AJ Jenkins. (1 Viewer)

He probably won't do much but it will be interesting to see how much this guy has progressed. 49ers 1st-Round pick.

With Kaep under center I like this kid.

Obviously he is the future in SF, no value in redraft but in dynasty his value takes a small uptick.

I'm high on this kid's talent, definitely not expecting much this season though.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...e-49ers-jenkins-will-surprise-a-lot-of-people

Lockette: 49ers Jenkins will 'surprise a lot of people'

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

In Gregg Rosenthal's rundown of NFC minicamp storylines, our esteemed editor put A.J. Jenkins on full blast. He was right to do so.

The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver suffered a disastrous rookie campaign that saw him appear in just three games, all without registering a statistic. The team could have used help at wideout, but Jenkins appeared cowed by the big stage.

At least one teammate says that won't be a problem in year two.

"I think A.J. will definitely surprise a lot of people this year," fellow pass-catcher Ricardo Lockette told The Sacramento Bee. "Last year, he took it as a building year. This year from what I've seen so far, it's night and day. I expect big things out of him. He expects big things out of himself, and (quarterback Colin Kaepernick) expects big things out of him. I think Niner nation and the Niner empire will be proud of what A.J. Jenkins brings to the field this year."

An injury-riddled offseason limited Jenkins in the weightroom last summer, but he's coming off six weeks in Atlanta with Lockette and Kaepernick, where the trio focused on strength and speed training, according to the newspaper. The reports in May are positive, but the 49ers already have gone out of their way to brace for the possibility that Jenkins never materializes.

Anquan Boldin was signed in the offseason to start across from Michael Crabtree. Mario Manningham took a pay cut and is expected to make an impact. San Francisco's Super Bowl window is still wide open, and it's too risky to count on Jenkins. Amid a roster full of smart draft picks, anything he brings this season is a bonus.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.

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You would have to think he has as much upside as any of the wideouts picked on Saturday, no? He was unrosterwd in both my dynasty league in November. I scooped him up and don't plan on cutting him for a 4th rounder.

Interesting read concerning Jenkins being out of shape last year:

Back during the 2011 lockout, rookie Aldon Smith showed up at the players' only workouts and was himself out of shape:

"I wish his agent would have warned him about this being a different level of training,"Sopoaga said at the time. "I was kind of feeling bad for him when our first time last week he was running the hills and he was drooling, he was throwing up. I was thinking ‘Uh oh, come on now. Welcome to the pros.'"

And there was more: Smith was so sore that he didn't even show up the next day at SJSU.

"He said he needed a back massage because his back was tight," Sopoaga said. "It was funny."

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Faust said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...e-49ers-jenkins-will-surprise-a-lot-of-people

Lockette: 49ers Jenkins will 'surprise a lot of people'

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

In Gregg Rosenthal's rundown of NFC minicamp storylines, our esteemed editor put A.J. Jenkins on full blast. He was right to do so.

The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver suffered a disastrous rookie campaign that saw him appear in just three games, all without registering a statistic. The team could have used help at wideout, but Jenkins appeared cowed by the big stage.

At least one teammate says that won't be a problem in year two.

"I think A.J. will definitely surprise a lot of people this year," fellow pass-catcher Ricardo Lockette told The Sacramento Bee. "Last year, he took it as a building year. This year from what I've seen so far, it's night and day. I expect big things out of him. He expects big things out of himself, and (quarterback Colin Kaepernick) expects big things out of him. I think Niner nation and the Niner empire will be proud of what A.J. Jenkins brings to the field this year."

An injury-riddled offseason limited Jenkins in the weightroom last summer, but he's coming off six weeks in Atlanta with Lockette and Kaepernick, where the trio focused on strength and speed training, according to the newspaper. The reports in May are positive, but the 49ers already have gone out of their way to brace for the possibility that Jenkins never materializes.

Anquan Boldin was signed in the offseason to start across from Michael Crabtree. Mario Manningham took a pay cut and is expected to make an impact. San Francisco's Super Bowl window is still wide open, and it's too risky to count on Jenkins. Amid a roster full of smart draft picks, anything he brings this season is a bonus.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.

