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Pierre Garcon's value in 2014 in PPR leagues? (1 Viewer)

Archer

Footballguy
I am a little surprised about the lack of discussion about Pierre Garon this offseason. We all know last year he put up monster numbers in PPR leagues. 113 catches, 1346 yards, 5 TDs. He said he is now 100% over the toe injury. So what do we make of his prospects for this year? I think you could make a case his value and production could continue to climb.

Factors that could lead to career year:

1. We have never seen Garcon and RG3 play together during an entire game (much less season) where both players were 100% healthy. You could argue we have only seen one quarter of that, week 1 vs the Saints during RG3's rookie year, where both players were healthy until Garcon hurt his toe. (In that first quarter he had 4 receptions for 109 yards and a TD.) For the duration of Griffin's rookie season, Garcon was hobbled by his toe. And of course last year when Garcon appeared to be completely over the toe injury, Robert had an awful year, and was clearly affected by the brace and not healthy all year long.

2. Whether the Redskins sign DeSean Jackson after meeting with him on Monday or not, they should have more legitimate weapons in the offense this year. Garcon, Andre Roberts, maybe DeSean (or a rookie WR from a deep and talented class), Reed, Morris, that should help the offense have more sustainable drives and create more scoring opportunities for Garcon. If there was any kink in the armor last year for Garcon, it was the lack of TDs. Not hard to imagine a better offense with more touchdowns as RG3 ditches the brace this season and the Skins have more play makers on offense.

3. Jay Gruden vs Shannihans. I believe Gruden will improve this offense as he seems more open to customizing the offense by utilizing players strengths as opposed to forcing his game plan regardless of their input. Shanny and son were just awful with the play calling too. Very predictable.

4. Shootouts a plenty. Unless the Redskins get really lucky in the draft, they will continue to have major issues with their secondary. This should lead to a lot of high scoring games which can only help the offense and Garcon's numbers IMO.

Anyone else think Garcon could have a career year in 2014?

 
I don't think he leads the NFL in targets again and his numbers will drop.

That 1st quarter vs saints was helped significantly from 1 illegal pick play that went for a long TD.

I'm not sure how well they can do, but a decent wr2 and healthy reed will take away from garcon IMO.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?

 
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So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.

 
I would say he is a ppr stud again this year. WIth the additions the OP mentioned, there is a lot to look forward to. The addition of DJAX will definitely change things a bit but it works within the framework of what that team will likely do and garcon and Reed should move the chains, move the chains, move the chains.

Washington also likes to use that quick screen which is always deadly when RG3 is mobile and now especially with the speed of DJAX to influence it (assuming he signs),

I would say if there is any player that might take a fantasy hit it is Morris. With the new coaching, I think he might be the one guy that just doesn't truly fit the offensive philosophy.

 
Regardless of whether or not his production drops a bit or not, I do predict he is severely undervalued in PPR again.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
I don't agree with that at all. DJAX is a particular guy. He is going to stretch the field and do the end-a-round stuff, etc. ALl this addition does is pull the top of the coverage to give Garcon more space to operate in. Even last year, there were a fair amount of targets going to Armstrong and Hank and a few guys. Now, those just go to DJAX.

It is almost like saying "how can Demaryius Thomas still get so many targets or Colston from a few years ago when the Saints have 5-6 options. They just utilize their strengths and will be a passing team and the volume will work itself out.

From watching the Bengals over the years I would guess that what you will see is RG3 become a quick passer and will throw a bit more. They won't be running him around to get hit a lot, but will use the TEs and quick screens to get the ball out of his hands quicker. Just by design, the volume should support it. Take a quick look at how many passes the Bengals have been attempting the past few years and then look at how many targets that generated for AJ Green. I think he will be fine.

Now, with all that being said, Garcon had an incredible year last year so to say he might taper off some isn't a stretch either. I just don't think he falls and it is likely his expected outcome lies in the range of ~5% less than last year to ~5% more than last year, depending on how this team puts its offensive together.

 
Regardless of whether or not his production drops a bit or not, I do predict he is severely undervalued in PPR again.
Yes, if nothing else, this is very likely. He was criminally undervalued last year and I saw a lot of leagues where he was moved cheap and those teams made runs and won titles off the back of that 2nd half production.

He is simply not a sexy FF player that people hype up and fall in love with. Everyone wants to talk young rooks and the THomas and Dez and Julio's of the world but he is right there.

 
I'll be interested to see where his ADP ends up, but he's going to be a very risky play. What are you guys expecting out of the new coaching staff? What happened under Shanahan can be thrown out.

 
I'll be interested to see where his ADP ends up, but he's going to be a very risky play. What are you guys expecting out of the new coaching staff? What happened under Shanahan can be thrown out.
He is still a great WR, I love him as a player. If they do bring in DeSean his targets go down, thats not even debatable with the new weapons they have. So in order to get the value he losses in catches I say he ends up with 85 or so, he needs to make up for it in scores and he has never been a RZ threat and I dont expect him to start now especially with all the mouths to feed. The most he has ever had in a season is 6 TDs so to assume that goes up just because is an unreasonable assessment.

Next highest reception total after Garcons 113 was Reeds 45 and Moss 42, if you think DeSean wont pull in at least 65 to 70 catches you are kidding yourselves.

 
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So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
That is why I laugh at the people talking up Garcon but talking down Morris. The fact no one sees a problem with 113 catches to one player while the next highest got less than half at 45 is odd to me. That is clearly going to change as the lopsided factor happening two years in a row under new coaching and with more weapons is not likely.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
Ju

So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
Just to pick nits, you said a few posts ago to throw everything out that Shanahan did but then reference the passing/rushing tendencies from last year with the Bengals and the Redskins.

I think you can throw those out also because its different personnel and it seemed to me that the Redskins over-emphasized the run last year to protect RG3 and didn't utilize their strengths. Just my 2 cents on that but, overall, I think this will be far less impact because these players are so different in the type they are.

