By Marc Sessler
Around the League Writer
In Gregg Rosenthal's rundown of NFC minicamp storylines, our esteemed editor put A.J. Jenkins on full blast. He was right to do so.
The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver suffered a disastrous rookie campaign that saw him appear in just three games, all without registering a statistic. The team could have used help at wideout, but Jenkins appeared cowed by the big stage.
At least one teammate says that won't be a problem in year two.
"I think A.J. will definitely surprise a lot of people this year," fellow pass-catcher Ricardo Lockette told The Sacramento Bee. "Last year, he took it as a building year. This year from what I've seen so far, it's night and day. I expect big things out of him. He expects big things out of himself, and (quarterback Colin Kaepernick) expects big things out of him. I think Niner nation and the Niner empire will be proud of what A.J. Jenkins brings to the field this year."
An injury-riddled offseason limited Jenkins in the weightroom last summer, but he's coming off six weeks in Atlanta with Lockette and Kaepernick, where the trio focused on strength and speed training, according to the newspaper. The reports in May are positive, but the 49ers already have gone out of their way to brace for the possibility that Jenkins never materializes.
Anquan Boldin was signed in the offseason to start across from Michael Crabtree. Mario Manningham took a pay cut and is expected to make an impact. San Francisco's Super Bowl window is still wide open, and it's too risky to count on Jenkins. Amid a roster full of smart draft picks, anything he brings this season is a bonus.
Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.
Back during the 2011 lockout, rookie Aldon Smith showed up at the players' only workouts and was himself out of shape:
"I wish his agent would have warned him about this being a different level of training,"Sopoaga said at the time. "I was kind of feeling bad for him when our first time last week he was running the hills and he was drooling, he was throwing up. I was thinking ‘Uh oh, come on now. Welcome to the pros.'"
And there was more: Smith was so sore that he didn't even show up the next day at SJSU.
"He said he needed a back massage because his back was tight," Sopoaga said. "It was funny."
His choice to partner up and train with Kaepernick so soon in the offseason is a good sign. Added muscle & weight and time conditioning, as well as talking game and catching passes from Kaepernick point to hope for much improved 2nd year that could justify 1st Rd reach in 2012 draft.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap10...e-49ers-jenkins-will-surprise-a-lot-of-people
Lockette: 49ers Jenkins will 'surprise a lot of people'
By Marc Sessler
Around the League Writer
In Gregg Rosenthal's rundown of NFC minicamp storylines, our esteemed editor put A.J. Jenkins on full blast. He was right to do so.
The San Francisco 49ers wide receiver suffered a disastrous rookie campaign that saw him appear in just three games, all without registering a statistic. The team could have used help at wideout, but Jenkins appeared cowed by the big stage.
At least one teammate says that won't be a problem in year two.
"I think A.J. will definitely surprise a lot of people this year," fellow pass-catcher Ricardo Lockette told The Sacramento Bee. "Last year, he took it as a building year. This year from what I've seen so far, it's night and day. I expect big things out of him. He expects big things out of himself, and (quarterback Colin Kaepernick) expects big things out of him. I think Niner nation and the Niner empire will be proud of what A.J. Jenkins brings to the field this year."
An injury-riddled offseason limited Jenkins in the weightroom last summer, but he's coming off six weeks in Atlanta with Lockette and Kaepernick, where the trio focused on strength and speed training, according to the newspaper. The reports in May are positive, but the 49ers already have gone out of their way to brace for the possibility that Jenkins never materializes.
Anquan Boldin was signed in the offseason to start across from Michael Crabtree. Mario Manningham took a pay cut and is expected to make an impact. San Francisco's Super Bowl window is still wide open, and it's too risky to count on Jenkins. Amid a roster full of smart draft picks, anything he brings this season is a bonus.
Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.
They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.
I did not phrase that well. What I meant is he did not see much playing time. I agree he had opportunity to step in due to the injuries but never seized the moment. Shame on him for not getting it right last year, but I will also give him a second look because appears to have started to take this job seriously this year. Time will tell and I am not predicting he will be a worthwhile FF investment, but at his dirt cheap price I think he is worth a flyer.They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.