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His choice to partner up and train with Kaepernick so soon in the offseason is a good sign. Added muscle & weight and time conditioning, as well as talking game and catching passes from Kaepernick point to hope for much improved 2nd year that could justify 1st Rd reach in 2012 draft.

Why did he fail to get on the field last year? Was it mental or physical? Or depth?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/06/a-j-jenkins-promises-to-return-as-a-totally-different-player/

A.J. Jenkins promises to return as a totally different player

Posted by Josh Alper on February 6, 2013, 11:48 AM EDT

AP

The 49ers made it all the way to the Super Bowl this season despite getting next to nothing from first-round pick A.J. Jenkins.

Jenkins played just three games during the regular season and caught no passes even though the 49ers lost wide receivers Mario Manningham and Kyle Williams to season-ending injuries. He was active for two of the teams three games in the postseason, but didnt pick up his first catch as a pro during the playoffs either. He wound up having just one pass thrown in his direction all year.

The lack of production obviously didnt hinder the 49ers all that much, but it is something Jenkins would like to change next season. He plans to hit the weights in order to become stronger and will work out with quarterback Colin Kaepernick in hopes of as part of his quest to come back for the 2013 season as a totally different player.

Obviously, I want to contribute a lot more than I have been, said Jenkins, via Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. So Im going to make that happen and come back bigger, faster, stronger.

Manningham and Williams are expected back, but Randy Moss and Ted Ginn could both be finished in San Francisco. That would open up a door for Jenkins to move up the depth chart if his offseason brings the improvement that Jenkins is expecting to see.

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26 Responses to A.J. Jenkins promises to return as a totally different player

ronaldmexico says:

Feb 6, 2013 11:54 AM

A.J. may have seen more playing time if he started the bigger, faster, stronger training program during the season.

107 5

xplicitpits says:

Feb 6, 2013 11:57 AM

Overweight, but skinny as a rail thin, with absolutely no work ethic! Perfect for the Bay Area Queens! Roster has 15, 1st round picks & they continually cant get it done! Window is closed. EVERYTHING WILL GO THROUGH SEATTLE FROM NOW ON!

49 329

goldrush36 says:

Feb 6, 2013 11:58 AM

I certainly hope so because as of yet he makes. Rashaun Woods look like Jerry Rice.

77 5

xplicitpits says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:03 PM

AJ Jenkins Obviously, I want to contribute a lot more than I have been, said Jenkins, via Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. So Im going to make that happen and come back bigger, faster, stronger. Hold on, one sec Mr. Barrows. Can I get 3 Whoppers, Onion Rings, Fry Sauce, & a X-large chocolate shake? Yes you may! Does that complete your order Mr. Jenkins? Yeah! Ok, you were saying Mr. Barrows?

Thats how it really went for the Bay Area Queens 2012 #1 Pick!

26 153

duncanthecat says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:07 PM

Niners better hope so Moss is nothing more than a possession receiver who can not get seperation as evidenced by the SB.

35 8

trollhammer20 says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:13 PM

If he makes even one catch next year, hes a totally different player

90 2

tjacks7 says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:17 PM

When I read the headline my initial thought was who is AJ Jenkins? Totally forgot about him.

53 5

sixjak says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:29 PM

Hi Seattle troll. What other clever gems you got? You learn at some point that making bold predictions for others is a foolish practice. Any star player can have a season ending injury at any point between now and next January. SEAs schedule gets tougher this year so good luck with all that and staying healthy and keeping that drugged up ##### in the secondarys ego in check and everything.

97 12

cowpiesnotcowboys says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:33 PM

You cant spell epic draft bust without A. J..

24 51

blacknole08 says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:39 PM

49ers definitely reached for Jenkins when most projected him to go in the 3rd-4th rounds.

Seriously though, who turns down the oppurtunity to be mentored by Jerry Rice (including running the famous hill Rice did during his career)?

68 3

mi6agent says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:44 PM

Trent Baalke has experienced worst hair loss after this pick. With his Niners team got depleted of the WRs due to injuries, the number#1 draft pick couldnt beat out a practice squat player (Chad Hall). The ghost of Rashaun Woods is coming back to haunt the 49ers.

