Jene Bramel
Footballguy
ETA: Updated and full combined (offensive and defensive prospects) draft board in Post 18 below.
I think we’ll eventually find that one or more of these linebacker prospects project to an immediate every-down role, and two to four of them will eventually crack the top 30 at their position. But for those looking to add an impact linebacker prospect for their 2011 lineups, this is currently the thinnest draft board I’ve seen in my 15 plus seasons of tracking fantasy defenders. The depth isn’t much better. At first glance, I’ve got just fewer than 30 draftable IDP prospects, and pending a review of the offensive prospects, I’ve got only six of them with grades in the third round or earlier.
The below ranking and tiers is still something of a work in progress and I’m hoping for lots of discussion and expect some movement as we all set our draft boards over the coming days and weeks. For now, I’m erring on the side of projecting players closer to their ceiling than floor and generally toward talent and upside within tiers. I’m also assuming a balanced scoring system, that DT and CB as separate positions, and 12-14 team league for the round grades.
Let me have it, especially if I've missed someone during the early cut-and-paste on my spreadsheet.
1 Nate Irving (early 2 – mid 2)
I’m not convinced that Irving is an every-down prospect, but there’s enough disagreement among scouts and evaluators (see Parcells first round grade) that I think he’s a favorite to take the MLB job from Joe Mays quickly and play every down based on John Elway’s comments yesterday.
2 Mason Foster (late 2 – early 3)
3 Martez Wilson (late 2 – early 3)
I think Foster is a surer every-down prospect than Irving, but can he show the range in run support and coverage necessary to play MLB in the Tampa-2? Are the Bucs really ready to let Barrett Ruud walk in FA? If the answer to the second question is yes, he’s the 1a prospect in rookie drafts. If not, he’s still a projectable every-down WLB deserving of consideration in the third round. I’m not sure what to think of Wilson’s scouting reports. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s more Keith Rivers than Keith Bulluck. He should be an every-down OLB for the aggressive New Orleans defense, though, and has a shot to be a perennial 82-85 solo guy with some big play upside. If you think he’s Bulluck, bump him up in your rankings.
4 Colin McCarthy (late 2 – late 3)
5 Jabaal Sheard (mid 3 – early 4)
6 Bruce Carter (late 3 – mid 4)
7 Jaiquawn Jarrett (late 3 – early 4)
I’ve had McCarthy in the tier above and below already today. His selection, and the lack of any apparent interest in re-signing Stephen Tulloch this winter, suggests that the team is planning to move on at MLB. One local observer suggested that Will Witherspoon could move inside, but he couldn’t hold up there over time in St. Louis and I’m not sure he fits the “want to get bigger at linebacker” comments. Gray is still playing his cards close to the vest, so McCarthy, Witherspoon, Rennie Curran and even Tulloch may still be under consideration as an every-down MLB. McCarthy is a risky bet in the second today, but taking him there this week might look like a steal in a month.
Sheard is a pre-draft favorite that I really wanted to land with a 4-3 team and the Browns have an immediate need for him. Free agent signings might push him into more of a rotational role, but he has a shot at 70 percent of the team’s snaps right away. I’ve gotten away from recommending rookie 4-3 ends this early recently given their tough transition against NFL offensive tackles, but I think Sheard’s combination of tenacity, leverage and smart pass rush is the right mix on which to take the risk. Jarrett is multiple tiers above his fantasy peers at the safety position and should start right away and has DB2 or better potential.
On further reflection, I’ve decided to stick my neck out for yet another 3-4 WILB prospect. This might be a weak spot for me, but I love that position in the 3-4 and I think Carter – if he returns to his pre-injury form – is as dynamic a prospect as Lawrence Timmons. Unfortunately, you may have to wait just as long to reap the potential benefits as there are suggestions that he’ll start camp on the PUP list and is clearly stuck behind Keith Brooking (and likely Sean Lee if Brooking is injured) in 2011. This is purely an upside play and one that’s probably best taken in the fourth round with all the interesting RB/WR prospects.
