator's numbers to be particularly bad as they have far too steep a drop-off from the top talent). Not to say that it's not worth making some notations of how much a certain position is "worth," but expect the values to shift during the actual auction itself.

The best method I've found for assigning players is to set the baseline for VBD at the first non-$1 player at each position (which is admittedly much harder without historical information, and will typically be further down the depth chart than most expert's rankings predict since different owners often have different opinions on how much a low-end player is worth). Add up all the VBD of all the non-$1 players and divide by the amount of "free" money (i.e. the extra money left after the $1 minimum bid for players is removed). It's not perfect, but it will give you an idea of the relative value of each player.

Keep in mind that when you're auctioning, you are not trying to necessarily get bargains compared to your calculated value, but bargains compared to the other owners in your league. If everyone overpays for a position, sometimes you have to too to remain competitive. The key is to overpay less than the others do.
I think I understand what you're saying but isn't this...wrong?

The point being if you've done your calculations and have priced out VBD "points" and everyone overpays for the big studs in the space then you're going to end up winning via depth, right? I mean, this is predicated on your projections-to-VBD being correct and that you've chosen the proper weight method of evaluating starting players (as opposed to giving equal weight to backup points), but as long as you're confident in your projections and math you kind of will win out (albeit on paper) based on depth.

 
SelenaCat said:
Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I've been playing auction leagues for over 10 years now. Never once have they come anywhere near what calculations say they "should" go (as a note, I've found Draft Dominator's numbers to be particularly bad as they have far too steep a drop-off from the top talent). Not to say that it's not worth making some notations of how much a certain position is "worth," but expect the values to shift during the actual auction itself.

The best method I've found for assigning players is to set the baseline for VBD at the first non-$1 player at each position (which is admittedly much harder without historical information, and will typically be further down the depth chart than most expert's rankings predict since different owners often have different opinions on how much a low-end player is worth). Add up all the VBD of all the non-$1 players and divide by the amount of "free" money (i.e. the extra money left after the $1 minimum bid for players is removed). It's not perfect, but it will give you an idea of the relative value of each player.

Keep in mind that when you're auctioning, you are not trying to necessarily get bargains compared to your calculated value, but bargains compared to the other owners in your league. If everyone overpays for a position, sometimes you have to too to remain competitive. The key is to overpay less than the others do.
I think I understand what you're saying but isn't this...wrong?

The point being if you've done your calculations and have priced out VBD "points" and everyone overpays for the big studs in the space then you're going to end up winning via depth, right? I mean, this is predicated on your projections-to-VBD being correct and that you've chosen the proper weight method of evaluating starting players (as opposed to giving equal weight to backup points), but as long as you're confident in your projections and math you kind of will win out (albeit on paper) based on depth.
The problem is that depth doesn't win games when you can only start a limited number per position. Sure, you'll be more injury-resistant than most other teams, and you have a greater chance of finding a breakout player if you have more flyers, but if you're constantly starting a trio of WR3's versus teams starting a WR1, WR2 and WR4/5, you're probably going to lose every week without a lot of luck. Even with league with active trading, it's very hard to find owners willing to trade their starters for depth-level players, especially if there's good talent available on the waiver wire as well. (I suppose this could be considered part of the "studs and duds" versus "value" debate, but experience has shown me that going solely on value without any studs is a recipe for playing in the Toilet Bowl.)

Speaking from experience, the times that I stuck most closely to my calculated values I ended up with money left over at the end of the auction. Sure, I had my pick of the sleepers at the end of the auction, but I always regretted not spending that extra money on getting higher-quality players, even if their prices were above what I thought they were worth based on VBD. And inevitably, those teams fared rather poorly compared to years where I was more willing to "overpay" slightly at some of the top positions.

As an aside, part of the problem with values based on VBD is that every owner ranks players differently unless they're all using the same source for their projections. So while the top few players are generally consistent, the variability in the second and third tiers tends to flatten out the price curve as owners "reach" (based on your projections) for players they have ranked higher. This tends to make the drop-off in price more gradual than most calculated methods say it "should" go, based on VBD, and so you don't start getting the true value players until close to the backup-level talent.