29 7

thestatsishere says:

Feb 6, 2013 12:46 PM

Different player? You mean he actually played?

I dont the specifics on him. He could be a slow learner and have an amazing season next year, but for a first-round pick to get basically get zero playing time is never encouraging.

25 1

illinininer says:

Feb 6, 2013 1:02 PM

Kaep is bringing his recievers with him to Atlanta to start working out next week. I think the lights were too bright for Jenkins and an offseason to learn and train with his quarterback and fellow recievers will do him a lot of good. Be negative all you want, its not going to make your team any better. Get a life.

29 6

JackAcid says:

Feb 6, 2013 1:03 PM

Niners will give him one year to make a difference. Otherwise, could be cut at the end of next year.

They will look to add at WR regardless of his offseason.

25 0

Beezo-Doo-doo-Zippity-Bop-bop-bop says:

Feb 6, 2013 1:03 PM

I thought it was a tribute to the niners depth that none of their rookies could get on the field. Its looking now like they just didnt draft very well. And uh, Mr. everything will go through Seattle, the team with the best record in the division is getting better all the time.

18 10

dirtyjersey9er says:

Feb 6, 2013 1:09 PM

Everything will go through Seattle. As in rushes by Gore, James, and Kaepernick going right through the Seattle Defense.

48 7

sourdoughsam says:

Feb 6, 2013 1:17 PM

The talent is there with this kid, but he really does need to bulk up. I never expected him to contribute much this year because he looked like he was a couple off-seasons away from being big/strong enough to play in the 49ers offense, but I didnt expect him to go without a single reception.

Hes received a lot of criticism and there are some red flags here and there, but I think the culture in the locker room is strong enough to rub off on him.

This guy will be nothing, if he couldnt get on the field with the chumps behind Crabtree last year, how can he ever?

1st rounders have to make an impact, not be on the bench for an entire year, unless you are a QB.

Plenty of guys just don't understand what it takes to be a professional their rookie season. It was just a few years ago we did not have such high expectations for rookies. I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few. He apparently is doing what it takes this time around and I commend him for that. I will wait and see if he makes strides this season before writing him off. Crabtree/Manningham/Boldin could all be gone soon so I like the idea of potentially getting a Kaep target for cheap.

I agree. He was selected in the first round of the draft which speaks only to his potential. He wasn't ready. He might be ready soon. He may never pan out. I think he's got as much potential at least as many of the players taken in this year's draft such as Wheaton, Harper, and Dobson. I'd slot him right in with all the third rounders and fourth rounders this year which is a grab bag. I think you can select him outside the top 30 in most rookie/fa drafts if he isn't rostered. At that point, why not take a shot?

King of the Jungle said:

I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.

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They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.

Sigmund Bloom said:

King of the Jungle said:

I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.

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They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.

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I did not phrase that well. What I meant is he did not see much playing time. I agree he had opportunity to step in due to the injuries but never seized the moment. Shame on him for not getting it right last year, but I will also give him a second look because appears to have started to take this job seriously this year. Time will tell and I am not predicting he will be a worthwhile FF investment, but at his dirt cheap price I think he is worth a flyer.

Sigmund Bloom said:

King of the Jungle said:

I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.

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They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.

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What's Manningham's situation right now? Does he make it back into the rotation this year?

Christo said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

King of the Jungle said:

I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.

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They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.

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What's Manningham's situation right now? Does he make it back into the rotation this year?

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won't be ready for camp per Harbaugh at the Combine

Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.

Phenix said:

This guy will be nothing, if he couldnt get on the field with the chumps behind Crabtree last year, how can he ever? 1st rounders have to make an impact, not be on the bench for an entire year, unless you are a QB.

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Right, because the majority of 1st round wrs make an impact their rookie season.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.

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There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.

cstu said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.

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There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.

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I think if we're talking pure probabilities, it's going to be close.