What's Manningham's situation right now? Does he make it back into the rotation this year?They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.
won't be ready for camp per Harbaugh at the CombineWhat's Manningham's situation right now? Does he make it back into the rotation this year?They were playing guys off of the street like Chad Hall over him by the end of the season. He had every opportunity to get playing time once Manningham went down. The source of Jenkins disappointing rookie year was anything but lack of opportunity.I understand he did nothing last year but his opportunities were few.
Right, because the majority of 1st round wrs make an impact their rookie season.This guy will be nothing, if he couldnt get on the field with the chumps behind Crabtree last year, how can he ever? 1st rounders have to make an impact, not be on the bench for an entire year, unless you are a QB.
There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.
I think if we're talking pure probabilities, it's going to be close.There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.
You're making some good points, Bloom. I could still be too attached to my pre-draft analysis of him but I agree it was an epically bad rookie season. I'm willing to concede that he's a longshot at the moment.WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
The lowest I've seen Boyce and Patton go is 3.03 and as high as 2.01. Harper is usually a mid 3rd.In an informal poll on Twitter, 9 said they'd rather have a 4th rd rookie like Harper/Boyce/Patton, and 7 said Jenkins. 5 specifically said Boyce, 5 Patton, and 3 Harper - some said they had more than one over Jenkins.
So Jenkins rough value right now seems like a 3rd round rookie pick. Should be action both ways if you want to get in or out of a position on Jenkins.
Meachem was drafted in 07 and didn't get on the field until 08. That effort of 12 catches was in his 2nd year.I think if we're talking pure probabilities, it's going to be close.There's a good chance that Jenkins never develops into anything but those odds are higher than who you'd get with a random 3rd round rookie pick.Jenkins is the only first-round WR in the last 25 years to have zero catches in his rookie year. It's not impossible that he's a late bloomer, at this point, the smart stance is "I'll believe it when I see it (or hear of it from a good source)". I would deal him for a 3rd rd rookie pick right now.
Here are the 1st round receivers with less than 20 catches in their rookie year since 95:
Yatil Green
RJay Soward
Robert Meachem
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Michael Jenkins
Rashaun Woods
Marcus Nash
Ike Hilliard (injury)
Santana Moss (injury)
AJ Jenkins
Yeah, for he to not see the field with all the injuries kinda is a bit of a red flag. I am not expecting much, so anything that is somewhat productive out of him is a plus.Talent isn't a problem. I'm just not sure where he is mentally. The door was open for him to make a splash with all the injuries last season.
I'm not sure Boldin is more than a 1 year rental, and I think Crabtree probably walks when his deal is up in two years. I think this is going to put a lot more pressure on the team to develop younger, cheaper WR this season, particularly since I think the team will use more 3 WR sets to accommodate Kaepernick's explosiveness as a passer. The upshot is I think Jenkins gets a much longer look this year - if he doesn't show us anything fairly early this year, there's probably nothing to see.I feel like Harbaugh knows when it is the right time. I like AJ Jenkins but he is clearly behind Crabtree right now and Anquan Boldin plus Mario Manningham are likely to make bigger impacts even in 2013. Boldin might be the new Derrick mason where teams wanting to make deep playoff runs want him around. I'm not sure how long Boldin can play in SF but I would expect another 1-2 years for sure. I think Jenkins will see more action but the Niners are trying to win a Super Bowl right now with the team they got and waiting for WRs to develop is gonna be tough...just ask New England when they were piling up Lombardi trophies.
Yup, this year's training camp will either see Jenkins regain value in dynasty leagues or drop close to zero. Hence the need to get a gauge of his value wrt rookie draft picks so you can offload if you don't believe, or get in if you do.if he doesn't show us anything fairly early this year, there's probably nothing to see.