DJAX will do the endaround stuff. He will do the stuff that streaks down the field. A target to him is a target to him and obviously lessens Armstrong, Hankerson, Moss, etc. But at the same time, if a defense is being stretched, that leaves A LOT of room underneath for Reed and Garcon. So maybe instead of catching 2/17, he catches 1 for 28. In overall ff production, I don't think Garcon changes and, if nothing else, he is finally healthy. He was getting his points last year, but those last 3-4 games, he was a dead man walking.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
That is why I laugh at the people talking up Garcon but talking down Morris. The fact no one sees a problem with 113 catches to one player while the next highest got less than half at 45 is odd to me. That is clearly going to change as the lopsided factor happening two years in a row under new coaching and with more weapons is not likely.
Aj Green was targeted 178 times last year. Gresham, 68, Jones, 78.

It's not as different as you think, especially when you have to remember that all the Bengals wrs/Tes were healthy all year and the Washington players were all in and out at times, supressing their targets.

THE most important thing for the Redskins to do is protect RG3. To do that you can either run a ton (helps Morris in fantasy) or throw quicker. Now go look at which one the Bengals have done. Now keep in the back of your head the type of division these teams are in. Now add to that the type of player Washington is bringing in (vs. a top lineman, blocking TE, etc).

Washington is in a Throw and throw often division.

To me, it just seems natural that they hire this type of coach and add these types of players and they protect their franchise QB by getting the ball out of his hands quick. They can't win in this division by running Morris all day. They just can't. And you don't bring in a receiving weapon of DJAX's caliber (and baggage) without the intention of using him.

 
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I would be VERY happy if DeSean got 75% of Robinson and Moss' targets (46 and 79) with the rest filtering towards Roberts and Reed.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
Just to pick nits, you said a few posts ago to throw everything out that Shanahan did but then reference the passing/rushing tendencies from last year with the Bengals and the Redskins.

I think you can throw those out also because its different personnel and it seemed to me that the Redskins over-emphasized the run last year to protect RG3 and didn't utilize their strengths. Just my 2 cents on that but, overall, I think this will be far less impact because these players are so different in the type they are.

DJAX will do the endaround stuff. He will do the stuff that streaks down the field. A target to him is a target to him and obviously lessens Armstrong, Hankerson, Moss, etc. But at the same time, if a defense is being stretched, that leaves A LOT of room underneath for Reed and Garcon. So maybe instead of catching 2/17, he catches 1 for 28. In overall ff production, I don't think Garcon changes and, if nothing else, he is finally healthy. He was getting his points last year, but those last 3-4 games, he was a dead man walking.
Yes, that was intentional. I wanted to highlight the passing/rushing discrepancies under Shanahan that were likely to be abandoned while showcasing Gruden's more balanced attack. I'm not sure how you read that the Redskins were 9th in passing attempts and 22nd in RB rushes and came to the conclusion that they over-emphasized the run to protect RG3, though. A curious bit of deductive reasoning, I must say.

I do agree that we can't assume Gruden fails to adapt to new personnel and just continues at his old pace, but it is at least worth noting what tendencies he had last year. I think RG3 and Morris are likely upgrades to Dalton and BJGE, so Gruden will have options. He is definitely taking a downgrade defensively, so that will have to impact his play calling to some extent.

Personally, I'll be shocked if Garcon sees more than 140 targets. He could easily dip below 120. But let's say he ends up with 130 targets and 81 receptions. If he's the one catching underneath routes and averaging 12-13 YPR, he's going to need some significant TD production to hold any value at all outside of PPR (although this is supposed to be a PPR topic according to the OP). I think last year was a bit weird for him as far as TD production. Previously he'd been near 1 TD per 11 to 12 receptions. If I had to make a prediction for next year, it would be 81/1053/7

 
The Redskins threw the ball 611 times last year, 9th highest in the league, so there's not a lot of room to increase targets. Now they've added DJax and Roberts who are massive improvements over Moss and Hankerson. Reed is in his 2nd year and will likely be more involved.

I'm expecting 80/1000/6 out of Garcon this year.

 
Posted this in the other thread, when looking at breakdown of targets last year with Garcon and Reed on the field together-

Reed averaged about 7 targets per game during the season. Garcon averaged 11 targets per game while Reed was playing. He averaged 12 per game during the time Reed was out. And that 1 more average target was mostly due to his huge 18 target game vs the Cowboys. The targets were still there regardless of whether Reed played or not.

Again, I think to assume Garcon will have a HUGE decrease in catches/targets is a mistake, especially if Moss is cut and his 74 targets are available.

 
Posted this in the other thread, when looking at breakdown of targets last year with Garcon and Reed on the field together-

Reed averaged about 7 targets per game during the season. Garcon averaged 11 targets per game while Reed was playing. He averaged 12 per game during the time Reed was out. And that 1 more average target was mostly due to his huge 18 target game vs the Cowboys. The targets were still there regardless of whether Reed played or not.

Again, I think to assume Garcon will have a HUGE decrease in catches/targets is a mistake, especially if Moss is cut and his 74 targets are available.
How often has he had 100 catches before last year? A mistake is thinking he can get 100 every year.

 
The Redskins threw the ball 611 times last year, 9th highest in the league, so there's not a lot of room to increase targets. Now they've added DJax and Roberts who are massive improvements over Moss and Hankerson. Reed is in his 2nd year and will likely be more involved.

I'm expecting 80/1000/6 out of Garcon this year.
85/1200/6 is my prediction.

 
I would say he is a ppr stud again this year. WIth the additions the OP mentioned, there is a lot to look forward to. The addition of DJAX will definitely change things a bit but it works within the framework of what that team will likely do and garcon and Reed should move the chains, move the chains, move the chains.

Washington also likes to use that quick screen which is always deadly when RG3 is mobile and now especially with the speed of DJAX to influence it (assuming he signs),

I would say if there is any player that might take a fantasy hit it is Morris. With the new coaching, I think he might be the one guy that just doesn't truly fit the offensive philosophy.
Pretty much my thoughts. I think his number of receptions drop to around 100 and his yardage drops accordingly. I think his TD number increases by a few. DJax is going to open things up for Garcon.