 
SelenaCat said:
Setting values is a complete waste of time imo. 15 minutes in your values are out the window. Do get to know the suggested values for whatever site you are using and look for bargains (lots of people will use those values).

Do a crapload of practice drafts on espn or yahoo and get a feel for it. Get an idea for ranges players go in and setup tiers.

Auctions are WAY more fun than regular taking turns.
I've been playing auction leagues for over 10 years now. Never once have they come anywhere near what calculations say they "should" go (as a note, I've found Draft Dominator's numbers to be particularly bad as they have far too steep a drop-off from the top talent). Not to say that it's not worth making some notations of how much a certain position is "worth," but expect the values to shift during the actual auction itself.

The best method I've found for assigning players is to set the baseline for VBD at the first non-$1 player at each position (which is admittedly much harder without historical information, and will typically be further down the depth chart than most expert's rankings predict since different owners often have different opinions on how much a low-end player is worth). Add up all the VBD of all the non-$1 players and divide by the amount of "free" money (i.e. the extra money left after the $1 minimum bid for players is removed). It's not perfect, but it will give you an idea of the relative value of each player.

Keep in mind that when you're auctioning, you are not trying to necessarily get bargains compared to your calculated value, but bargains compared to the other owners in your league. If everyone overpays for a position, sometimes you have to too to remain competitive. The key is to overpay less than the others do.
I think I understand what you're saying but isn't this...wrong?

The point being if you've done your calculations and have priced out VBD "points" and everyone overpays for the big studs in the space then you're going to end up winning via depth, right? I mean, this is predicated on your projections-to-VBD being correct and that you've chosen the proper weight method of evaluating starting players (as opposed to giving equal weight to backup points), but as long as you're confident in your projections and math you kind of will win out (albeit on paper) based on depth.
The problem is that depth doesn't win games when you can only start a limited number per position. Sure, you'll be more injury-resistant than most other teams, and you have a greater chance of finding a breakout player if you have more flyers, but if you're constantly starting a trio of WR3's versus teams starting a WR1, WR2 and WR4/5, you're probably going to lose every week without a lot of luck. Even with league with active trading, it's very hard to find owners willing to trade their starters for depth-level players, especially if there's good talent available on the waiver wire as well. (I suppose this could be considered part of the "studs and duds" versus "value" debate, but experience has shown me that going solely on value without any studs is a recipe for playing in the Toilet Bowl.)

Speaking from experience, the times that I stuck most closely to my calculated values I ended up with money left over at the end of the auction. Sure, I had my pick of the sleepers at the end of the auction, but I always regretted not spending that extra money on getting higher-quality players, even if their prices were above what I thought they were worth based on VBD. And inevitably, those teams fared rather poorly compared to years where I was more willing to "overpay" slightly at some of the top positions.

As an aside, part of the problem with values based on VBD is that every owner ranks players differently unless they're all using the same source for their projections. So while the top few players are generally consistent, the variability in the second and third tiers tends to flatten out the price curve as owners "reach" (based on your projections) for players they have ranked higher. This tends to make the drop-off in price more gradual than most calculated methods say it "should" go, based on VBD, and so you don't start getting the true value players until close to the backup-level talent.
Ok. Big disclaimer: I have never done a fantasy auction but am looking to learn because I'm going to start a league with some friends and I'm trying to learn. I could be very wrong in how to prepare for these so take this into consideration. I'm not trying to say you're wrong at all--just trying to get this clear in my head because I'm about to go down a very wrong path otherwise. I really appreciate your input.

Now...

This doesn't sound like you're projecting the number of players taken at each position correctly then and/or discounting the "non-starting" players. Bear with me a second as I try to explain myself...

If a 12 team QRRWWWTKD format league projects to take 84 WRs (or roughly 7 per team) and you determine you're going to allocate 30% to WRs. (For the sake of simplification we're going to use $200 as your budget, or $60 toward WRs.) What this means to me is you're going to need to figure out how deep you need to be at the position, your immediate backup plan, and your reserves and what percentage of your WR allocation makes sense to go there. On the outset you would expect ~$720 to be spent on WRs throughout the entire draft but a majority of the players will actually be the reserves and likely be $1 or $2. So if $3 is spent on two back-of-the-depth WRs (or 5%) and you allocate an additional 15% (or ~$9) on the other 2 reserves you should still have $48 for 3 players.