Here are the 1st round receivers with less than 20 catches in their rookie year since 95:

Yatil Green

RJay Soward

Robert Meachem

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Michael Jenkins

Rashaun Woods

Marcus Nash

Ike Hilliard (injury)

Santana Moss (injury)

AJ Jenkins

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

First round WRs with 0 or 1 games started in their rookie year since 95:

Yatil Green

Freddie Mitchell

Matt Jones

Ashley Lelie

Craig Davis

Marcus Nash

Santana Moss (injured)

Rashaun Woods

Michael Jenkins

Again, not saying he's sure to fail, but we shouldn't ignore the strong indicator that his failure of a first year represents

In an informal poll on Twitter, 9 said they'd rather have a 4th rd rookie like Harper/Boyce/Patton, and 7 said Jenkins. 5 specifically said Boyce, 5 Patton, and 3 Harper - some said they had more than one over Jenkins.

So Jenkins rough value right now seems like a 3rd round rookie pick. Should be action both ways if you want to get in or out of a position on Jenkins.

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

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You're making some good points, Bloom. I could still be too attached to my pre-draft analysis of him but I agree it was an epically bad rookie season. I'm willing to concede that he's a longshot at the moment.

There are a couple guys picked within his draft range that give me some hope:

Isaac Bruce (#33) - 21/272/3

Amani Toomer (#34) - 1/12/0 (tore his ACL week 7)

Johnny Morton (#21) - 3/39/1

Jeff Graham (#46) - 2/21/0

Jimmy Smith (#36) - 13 catches in his first 5 years

Sigmund Bloom said:

In an informal poll on Twitter, 9 said they'd rather have a 4th rd rookie like Harper/Boyce/Patton, and 7 said Jenkins. 5 specifically said Boyce, 5 Patton, and 3 Harper - some said they had more than one over Jenkins.

So Jenkins rough value right now seems like a 3rd round rookie pick. Should be action both ways if you want to get in or out of a position on Jenkins.

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The lowest I've seen Boyce and Patton go is 3.03 and as high as 2.01. Harper is usually a mid 3rd.

Myself? I'd have a hard time taking Jenkins over Boyce but I'd do it.

Love the Bloom and CSTU banter.

-I think it might be a good idea to also relay some of the things Harbaugh said last year. It seemed like when LaMichael James finally got on the field he flashed some skills. He was buried behind Gore, Hunter, Jacobs, then he finally hits the field and I think we will be seeing a lot more of him despite the Lattimore pick. When Harbaugh was asked why he had not used LMJ previously he replied, "The players ahead of him were better and there were not any injuries yet" CK didn't take the field his rookie year and finally Alex Smith went down and he seized the moment.

I feel like Harbaugh knows when it is the right time. I like AJ Jenkins but he is clearly behind Crabtree right now and Anquan Boldin plus Mario Manningham are likely to make bigger impacts even in 2013. Boldin might be the new Derrick mason where teams wanting to make deep playoff runs want him around. I'm not sure how long Boldin can play in SF but I would expect another 1-2 years for sure. I think Jenkins will see more action but the Niners are trying to win a Super Bowl right now with the team they got and waiting for WRs to develop is gonna be tough...just ask New England when they were piling up Lombardi trophies.

I agree with Bloom that a 3rd round rookie pick is probably the best you can get right now but that value is going to move higher. If CK explodes as everyone seems to believe in Harbaugh's offense, should be plenty of balls to go around.

I have the feeling that the battle for playing time and roster spots might come down to special teams skills. http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/whos-going-to-return-punts-next-year-for-the-49ers/

Sigmund Bloom said:

cstu said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.

Click to expand...

There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.

Click to expand...

I think if we're talking pure probabilities, it's going to be close.

Here are the 1st round receivers with less than 20 catches in their rookie year since 95:

Yatil Green

RJay Soward

Robert Meachem

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Michael Jenkins

Rashaun Woods

Marcus Nash

Ike Hilliard (injury)

Santana Moss (injury)

AJ Jenkins

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Meachem was drafted in 07 and didn't get on the field until 08. That effort of 12 catches was in his 2nd year.

Yatil Green was drafted in 1997 and did not see the field until 1999 because of 2 ACL tears in consecutive preseasons

R Jay Soward only played one season

The only guy that parallels with Jenkins is Meachem.

Talent isn't a problem. I'm just not sure where he is mentally. The door was open for him to make a splash with all the injuries last season.