 
False Start said:
cstu said:
The Redskins threw the ball 611 times last year, 9th highest in the league, so there's not a lot of room to increase targets. Now they've added DJax and Roberts who are massive improvements over Moss and Hankerson. Reed is in his 2nd year and will likely be more involved.

I'm expecting 80/1000/6 out of Garcon this year.
85/1200/6 is my prediction.
I would hope for 2-4 more TDs with a healthy accurate RG3 but that still isn't too bad.

 
Why D-Jax wouldn't really hurt Pierre Garcon's Fantasy value

By Larry Hartstein | CBSSports.com

Redskins receiver Pierre Garcon led the NFL with 184 targets last season but finished 14th among Fantasy wideouts. It stands to reason DeSean Jackson -- if he signs with Washington -- will ciphon targets away from Garcon, hurting his Fantasy stock.

But when you look at the whole picture, Garcon shouldn't suffer much, if at all.

1. Only 124 of Garcon's 184 targets were catchable. That's a shocking number of bad passes and throwaways. Robert Griffin III wasn't fully healthy; his completion percentage dropped to 60.1 from the 65.6 he posted as a rookie.

With RG3 shedding his knee brace and looking 100 percent, Garcon should get a higher percentage of catchable balls. RG3 already has begun working out with his receivers, building chemistry, a far cry from last offseason.

2. Garcon routinely saw double coverage last year. With Jackson, Andre Roberts and a healthy Jordan Reed on the field, Garcon won't be the sole focus of opposing coordinators.

3. The Bengals threw 587 times last year, 12th-most in the league, in Jay Gruden's quick-hitting, pass-oriented scheme. And it's not like they were playing from behind all the time. Gruden will call plays in Washington.

If RG3 approaches 600 pass attempts and Garcon and Jackson split 300 of those, Garcon could be just as productive as he was last year when he had 1,346 receiving yards. Figure 150 quality targets, 90-plus catches.

4. Garcon had a terrible touchdown rate last year, catching five scoring grabs on 113 receptions. He got a healthy number of red-zone targets, 19, but caught just eight of those for 56 yards and four scores. (Larry Fitzgerald led WRs with 24 red-zone targets).

With a more efficient offense and a little more luck, Garcon could make eight to 10 touchdown catches.

CBS Sports Fantasy experts currently rank Garcon anywhere from 10th to 14th among wideouts. Dave Richard says he won't drop Garcon much if Jackson signs with Washington.
 
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FF Ninja said:
Jrodicus said:
False Start said:
Archer said:
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
If is a powerful word. If things stayed the same every year, then this game would be a lot easier to predict. But things change, and you can't just look at last year's pie and try to slice it differently this year. Things rarely work that way, especially when you have a new regime and big-name additions.

I don't know about your leagues, but in all of my dynasty and redraft leagues, Decker was extremely undervalued because everyone thought his numbers would suffer horribly. People were sayin that he would be the 4th or 5th scoring player on the team. That didn't happen. Obviously nobody predicted Peyton would have the season that he did, but thinking that there wouldn't be a bigger pie to share was silly, imo.

RG3 was 25th in the league in completion percentage at 60.1%; Cousings was even worse at 52.3%. Combined, they had a 58.15 % completion rate and 355 completions.

RG3 doesn't have to attempt more passes; he just needs to complete more of them (and not share time with Cousins).

With a completion rate of 63.0%, which would've been good for 14th best last season, they would've completed 384 passes - good for 4th in the league.

Perhaps "pass-happy" was a poor choice of words. They don't have to pass the ball more, they just need to be better at it, and adding DeSean could help that.

 
we should probably wait to panic until DeSean actually signs
I think there should be more concern if Jackson isn't signed, personally. As others have pointed out, I don't think the targets Garçon had last year are attainable. Therefore, if he is to reach similar fantasy numbers then he will need greater efficiency. Jackson will provide that IMO.

 
FF Ninja said:
Shutout said:
FF Ninja said:
Jrodicus said:
False Start said:
Archer said:
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
Just to pick nits, you said a few posts ago to throw everything out that Shanahan did but then reference the passing/rushing tendencies from last year with the Bengals and the Redskins.

I think you can throw those out also because its different personnel and it seemed to me that the Redskins over-emphasized the run last year to protect RG3 and didn't utilize their strengths. Just my 2 cents on that but, overall, I think this will be far less impact because these players are so different in the type they are.

DJAX will do the endaround stuff. He will do the stuff that streaks down the field. A target to him is a target to him and obviously lessens Armstrong, Hankerson, Moss, etc. But at the same time, if a defense is being stretched, that leaves A LOT of room underneath for Reed and Garcon. So maybe instead of catching 2/17, he catches 1 for 28. In overall ff production, I don't think Garcon changes and, if nothing else, he is finally healthy. He was getting his points last year, but those last 3-4 games, he was a dead man walking.
Yes, that was intentional. I wanted to highlight the passing/rushing discrepancies under Shanahan that were likely to be abandoned while showcasing Gruden's more balanced attack. I'm not sure how you read that the Redskins were 9th in passing attempts and 22nd in RB rushes and came to the conclusion that they over-emphasized the run to protect RG3, though. A curious bit of deductive reasoning, I must say.

I do agree that we can't assume Gruden fails to adapt to new personnel and just continues at his old pace, but it is at least worth noting what tendencies he had last year. I think RG3 and Morris are likely upgrades to Dalton and BJGE, so Gruden will have options. He is definitely taking a downgrade defensively, so that will have to impact his play calling to some extent.