Indeed, and it's probably a bigger indicator of NFL success than measureables or collegiate production.. problem is that we have nothing close to an objective measure of this, and as you allude to, it can change for a player during his career when they have a "career near-death experience"This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?
I find this to be the trickiest part of evaluating rookies, and you are right that there is no way to have an objective measure of this. I do find that you can sometimes find a few hints from articles about these players in comments that they make, as I do remember reading that Randall Cobb felt that he belonged right in the discussion for top WR with his fellow draft class members A.J. Green and Julio Jones, and that he would always work hard to show the NFL that he was every bit as good as those two.Sigmund Bloom said:Indeed, and it's probably a bigger indicator of NFL success than measureables or collegiate production.. problem is that we have nothing close to an objective measure of this, and as you allude to, it can change for a player during his career when they have a "career near-death experience"Faust said:This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?
You make a couple of good points, imo. With rookie fever in full swing, moving Jenkins for a 3rd, for example, might be hard... rookie picks often come at a considerable premium around this time of year (even 3rd rd picks).Holy Schneikes said:The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.
I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.
right - if you are ready to get out of your position on Jenkins, perhaps start with a post/email to your league "jenkins for any third round pick, or a bump from third to second (which is think is significant this year and easily worth the same if not more than a third). even if you get no takers, you might get a lower offer so you at least know who is willing to give up SOMETHING for jenkins. alternatively, you can offer a 4th to his owner if you want to try to get him on the cheap.You make a couple of good points, imo. With rookie fever in full swing, moving Jenkins for a 3rd, for example, might be hard... rookie picks often come at a considerable premium around this time of year (even 3rd rd picks).Holy Schneikes said:The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.
I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.
Jenkins owners should probably be looking to hold tight at this point, as tough as that is. I don't see there being a ton of interest in him, so you just have to cross your fingers and hope he shows even a glimpse of life this season. Of course, if he doesn't, his dynasty value drops to zero, imo.
I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
Johnnie Morton is a good comp - 6-0, 190, 4.4 speed.Holy Schneikes said:The thing about trading him for a late round pick is that even that will become hard when the draft is ongoing. If you are really interested in doing this, you should try to make a deal before draft fever sets in and every third round pick becomes a future stud.
I am an owner is several leagues, and I have no idea what to do with him. Really hard to just dump a former first rounder in his 2nd year, but every indication/comp you see is bad.
The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.Faust said:The deck is stacked against Jenkins making much of a contribution this year with the trade for Boldin and the drafting of a few more offensive weapons IMHO.If Mario Manningham can make an effective return to the active roster at some point in time during the season, that will only further bury his chances.Hopefully Jenkins has received the message loud and clear that the NFL also stands for "not for long" if you don't work your hardest to stay in the League once you have arrived.This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?
So based on historical comps, I think there is less than a 12% chance I would regret my decision to hold Jenkins over a given 4th round WR.I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
Derrick Mason
Marcus Robinson
Brandon Lloyd
Jerricho Cotchery
Brandon Marshall
Brian Hartline
Mike Williams
Cecil Shorts
Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:
Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin
If he's not the #3 this year and at least cuts into some of Boldin's time then you're right. I wouldn't go as far as to say he'll never develop if he doesn't show much this year but he'll become another one of those long shots hanging around the end of my roster. I'm looking for a minimum of 30 catches with a 13 YPR as my bar for him this year.The thing is this though, if he can't surpass Boldin and Manningham, he probably isn't going to make it in the NFL. It's like when Cobb was drafted and everyone said he wouldn't have opportunities because he was buried. It didn't matter because talent rises. They made room for him. If Jenkins can't get force his way onto the field this year, I doubt he ever really does. He certainly won't have much fantasy value although he may eek out a "Jason Avant" type career.Faust said:The deck is stacked against Jenkins making much of a contribution this year with the trade for Boldin and the drafting of a few more offensive weapons IMHO.If Mario Manningham can make an effective return to the active roster at some point in time during the season, that will only further bury his chances.Hopefully Jenkins has received the message loud and clear that the NFL also stands for "not for long" if you don't work your hardest to stay in the League once you have arrived.This is the hardest element to gauge with rookies who enter the NFL, they often have enormous talent, but who has the work ethic, drive and desire to stay?