I think I'd feel differently if he was on almost any other roster in the league. With Harbaugh and the 49ers I'm not as concerned about his complete lack of production.

ShaHBucks said:

Talent isn't a problem. I'm just not sure where he is mentally. The door was open for him to make a splash with all the injuries last season.

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Yeah, for he to not see the field with all the injuries kinda is a bit of a red flag. I am not expecting much, so anything that is somewhat productive out of him is a plus.

Ministry of Pain said:

I feel like Harbaugh knows when it is the right time. I like AJ Jenkins but he is clearly behind Crabtree right now and Anquan Boldin plus Mario Manningham are likely to make bigger impacts even in 2013. Boldin might be the new Derrick mason where teams wanting to make deep playoff runs want him around. I'm not sure how long Boldin can play in SF but I would expect another 1-2 years for sure. I think Jenkins will see more action but the Niners are trying to win a Super Bowl right now with the team they got and waiting for WRs to develop is gonna be tough...just ask New England when they were piling up Lombardi trophies.

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I'm not sure Boldin is more than a 1 year rental, and I think Crabtree probably walks when his deal is up in two years. I think this is going to put a lot more pressure on the team to develop younger, cheaper WR this season, particularly since I think the team will use more 3 WR sets to accommodate Kaepernick's explosiveness as a passer. The upshot is I think Jenkins gets a much longer look this year - if he doesn't show us anything fairly early this year, there's probably nothing to see.

thecatch said:

if he doesn't show us anything fairly early this year, there's probably nothing to see.

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Yup, this year's training camp will either see Jenkins regain value in dynasty leagues or drop close to zero. Hence the need to get a gauge of his value wrt rookie draft picks so you can offload if you don't believe, or get in if you do.

The deck is stacked against Jenkins making much of a contribution this year with the trade for Boldin and the drafting of a few more offensive weapons IMHO.

If Mario Manningham can make an effective return to the active roster at some point in time during the season, that will only further bury his chances.

Hopefully Jenkins has received the message loud and clear that the NFL also stands for "not for long" if you don't work your hardest to stay in the League once you have arrived.

This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?

Faust said:

This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?

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Indeed, and it's probably a bigger indicator of NFL success than measureables or collegiate production.. problem is that we have nothing close to an objective measure of this, and as you allude to, it can change for a player during his career when they have a "career near-death experience"

The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.

I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.

Sigmund Bloom said:

Faust said:

This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?

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Indeed, and it's probably a bigger indicator of NFL success than measureables or collegiate production.. problem is that we have nothing close to an objective measure of this, and as you allude to, it can change for a player during his career when they have a "career near-death experience"

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I find this to be the trickiest part of evaluating rookies, and you are right that there is no way to have an objective measure of this. I do find that you can sometimes find a few hints from articles about these players in comments that they make, as I do remember reading that Randall Cobb felt that he belonged right in the discussion for top WR with his fellow draft class members A.J. Green and Julio Jones, and that he would always work hard to show the NFL that he was every bit as good as those two.

Holy Schneikes said:

The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.

I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.

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You make a couple of good points, imo. With rookie fever in full swing, moving Jenkins for a 3rd, for example, might be hard... rookie picks often come at a considerable premium around this time of year (even 3rd rd picks).

Jenkins owners should probably be looking to hold tight at this point, as tough as that is. I don't see there being a ton of interest in him, so you just have to cross your fingers and hope he shows even a glimpse of life this season. Of course, if he doesn't, his dynasty value drops to zero, imo.

mlball77 said:

Holy Schneikes said:

The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.

I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.

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You make a couple of good points, imo. With rookie fever in full swing, moving Jenkins for a 3rd, for example, might be hard... rookie picks often come at a considerable premium around this time of year (even 3rd rd picks).

Jenkins owners should probably be looking to hold tight at this point, as tough as that is. I don't see there being a ton of interest in him, so you just have to cross your fingers and hope he shows even a glimpse of life this season. Of course, if he doesn't, his dynasty value drops to zero, imo.