Personally, I'll be shocked if Garcon sees more than 140 targets. He could easily dip below 120. But let's say he ends up with 130 targets and 81 receptions. If he's the one catching underneath routes and averaging 12-13 YPR, he's going to need some significant TD production to hold any value at all outside of PPR (although this is supposed to be a PPR topic according to the OP). I think last year was a bit weird for him as far as TD production. Previously he'd been near 1 TD per 11 to 12 receptions. If I had to make a prediction for next year, it would be 81/1053/7
Looking at this: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-rushing-attempts-per-game/2013/

Redskins were 13th in attempts and 5th in rush yards/game. That and just watching the games led me to believe that, while watching them, they seemed to be doing things that were designed to protect RG3 instead of perhaps using the best options at their disposal.

All that is just opinion from one person but that's how it looked to me.

 
we should probably wait to panic until DeSean actually signs
I think there should be more concern if Jackson isn't signed, personally. As others have pointed out, I don't think the targets Garçon had last year are attainable. Therefore, if he is to reach similar fantasy numbers then he will need greater efficiency. Jackson will provide that IMO.
One of the things about the "targets" being able to be sustained is a little skewed. Watching those games last year, it seemed like Washington threw a TON of balls that were nowhere near able to be caught. I guess you can say you "target" Garcon because he was the closest player to it but being 8 yards away or going down the sideline as it sails by isn't really the same as what we think of being targeted.

Garcon would have went for 400 more yards if 30-40 of those balls actually been catchable.

 
I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
 
I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
This is what I have been trying to say. Garcon WILL benefit from this signing. I don't see how he can't. He and Reed both will have a lot more room underneath the D because DeSean WILL be covered on those deep routes. Pick your poison kind of thing. Alfred won't see 8 in the box much either. He should also be thrilled with this pickup.

 
I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
This is what I have been trying to say. Garcon WILL benefit from this signing. I don't see how he can't. He and Reed both will have a lot more room underneath the D because DeSean WILL be covered on those deep routes. Pick your poison kind of thing. Alfred won't see 8 in the box much either. He should also be thrilled with this pickup.
Disagree with everything you say. Signing a marquee name to take targets away does not help Garcon in a fantasy standpoint. Especially when that guy does not play well with others and will most def cry if he doesnt get his targets. So Reed and Garcon benefit when they sign someone to take production away?

I believe this signing helps Morris, RG3 and the defense not other people trying to compete with DJax to catch balls. Your devils advocate approach that a WR taking coverage is a good thought but never really works out that way. Would this signing of helped Dez, Calvin, and Green or hurt their production? Same thing applies here, it would hurt their production as their levels are already elite anyone competing for passes will hurt them if that other WR coming in was just recently a WR1 himself. DJax is not a compliment player, he is a get his player. That is different than the role of Tate for Detroit. That type of move helps a #1 WR, not signing another great WR.

 
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two WRs on the same team can be highly productive

Marshall/Jeffery

Moss/Welker

Moss/Chris Carter

Decker/Demaryious

However, Garcons targets and opportunity should be reduced some, since as a lot have pointed it, it probably was not sustainable.

It really hinges on QB play, health, and other options Jordan Reeds Health being a big one

Not a death blow to Garcons value, but I certainly wont be drafting him as highly as I would have without DeSean in the mix

 
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I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
This is what I have been trying to say. Garcon WILL benefit from this signing. I don't see how he can't. He and Reed both will have a lot more room underneath the D because DeSean WILL be covered on those deep routes. Pick your poison kind of thing. Alfred won't see 8 in the box much either. He should also be thrilled with this pickup.
Disagree with everything you say. Signing a marquee name to take targets away does not help Garcon in a fantasy standpoint. Especially when that guy does not play well with others and will most def cry if he doesnt get his targets. So Reed and Garcon benefit when they sign someone to take production away?
Take targets away from....Moss?

Yes, Garcon had 184 targets last year, but that was out of 611. Meaning, there were 427 targets that went to people not named Garcon.

As others have pointed out, many of those "targets" weren't even catchable balls. Garcon's targets could go down without it horribly affecting the number of catchable balls thrown his way. Having another legit threat at WR may help him get a few more TDs as well.

 
I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
This is what I have been trying to say. Garcon WILL benefit from this signing. I don't see how he can't. He and Reed both will have a lot more room underneath the D because DeSean WILL be covered on those deep routes. Pick your poison kind of thing. Alfred won't see 8 in the box much either. He should also be thrilled with this pickup.
Disagree with everything you say. Signing a marquee name to take targets away does not help Garcon in a fantasy standpoint. Especially when that guy does not play well with others and will most def cry if he doesnt get his targets. So Reed and Garcon benefit when they sign someone to take production away?
Take targets away from....Moss?

Yes, Garcon had 184 targets last year, but that was out of 611. Meaning, there were 427 targets that went to people not named Garcon.

As others have pointed out, many of those "targets" weren't even catchable balls. Garcon's targets could go down without it horribly affecting the number of catchable balls thrown his way. Having another legit threat at WR may help him get a few more TDs as well.
Garcon had 184 targets - the rest of the WR's combined only had 209.

DeSean had 119 targets and Roberts had 73 last year. Unless you expect Griffin to pass a lot more then Garcon is going to lose targets. I put the over/under at about 130.

 
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I think it likely that Garçon takes a pretty massive hit, personally. I expect Washington to be a better, more balanced team in 2014 -- so likely fewer passing attempts overall. Jackson & Roberts >>> Moss & Hankerson, so they'll both see a much higher % than last year's WR2 / WR3. Plus Reed is likely to miss fewer games. Garcon's 2013 was the result of a perfect storm of minimal competition and a team playing from behind all year -- I see no way he comes close to matching those numbers moving forward.

 
I hope it does lead to more yards and scores, because his catches will suffer.