At that time if you map VBD to price you should come out ahead regardless of how other teams draft. Yes, you might not (and based on auction mentality) land a true #1, but as other teams overpay you should end up with strong #2s. And *if* this ends up not being the case it means you received discounts at the WR position and those funds should be allocated elsewhere on top RBs, a top QB, or a top TE. This forces you to do some on-the-fly math (a dynamic VBD if you will) but will certainly result in a mathematical advantage as long as your projections are solid.

Right?

 
In theory, you are correct, but this assumes that everyone allocates their resources exactly the same. Some owners might choose to spend 35% on their WR's, for instance, believing them to be more predictable and therefore less of a risk, while others might allocate more to RB because they feel confident in their ability to pick up WR flyers or waiver breakouts. One owner might spent 90% of their budget on starters, driving up the cost of the top-end players, while another might only spend 75% and overbid on a bunch of the "bargain" players. Because of all these other variables, your calculated numbers might not accurately reflect the prices those players will go for in the actual auction

The part that surprised me most my first year was that there wasn't a huge drop-off in price from "starting" players to what I considered "backup" players. Again, this is largely due to different evaluations of talent (it only takes one or two owners to feel more strongly about a player to boost their cost up) and partly due to the belief that certain players have a chance to outperform their VBD (ideally, this should be calculated into your rankings/projections, but rarely is explicitly included). For example, looking at the AVN (the auction value calculated by VBD using the first non-$1 player as a baseline) for one of my leagues, the first players whose value exceeded the historical cost were QB14, RB27, and WR19 (2WR league, else it might have been further down). Even if I had Jimmy Graham, I don't think I'd really feel comfortable with a starting lineup along the lines of QB14, RB27, RB28, TE1, WR19, WR20. Would you? It'd be like trading your 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th round picks for the entire 7th round in a standard draft.

So the short answer is to use your calculated numbers as a guide, but don't use them as hard-and-fast limits. The point of the auction is to build a winning team, which means potentially "reaching" for a few players (just reaching less than the other owners) rather than being stuck with the team with all the depth that loses every week in head-to-head.

 
This is a useful thread, and something that all auction players should consider. In addition to building a worksheet yourself there are several free/inexpensive apps that have pricing functionality built in. If you are a FBG subscriber they have draft dominator that is decent (although I've found the auction values to be pretty far off). Really I have used many paid and free apps, and built worksheets myself to calculate auction values and have usually been disappointed with the inaccuracy. Last year I used a free app (now it costs $5 I think) that was surprisingly accurate--it uses league settings, keeper values, and historical league prices to estimate auction values. Obviously nothing will be 100% accurate, but it did a very good job. This year the tool has added a lineup optimizer feature, which is probably why it's a paid app now...anyway I really like it and plan to use it again. The site is crushmyleague.com and I'd say it's worth a look if nothing else. Good luck in your auctions this year!

 
This is really simple if you are in a recurring league. Get data from last year and run linear regression for x = draft slot by position (descending by dollar amount), y = dollar amount. Then sort your most trusted ADP by position so that 1 = RB1 and 2 = RB2 and then plug 'n play. This will give you the most accurate estimates for prices this year.

If it is a new league then find some AAVs for leagues most similar to your own (number of teams, scoring system, and lineup positions) and be ready to adjust pricing strategy quickly as it will become obvious which positions are going to have a positive or negative swing in value (possibly by as much as 25%).

But before the draft, make yourself a dream roster using the AAVs. Then do it again but add 10% to the value of all your guys in case you have to pay a premium for the guys you want. Some people will say take what the draft gives you, but I play auction so I can bet on the players I believe in. I have my limits, but I'll "overpay" for my guys. Typically you (should) have a few players you feel are undervalued, so paying more than their AAV doesn't mean you are overpaying for the player. A $25 player who you value at $40 is still a good deal at $30 even if other players with similar AAV/ADP went for $25.

I find it best to make several hypothetical rosters based on key players with difference maker prices. If you want Jimmy Graham then make a roster with and without him, because if you don't land him, you'll have a lot of cash to spread around and it's better to have a plan than to be scrambling for a new strategy.

 

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