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right - if you are ready to get out of your position on Jenkins, perhaps start with a post/email to your league "jenkins for any third round pick, or a bump from third to second (which is think is significant this year and easily worth the same if not more than a third). even if you get no takers, you might get a lower offer so you at least know who is willing to give up SOMETHING for jenkins. alternatively, you can offer a 4th to his owner if you want to try to get him on the cheap.

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

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I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

So based on historical comps, I think there is less than a 12% chance I would regret my decision to hold Jenkins over a given 4th round WR.

Other people might take a couple extra WRs in the 2nd list, but you pretty much need to be totally convinced Jenkins is a bust if you are willing to give him up for this price.

Holy Schneikes said:

The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.

I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.

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Johnnie Morton is a good comp - 6-0, 190, 4.4 speed.

Faust said:

The deck is stacked against Jenkins making much of a contribution this year with the trade for Boldin and the drafting of a few more offensive weapons IMHO.If Mario Manningham can make an effective return to the active roster at some point in time during the season, that will only further bury his chances.Hopefully Jenkins has received the message loud and clear that the NFL also stands for "not for long" if you don't work your hardest to stay in the League once you have arrived.This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?

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The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.

cdubz said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

Click to expand...

I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

Spoiler

Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin

Click to expand...

So based on historical comps, I think there is less than a 12% chance I would regret my decision to hold Jenkins over a given 4th round WR.

Other people might take a couple extra WRs in the 2nd list, but you pretty much need to be totally convinced Jenkins is a bust if you are willing to give him up for this price.

Bloom's point is that we can evaluate players for our purposes better than taking the raw bust rate of players by round. I believe it's true since we are looking for things a little differently than NFL teams. There are draft picks every year that I feel comfortable about writing off immediately after the draft - Marquise Goodwin is one of these for me. Despite being a 3rd round pick I believe he was drafted as much for his return ability as for his receiving and am extremely doubtful that he'll make much of fantasy impact offensively.

Then we get a better view of players after their first training camp and moreso after their rookie season. I think the main difference between Bloom's view and mine is that I feel we're not as good as we think we are at predicting winners and losers even after their rookie year. There are so many variables outside of talent that makes it makes prediction difficult - not to mention we are dealing with real human beings who are notoriously unpredictable.

Sabertooth said:

Faust said:

The deck is stacked against Jenkins making much of a contribution this year with the trade for Boldin and the drafting of a few more offensive weapons IMHO.If Mario Manningham can make an effective return to the active roster at some point in time during the season, that will only further bury his chances.Hopefully Jenkins has received the message loud and clear that the NFL also stands for "not for long" if you don't work your hardest to stay in the League once you have arrived.This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?

Click to expand...

The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.

Click to expand...

If he's not the #3 this year and at least cuts into some of Boldin's time then you're right. I wouldn't go as far as to say he'll never develop if he doesn't show much this year but he'll become another one of those long shots hanging around the end of my roster. I'm looking for a minimum of 30 catches with a 13 YPR as my bar for him this year.

cstu said:

cdubz said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

Click to expand...

I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

Spoiler

Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Bloom's point is that we can evaluate players for our purposes better than taking the raw bust rate of players by round. I believe it's true since we are looking for things a little differently than NFL teams.

and if we do, then the bust rate of 1st rd WRs who stayed healthy in rook year and contributed so little is worse than 12%...

cstu said:

cdubz said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

Click to expand...

I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason

Marcus Robinson

Brandon Lloyd

Jerricho Cotchery

Brandon Marshall

Brian Hartline

Mike Williams

Cecil Shorts

Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:

Spoiler

Albert ConnellAnthony Lucas

Arman Shields

Austin Collie

Avion Black

Az-Zahir Hakim

Brandon Stokley

Carlos Francis

Cedric James

Charlie Jones

Chase Lyman

Chris Davis

Cory Rodgers

Craig Yeast

Craphonso Thorpe

Dameane Douglas

Danny Farmer

Demetrius Williams

Domenik Hixon

Donald Hayes

Edmond Gates

Eric Bjornson

Ernest Wilford

Fred Gibson

Gari Scott

Greg Salas

Jack Jackson

Jacoby Ford

Jahine Arnold

Jason Avant

Jerome Mathis

Julian Pittman

Justin Armour

Justin McCareins

Keenan Burton

Keith Poole

Kris Durham

Larry Parker

Lavelle Hawkins

Louis Murphy

Macey Brooks

Marcus Easley

Marcus Smith

Marty Gilyard

Mike Thomas

Milton Wynn

Na Brown

Reggie Barlow

Ron Johnson

Roydell Williams

Ryne Robinson

Sam Aiken

Samie Parker

Shaun McDonald

Skyler Green

Tandon Doss

Tim Dwight

Trevor Gaylor

Tyrone Davis

William Franklin

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Bloom's point is that we can evaluate players for our purposes better than taking the raw bust rate of players by round. I believe it's true since we are looking for things a little differently than NFL teams. There are draft picks every year that I feel comfortable about writing off immediately after the draft - Marquise Goodwin is one of these for me. Despite being a 3rd round pick I believe he was drafted as much for his return ability as for his receiving and am extremely doubtful that he'll make much of fantasy impact offensively.

Then we get a better view of players after their first training camp and moreso after their rookie season. I think the main difference between Bloom's view and mine is that I feel we're not as good as we think we are at predicting winners and losers even after their rookie year. There are so many variables outside of talent that makes it makes prediction difficult - not to mention we are dealing with real human beings who are notoriously unpredictable.

I think the starting point needs to be the raw bust rate as I agree with your assertion that we are not as good at predicting winners and losers as we think.

Even if you were able to predict 4th round WR success at a 50% clip above the raw rate of 12%, you are still looking at a less than 1 in 5 chance at hitting on a 4th rd WR.

@Bloom - I am about to dredge up some of your old rankings and I know it is easy to cherry pick the misses. I am only doing this to show that even the best in the business have misses. To jut mention one home run, major props on the Jimmy Graham analysis in this and in the follow-up.

With Boyce and Patton we are talking WR 8/9 territory in this year's rookie draft. Let's take a look at Bloom's rankings from 3 years ago.

Here are the top WRs from Bloom's Top 100 from 2010: http://footballguys.com/10bloom_100.php

Dez Bryant

Arrelious Benn

Demaryius Thomas

Dexter McCluster

Golden Tate

Emmanuel Sanders

Taylor Price

Andre Roberts

Jordan Shipley

Mike Williams

WR8 and WR10 would be a coup in Andre Roberts and Mike Williams, but presumably we would want to trade those for WR7 and WR9 if we had the chance, Taylor Price and Jordan Shipley.

I can see if you think Jenkins will never be anything, cutting bait, and gambling on a 4th rd WR; but given the relative hit ratios, you need to be pretty certain Jenkins never gets a starting gig IMHO.

Sigmund Bloom said:

cstu said:

cdubz said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

Click to expand...

I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Sigmund Bloom said:

>

cdubz said:

Sigmund Bloom said:

WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...

I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.

Click to expand...

I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:

Derrick Mason 14-186

Marcus Robinson 4-44

Brandon Lloyd 14-212

Jerricho Cotchery 6-60

Brandon Marshall 20-309

Brian Hartline 31-506

Mike Williams 65-964

Cecil Shorts 2-30

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

Click to expand...

and if we do, then the bust rate of 1st rd WRs who stayed healthy in rook year and contributed so little is worse than 12%...

Click to expand...

So is the first year evaluation only for 1st rd WRs? The majority of those 8, selected when we have their whole careers to evaluate didn't do much in their first year. I have added first year catches and yards next to their names above.

You can make the argument that 1st round status buys you opportunity, but I don't think Harbaugh and Baalke go strictly by that decision criteria. If someone thought Jenkins was no good prior to his 1st year then obviously you should sell now.

IMHO, I would hold on to Jenkins over Boyce/Patton, but I can understand the logic of cutting bait and taking another swing for the fences.

[SIZE=11.818181991577148px]The point of only looking at first-year contributions by 1st rd picks is that teams generally expect to something out of first rounders in year 1, if not winning a starting spot. The fact that the list of first-round WRs since 95 who didn't start more than a game in year one is very short should reinforce that.[/SIZE]