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to face "more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team."
Defenses weren't threatened by Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan or Santana Moss, which led to constant bracket coverage and safety help on Garcon. He still led the league with 113 receptions a year ago, but averaged just 11.9 yards per reception and scored a meager five touchdowns. Garcon won't catch nearly as many balls this season, but the arrival of DeSean Jackson will free him up to find more space and make more big plays. Garcon remains on the WR2 radar.
This is what I have been trying to say. Garcon WILL benefit from this signing. I don't see how he can't. He and Reed both will have a lot more room underneath the D because DeSean WILL be covered on those deep routes. Pick your poison kind of thing. Alfred won't see 8 in the box much either. He should also be thrilled with this pickup.
Disagree with everything you say. Signing a marquee name to take targets away does not help Garcon in a fantasy standpoint. Especially when that guy does not play well with others and will most def cry if he doesnt get his targets. So Reed and Garcon benefit when they sign someone to take production away?
Take targets away from....Moss?

Yes, Garcon had 184 targets last year, but that was out of 611. Meaning, there were 427 targets that went to people not named Garcon.

As others have pointed out, many of those "targets" weren't even catchable balls. Garcon's targets could go down without it horribly affecting the number of catchable balls thrown his way. Having another legit threat at WR may help him get a few more TDs as well.
Garcon had 184 targets - the rest of the WR's combined only had 209.

DeSean had 119 targets and Roberts had 73 last year. Unless you expect Griffin to pass a lot more then Garcon is going to lose targets. I put the over/under at about 130.
ESPN shows DeSean having 126 and WRs not named Garcon with 172, but I'll go with your numbers.

Garcon + DeSean + Roberts = 376 targets. That's still under the 393 targets you say that their WRs had last year. Even if you reduced each of their targets by 10%, Garcon would still have 166 targets and there would be 55 targets left over for the #4 WR option. (Last year's #4 WR option, Robinson, had 46 targets).

Again, not saying it will happen, but I think it's highly unlikely that the "pie" gets divided up evenly among the WRs.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
If is a powerful word. If things stayed the same every year, then this game would be a lot easier to predict. But things change, and you can't just look at last year's pie and try to slice it differently this year. Things rarely work that way, especially when you have a new regime and big-name additions.

I don't know about your leagues, but in all of my dynasty and redraft leagues, Decker was extremely undervalued because everyone thought his numbers would suffer horribly. People were sayin that he would be the 4th or 5th scoring player on the team. That didn't happen. Obviously nobody predicted Peyton would have the season that he did, but thinking that there wouldn't be a bigger pie to share was silly, imo.

RG3 was 25th in the league in completion percentage at 60.1%; Cousings was even worse at 52.3%. Combined, they had a 58.15 % completion rate and 355 completions.

RG3 doesn't have to attempt more passes; he just needs to complete more of them (and not share time with Cousins).

With a completion rate of 63.0%, which would've been good for 14th best last season, they would've completed 384 passes - good for 4th in the league.

Perhaps "pass-happy" was a poor choice of words. They don't have to pass the ball more, they just need to be better at it, and adding DeSean could help that.
First, no, it wasn't silly to think there wouldn't be a bigger pie. Peyton was 37 last year. It obviously worked out well for those who inexplicably thought there'd magically be a larger pie, but I'd say the % of 37 year old QBs who put up a better year than at age 36 (much less a career/record shattering year) has to be extremely small. I know Favre's first year in MIN was nice (I forget what age he was), but again, extremely rare. Most guys are holding a clipboard if they are lucky enough to be in the league at 37.

I've always liked Decker (drafted him in many leagues in 2011 and 2012), but barring a record year by Peyton, I don't think he was that undervalued last year. He had an ADP around WR21 which is fair for a guy whose slice of the pie just got smaller and whose value was found primarily in TDs the year before. Had Peyton not thrown the ball 13% more, thrown for 17% more yards, and 49% more TDs and instead merely replicated his age 36 performance, except with Welker present, Decker wouldn't have cracked 80/1000/8. Therefore, in hindsight, it's obvious that betting against Decker was actually the smart/percentage play, but those who chose to bet on him pulled the equivalent of a runner-runner inside straight in hold 'em. Not a smart play, but it worked out... further strengthening the statement "better lucky than good".

So I wouldn't look at last year's fluke occurrence in Denver to justify optimism for Garcon. It is certainly possible that Garcon has a good year, but it won't be for the same reasons Decker was good last year. Maybe DeSean and RG3 have poor chemistry and RG3 decides to largely ignore him. Maybe RG3 comes into his own as a passer in year 3. Maybe the defense and running game fall apart and he throws the ball a Stafford-esque 700 times. There are plenty of scenarios that are each "lottery odds" on their own, but when added together you get "outside chance".

One thing that should be mentioned is that Andre Roberts is actually a really good WR. Probably better than 2013 Santana Moss, or at least equivalent. So let's not get excited if Moss is cut. There is a strong possibility that his replacement is actually an improvement, so it's not like his 74 targets will be split mostly amongst the WR1 and WR2.

 
One thing that should be mentioned is that Andre Roberts is actually a really good WR. Probably better than 2013 Santana Moss, or at least equivalent. So let's not get excited if Moss is cut. There is a strong possibility that his replacement is actually an improvement, so it's not like his 74 targets will be split mostly amongst the WR1 and WR2.
Andre Roberts now is better than Santana Moss now.

 
Garcon's definitely going to take a hit compared to last year, but he's also got deep speed on his own if he's not facing safety help. Would expect more big plays again (unlike last year). But net he'll be down some IMO.

 
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
If is a powerful word. If things stayed the same every year, then this game would be a lot easier to predict. But things change, and you can't just look at last year's pie and try to slice it differently this year. Things rarely work that way, especially when you have a new regime and big-name additions.

I don't know about your leagues, but in all of my dynasty and redraft leagues, Decker was extremely undervalued because everyone thought his numbers would suffer horribly. People were sayin that he would be the 4th or 5th scoring player on the team. That didn't happen. Obviously nobody predicted Peyton would have the season that he did, but thinking that there wouldn't be a bigger pie to share was silly, imo.

RG3 was 25th in the league in completion percentage at 60.1%; Cousings was even worse at 52.3%. Combined, they had a 58.15 % completion rate and 355 completions.

RG3 doesn't have to attempt more passes; he just needs to complete more of them (and not share time with Cousins).