I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
Derrick Mason
Marcus Robinson
Brandon Lloyd
Jerricho Cotchery
Brandon Marshall
Brian Hartline
Mike Williams
Cecil Shorts
Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:
Albert ConnellAnthony LucasArman ShieldsAustin CollieAvion BlackAz-Zahir HakimBrandon StokleyCarlos FrancisCedric JamesCharlie JonesChase LymanChris DavisCory RodgersCraig YeastCraphonso ThorpeDameane DouglasDanny FarmerDemetrius WilliamsDomenik HixonDonald HayesEdmond GatesEric BjornsonErnest WilfordFred GibsonGari ScottGreg SalasJack JacksonJacoby FordJahine ArnoldJason AvantJerome MathisJulian PittmanJustin ArmourJustin McCareinsKeenan BurtonKeith PooleKris DurhamLarry ParkerLavelle HawkinsLouis MurphyMacey BrooksMarcus EasleyMarcus SmithMarty GilyardMike ThomasMilton WynnNa BrownReggie BarlowRon JohnsonRoydell WilliamsRyne RobinsonSam AikenSamie ParkerShaun McDonaldSkyler GreenTandon DossTim DwightTrevor GaylorTyrone DavisWilliam Franklin
I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
Derrick Mason
Marcus Robinson
Brandon Lloyd
Jerricho Cotchery
Brandon Marshall
Brian Hartline
Mike Williams
Cecil Shorts
Compare that to the following list of 60 other 4th round WRs in that time period:
Albert ConnellAnthony Lucas
Arman Shields
Austin Collie
Avion Black
Az-Zahir Hakim
Brandon Stokley
Carlos Francis
Cedric James
Charlie Jones
Chase Lyman
Chris Davis
Cory Rodgers
Craig Yeast
Craphonso Thorpe
Dameane Douglas
Danny Farmer
Demetrius Williams
Domenik Hixon
Donald Hayes
Edmond Gates
Eric Bjornson
Ernest Wilford
Fred Gibson
Gari Scott
Greg Salas
Jack Jackson
Jacoby Ford
Jahine Arnold
Jason Avant
Jerome Mathis
Julian Pittman
Justin Armour
Justin McCareins
Keenan Burton
Keith Poole
Kris Durham
Larry Parker
Lavelle Hawkins
Louis Murphy
Macey Brooks
Marcus Easley
Marcus Smith
Marty Gilyard
Mike Thomas
Milton Wynn
Na Brown
Reggie Barlow
Ron Johnson
Roydell Williams
Ryne Robinson
Sam Aiken
Samie Parker
Shaun McDonald
Skyler Green
Tandon Doss
Tim Dwight
Trevor Gaylor
Tyrone Davis
William Franklin
So is the first year evaluation only for 1st rd WRs? The majority of those 8, selected when we have their whole careers to evaluate didn't do much in their first year. I have added first year catches and yards next to their names above.and if we do, then the bust rate of 1st rd WRs who stayed healthy in rook year and contributed so little is worse than 12%...I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
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I like that you are bringing the historical comps into the discussion, but I think we need to think of all the 4th round misses as well. Looking at 4th round receivers from 1995-2011 I would take the careers/trajectories of the following 8 players over the risk/reward profile of Jenkins:Sigmund Bloom said:WRs taken in the fourth round since 95 gives you names like Brandon Marshall, Derrick Mason, Mike Williams, Cecil Shorts...
I would probably rather have a 4th round WR with a clean slate who I liked going into the draft than a 1st round pick WR who flopped in his rookie year.
Derrick Mason 14-186
Marcus Robinson 4-44
Brandon Lloyd 14-212
Jerricho Cotchery 6-60
Brandon Marshall 20-309
Brian Hartline 31-506
Mike Williams 65-964
Cecil Shorts 2-30