With a completion rate of 63.0%, which would've been good for 14th best last season, they would've completed 384 passes - good for 4th in the league.

Perhaps "pass-happy" was a poor choice of words. They don't have to pass the ball more, they just need to be better at it, and adding DeSean could help that.
First, no, it wasn't silly to think there wouldn't be a bigger pie. Peyton was 37 last year. It obviously worked out well for those who inexplicably thought there'd magically be a larger pie, but I'd say the % of 37 year old QBs who put up a better year than at age 36 (much less a career/record shattering year) has to be extremely small. I know Favre's first year in MIN was nice (I forget what age he was), but again, extremely rare. Most guys are holding a clipboard if they are lucky enough to be in the league at 37.

I've always liked Decker (drafted him in many leagues in 2011 and 2012), but barring a record year by Peyton, I don't think he was that undervalued last year. He had an ADP around WR21 which is fair for a guy whose slice of the pie just got smaller and whose value was found primarily in TDs the year before. Had Peyton not thrown the ball 13% more, thrown for 17% more yards, and 49% more TDs and instead merely replicated his age 36 performance, except with Welker present, Decker wouldn't have cracked 80/1000/8. Therefore, in hindsight, it's obvious that betting against Decker was actually the smart/percentage play, but those who chose to bet on him pulled the equivalent of a runner-runner inside straight in hold 'em. Not a smart play, but it worked out... further strengthening the statement "better lucky than good".

So I wouldn't look at last year's fluke occurrence in Denver to justify optimism for Garcon. It is certainly possible that Garcon has a good year, but it won't be for the same reasons Decker was good last year. Maybe DeSean and RG3 have poor chemistry and RG3 decides to largely ignore him. Maybe RG3 comes into his own as a passer in year 3. Maybe the defense and running game fall apart and he throws the ball a Stafford-esque 700 times. There are plenty of scenarios that are each "lottery odds" on their own, but when added together you get "outside chance".

One thing that should be mentioned is that Andre Roberts is actually a really good WR. Probably better than 2013 Santana Moss, or at least equivalent. So let's not get excited if Moss is cut. There is a strong possibility that his replacement is actually an improvement, so it's not like his 74 targets will be split mostly amongst the WR1 and WR2.
Is it possible that Peyton's numbers got better because he had better offensive weapons?

Was it "magic" that there was a much larger pie in NE in 2007 compared to 2006, or did them bringing in Welker and Moss have something to do with Brady's record-breaking season?

When a team brings in better offensive weapons, they tend to put up better stats. Kind of crazy how that works.

 
Jason Reid, Washington Post

Garcon’s work immediately becomes easier. Few Redskins players were as mentally drained as Garcon after last season’s 3-13 debacle. The losing was bad enough, and Garcon also was frustrated because he rarely had the opportunity to help the Redskins as much as he envisioned, people in the organization say. The problem? Double coverage.

There’s no nice way to put this: Garcon was the only Redskins wide receiver who concerned opponents. He often was covered by the cornerback opposite him and a safety. On deep routes, Garcon almost always was “bracketed.” Even if Garcon was not completely double-teamed, a safety usually would move toward Garcon’s side of the field.

I know what you’re thinking: If Garcon received so much attention, other receivers should have been open. In theory, that’s correct. Unfortunately for the Redskins, it didn’t work out that way.
And even if Jackson doesn’t produce a home-run play, his mere presence will help Garcon because of the attention he will receive from the defense. Defenses can’t double-team everybody. Garcon should face more single coverage in the Redskins’ first eight games next season than he did in his first two seasons with the team.
 
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Jrodicus said:
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
If is a powerful word. If things stayed the same every year, then this game would be a lot easier to predict. But things change, and you can't just look at last year's pie and try to slice it differently this year. Things rarely work that way, especially when you have a new regime and big-name additions.

I don't know about your leagues, but in all of my dynasty and redraft leagues, Decker was extremely undervalued because everyone thought his numbers would suffer horribly. People were sayin that he would be the 4th or 5th scoring player on the team. That didn't happen. Obviously nobody predicted Peyton would have the season that he did, but thinking that there wouldn't be a bigger pie to share was silly, imo.

RG3 was 25th in the league in completion percentage at 60.1%; Cousings was even worse at 52.3%. Combined, they had a 58.15 % completion rate and 355 completions.

RG3 doesn't have to attempt more passes; he just needs to complete more of them (and not share time with Cousins).

With a completion rate of 63.0%, which would've been good for 14th best last season, they would've completed 384 passes - good for 4th in the league.

Perhaps "pass-happy" was a poor choice of words. They don't have to pass the ball more, they just need to be better at it, and adding DeSean could help that.
First, no, it wasn't silly to think there wouldn't be a bigger pie. Peyton was 37 last year. It obviously worked out well for those who inexplicably thought there'd magically be a larger pie, but I'd say the % of 37 year old QBs who put up a better year than at age 36 (much less a career/record shattering year) has to be extremely small. I know Favre's first year in MIN was nice (I forget what age he was), but again, extremely rare. Most guys are holding a clipboard if they are lucky enough to be in the league at 37.

I've always liked Decker (drafted him in many leagues in 2011 and 2012), but barring a record year by Peyton, I don't think he was that undervalued last year. He had an ADP around WR21 which is fair for a guy whose slice of the pie just got smaller and whose value was found primarily in TDs the year before. Had Peyton not thrown the ball 13% more, thrown for 17% more yards, and 49% more TDs and instead merely replicated his age 36 performance, except with Welker present, Decker wouldn't have cracked 80/1000/8. Therefore, in hindsight, it's obvious that betting against Decker was actually the smart/percentage play, but those who chose to bet on him pulled the equivalent of a runner-runner inside straight in hold 'em. Not a smart play, but it worked out... further strengthening the statement "better lucky than good".

So I wouldn't look at last year's fluke occurrence in Denver to justify optimism for Garcon. It is certainly possible that Garcon has a good year, but it won't be for the same reasons Decker was good last year. Maybe DeSean and RG3 have poor chemistry and RG3 decides to largely ignore him. Maybe RG3 comes into his own as a passer in year 3. Maybe the defense and running game fall apart and he throws the ball a Stafford-esque 700 times. There are plenty of scenarios that are each "lottery odds" on their own, but when added together you get "outside chance".

One thing that should be mentioned is that Andre Roberts is actually a really good WR. Probably better than 2013 Santana Moss, or at least equivalent. So let's not get excited if Moss is cut. There is a strong possibility that his replacement is actually an improvement, so it's not like his 74 targets will be split mostly amongst the WR1 and WR2.
Is it possible that Peyton's numbers got better because he had better offensive weapons?

Was it "magic" that there was a much larger pie in NE in 2007 compared to 2006, or did them bringing in Welker and Moss have something to do with Brady's record-breaking season?

When a team brings in better offensive weapons, they tend to put up better stats. Kind of crazy how that works.
Really? That's the best you've got? In 2012, at age 36, Peyton put up the best season he'd had since he was 28. And then they added a 32 year old slot WR. That is not reason enough to expect an offensive explosion. It was nothing like The 2007 Patriots when Brady was in his prime and he went from having NO weapons at WR to having two great weapons in their prime. I'd say nice try... but it wasn't. When a blind squirrel finds a nut, he should just be happy rather than acting like he's become the oracle.

 
Jrodicus said:
So DeSean is a Redskin, and Garcon was pulling to get him aboard.

Anyone have thoughts on Garcon's production this year?
How can anyone think Garcons production gets better when they got a guy who will demand a certain amount of targets himself in DeSean? Garcon reached his peak year last year. Thinking more weapons helps Garcon is just wrong as that means more to take away from Garcon. The reason Garcon got all the targets was who else was going to get them? Reed, blah blah, lots of teams have TEs, but a 2nd WR who is a play maker is damning to his value WR2 at best for Garcon. Just how it is, sorry Garcon fans but his highest point of value came and went.
Weren't people saying last year that the addition of Welker and a healthy Julius were going to hurt DT's and Decker's production?

The Redskins were a middle-of-the-pack passing offense last year, but were top 5 in rushing YPG. Wtih the coaching change, I think it's possible that they become more pass-happy. If that happens, Garcon could be unaffected, DeSean could still get his, and Morris' carries would suffer (although a better offense would suggest he get more TD opportunities).

I wouldn't bank on Garcon's numbers being the same or better, but I don't think DeSean in town means that Garcon takes a big hit.
Yes, and they'd have been right if Peyton had not had the best passing season ever. If Peyton had replicated 2012 then Decker and DT would've been overdrafted as their slice of the pie got smaller. Luckily for those who did not pay attention to that obvious fact, the pie got much, much larger which no one predicted. People who drafted them were just like, I'm sure thing will work out. The math doesn't add up, but they'll get theirs. In this case, the blind squirrels founds nuts, but realize that if you expect Garcon to lead the league in targets again then RG3 is going to have to throw the ball a LOT or DeSean isn't going to get that many.

Last year the Redskins ranked 9th in passing attempts while the Bengals ranked 12th. As for RB rushes, Washington ranked 22nd while the Bengals ranked 10th. So I'd be more interested in Alfred Morris than Peirre Garcon at this point, as it appears he will now be getting a smaller piece of a smaller pie.
If is a powerful word. If things stayed the same every year, then this game would be a lot easier to predict. But things change, and you can't just look at last year's pie and try to slice it differently this year. Things rarely work that way, especially when you have a new regime and big-name additions.

I don't know about your leagues, but in all of my dynasty and redraft leagues, Decker was extremely undervalued because everyone thought his numbers would suffer horribly. People were sayin that he would be the 4th or 5th scoring player on the team. That didn't happen. Obviously nobody predicted Peyton would have the season that he did, but thinking that there wouldn't be a bigger pie to share was silly, imo.

RG3 was 25th in the league in completion percentage at 60.1%; Cousings was even worse at 52.3%. Combined, they had a 58.15 % completion rate and 355 completions.

RG3 doesn't have to attempt more passes; he just needs to complete more of them (and not share time with Cousins).

With a completion rate of 63.0%, which would've been good for 14th best last season, they would've completed 384 passes - good for 4th in the league.

Perhaps "pass-happy" was a poor choice of words. They don't have to pass the ball more, they just need to be better at it, and adding DeSean could help that.
First, no, it wasn't silly to think there wouldn't be a bigger pie. Peyton was 37 last year. It obviously worked out well for those who inexplicably thought there'd magically be a larger pie, but I'd say the % of 37 year old QBs who put up a better year than at age 36 (much less a career/record shattering year) has to be extremely small. I know Favre's first year in MIN was nice (I forget what age he was), but again, extremely rare. Most guys are holding a clipboard if they are lucky enough to be in the league at 37.

I've always liked Decker (drafted him in many leagues in 2011 and 2012), but barring a record year by Peyton, I don't think he was that undervalued last year. He had an ADP around WR21 which is fair for a guy whose slice of the pie just got smaller and whose value was found primarily in TDs the year before. Had Peyton not thrown the ball 13% more, thrown for 17% more yards, and 49% more TDs and instead merely replicated his age 36 performance, except with Welker present, Decker wouldn't have cracked 80/1000/8. Therefore, in hindsight, it's obvious that betting against Decker was actually the smart/percentage play, but those who chose to bet on him pulled the equivalent of a runner-runner inside straight in hold 'em. Not a smart play, but it worked out... further strengthening the statement "better lucky than good".

So I wouldn't look at last year's fluke occurrence in Denver to justify optimism for Garcon. It is certainly possible that Garcon has a good year, but it won't be for the same reasons Decker was good last year. Maybe DeSean and RG3 have poor chemistry and RG3 decides to largely ignore him. Maybe RG3 comes into his own as a passer in year 3. Maybe the defense and running game fall apart and he throws the ball a Stafford-esque 700 times. There are plenty of scenarios that are each "lottery odds" on their own, but when added together you get "outside chance".

One thing that should be mentioned is that Andre Roberts is actually a really good WR. Probably better than 2013 Santana Moss, or at least equivalent. So let's not get excited if Moss is cut. There is a strong possibility that his replacement is actually an improvement, so it's not like his 74 targets will be split mostly amongst the WR1 and WR2.
Is it possible that Peyton's numbers got better because he had better offensive weapons?

Was it "magic" that there was a much larger pie in NE in 2007 compared to 2006, or did them bringing in Welker and Moss have something to do with Brady's record-breaking season?

When a team brings in better offensive weapons, they tend to put up better stats. Kind of crazy how that works.
Really? That's the best you've got? In 2012, at age 36, Peyton put up the best season he'd had since he was 28. And then they added a 32 year old slot WR. That is not reason enough to expect an offensive explosion. It was nothing like The 2007 Patriots when Brady was in his prime and he went from having NO weapons at WR to having two great weapons in their prime. I'd say nice try... but it wasn't. When a blind squirrel finds a nut, he should just be happy rather than acting like he's become the oracle.
In 2011, we saw how good the Colts offense was without Peyton. They had virtually no run game his last few seasons, and everything was quick, short passes since the O-line couldn't hold a block long enough for anything else. A number of people thought that Peyton had a better offense around him in Denver in 2012 than he did in Indy for a number of years prior. And what do you know - he put up better numbers.

So Peyton having a much better year in 2013 had nothing to do with them adding Welker and the emergence of Julius? How about the change in offensive coordinator? Did that affect things? I'm not saying anyone predicted he'd have a record-breaking season, but c'mon.

Since better talent and different philosophies have absolutely no affect on how an offense produces, I guess it really was magic afterall. :rolleyes:

As far Washington goes, for me, the biggest question is how many carries will RG3 have? If his attempts drop to 2-3 a game instead of 5-6 a game, it could actually mean MORE carries for Morris, even if the total number of attempts for the team drops.

 
Yes, in hindsight the new OC had a big impact, but previously Peyton had been seen as a player-coach who needed/wanted no OC. So again, blind squirrels.

Julius was on the team the year before. He was not a new addition. So I repeat, a 32 year old Welker as a slot guy was the only addition.

And you keep ignoring the age thing. Decline at age 37 is probably 50x more likely than improvement, so it seems reasonable that the addition of a slot WR would at best offset the decline of age rather than provide the 17% jump in yardage and 55% jump in TDs.

At no point did I say that talent and philosophies had no affect on offense. What I said was that Decker was not undervalued based on reasonable expectations for the Denver offense and that he only over produced due to unforeseeable passing attempts and production by Manning.

 
Yes, in hindsight the new OC had a big impact, but previously Peyton had been seen as a player-coach who needed/wanted no OC. So again, blind squirrels.

Julius was on the team the year before. He was not a new addition. So I repeat, a 32 year old Welker as a slot guy was the only addition.

And you keep ignoring the age thing. Decline at age 37 is probably 50x more likely than improvement, so it seems reasonable that the addition of a slot WR would at best offset the decline of age rather than provide the 17% jump in yardage and 55% jump in TDs.

At no point did I say that talent and philosophies had no affect on offense. What I said was that Decker was not undervalued based on reasonable expectations for the Denver offense and that he only over produced due to unforeseeable passing attempts and production by Manning.
Julius missed the entire 2012 season...hence the reason I said his "emergence." Any way you slice it, he was still an "addition" to Peyton's weapons on the field.

People weren't expecting Decker to have a worse season because of a decline by Peyton; they expected Welker to cut into his targets.

Again, you say that Decker "over-produced." He had a good 2012. In 2013 he had slightly more targets (14) and only 2 more receptions, and 2 fewer TDs. The big jump was in his yardage. He basically put up the same points in 2013 as he did in 2012. His yardage did go up - but that was because his YPC went up drastically, not because he had more catches. More weapons on the field = the defense is spread out more = more yards. Seems fairly logical.

You don't add weapons on offense with idea of, "Boy, I sure hope we can score the same number of points this year as we did last year!"

I doubt anyone in Washington is hoping that DeSean helps them merely repeat the same YPC that they had in 2013. With better receivers, they can spread the field more, which means more yardage, which means more points, which means more opportunities. It's not merely taking last year's "pie" and slicing it up differently.

 
Rotoworld:

Pierre Garcon - WR - Redskins

The Washington Post expects Pierre Garcon to play "X" receiver in new coach Jay Gruden's offense, with DeSean Jackson at "Z."

"Z" was A.J. Green's position in Gruden's Bengals offense. It commanded a team-high 178 targets last season. The "X" position was manned by Marvin Jones, who finished with 80 targets. Garcon will play a lot more snaps than Jones did, but this is something to keep in mind with a new offense being installed in D.C. It's conceivable that Garcon will be less of a featured player under Gruden, essentially sharing the role with D-Jax. The Post anticipates third receiver Andre Roberts handling duties similar to Mohamed Sanu's (77 targets).

Related: DeSean Jackson, Andre Roberts

Source: Washington Post

Jul 17 - 11:45 AM
 
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AJ Green > Desean

Jones < Garcon

I really don't like when "analysts" read too much into how a new coach coached a completely different team. Any good coach (to make it to the NFL you have to be good) will devise a game plan to utilize his players in the best way possible. He's not going to have the same exact playbook and call the same exact plays as he did when he had AJ Green.

It's the same as when I hear people say that Helu's value is going to skyrocket and Morris' value is going to tank. Morris is not BJGE and Helu is not Gio.

After you ignore all that, I don't think there's any way Garcon is targeted as much as he was last year. He really was the only option in the passing game outside a few games when they realized what they had in Reed. With more options in the passing game and a healthier QB, the offense should be a lot more diverse this year.

 
I wouldn't pay much attention to anything the Washington Post reports on the team at this point. John Keim and Rich Tandler are the ones to pay attention to.

 

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