8 Patrick Peterson (mid 3 – late 4)
9 Casey Matthews (late 3 – late 4)
10 Von Miller (early 4 – late 4)
11 Robert Quinn (late 4)
12 Adrian Clayborn (late 4)
13 Akeem Ayers (mid 4 – mid 5)
Peterson is a strong selection in CB required leagues as early as the mid third round, but probably doesn’t make sense until sometime in the fourth given the ease of finding fantasy free agents at corner versus the upside WR/RB picks that are probably coming off the board in the third. He could fit anywhere in this tier.
I think Casey Matthews is a great fit as the Eagles WLB and I think he projects well enough in coverage to play in subpackages. But the Eagles have played more dime than nickel in recent years and seem to like to use a reserve backer as the second backer on some nickel snaps. That concern, plus a worry that the surrounding cast at LB and S might not support 80-85 solos from the WLB spot holds Matthews down a tier for me.
The Titans are clearly moving toward a hybrid scheme. Jerry Gray and Mike Munchak have said that they want to lean toward a bigger 4-3, but that they’ll consider 3-4 elements. Gray comes from the Gregg Williams philosophy, which wants to use a multiple front philosophy with pressure when the pieces are there. I think Akeem Ayers is a good piece for that scheme, but the tackle upside is questionable as is his consistency as a linebacker playing over the TE. He’ll have to be Adalius Thomas to crack the top 30 consistently. Von Miller is a similar player, but I like his pass rush upside and matchup LB3 potential much better.
I’ve got Quinn and Clayborn a half tier above Da’Quan Bowers and Cam Jordan based on scheme, injury and opportunity, but it’s close. I like Quinn’s spot, but he’s not as consistent in run support as I like in a balanced league. I think he’s more likely a 38-8 DL2 than a 45-10 stud. And given the usual transition time for 4-3 DE rookies, I’d look elsewhere until the fourth round. Quinn gets the nod over Clayborn on pass rush upside, but Clayborn has a higher floor. They’re nearly even on my draft board, take the one that fits your roster philosophy if put to a decision.
14 Greg Jones (late 4 – late 5)
15 Jonas Mouton (late 4 – late 5)
16 Da’Quan Bowers (late 4 – late 5)
17 Cameron Jordan (late 4 – late 5)
If Bowers shows he can play with leverage and turn the corner in the preseason, he’d clearly be a top ten player and be right with Sheard. But too many teams with pass rushing needs passed on him at least once and the Bucs clearly favored Clayborn. Both are worrisome for his immediate playing time and long term viability. For now, let someone else assume the risk (unless you’re convinced he’s a 40-10 guy by 2012) until the fifth round. I really, really like Jordan and the hybrid scheme in New Orleans isn’t a deal breaker. But he’s a rookie, he’ll be playing lots of 3-4 defensive end and potentially in rotation. He’ll have to hit his ceiling to have DL2 value by 2012.
Greg Jones is listed here on opportunity alone. The scouting reports I prefer have him as a top ILB candidate. Team after team after team with an immediate ILB need ignored him through multiple rounds. Those who have read my ramblings in the past know that I have something of a blind spot for an ILB prospect who isn’t super athletic and has questions in coverage when there’s opportunity to be had. Lance Mitchell, Albert Fincher, Phillip Dillard – the list goes on. But there’s also London Fletcher, Gerald Hayes, Ronald McKinnon, Greg Biekert and others who have worked out. Am I crazy for recommending Jones over a second round pick like Jonas Mouton? Probably. If the Chargers don’t re-sign Brandon Siler, Mouton moves into the top 10 and possibly higher if Donald Butler can’t play WILB or can’t hold Mouton off in the nickel.
18 Aldon Smith (late 5 – mid 7)
19 Quinton Carter (mid 6 - mid 7)
20 Kelvin Sheppard (mid 6 – FA)
21 Quan Sturdivant (early 7 - FA)
22 JJ Watt (early 7 – FA)
23 Shiloh Keo (7 – FA)
24 Nick Fairley (7 – FA)
25 Brandon Harris (7 – FA)
26 Ahmad Black (7 – FA)
27 Rahim Moore (7 – FA)
28 Ryan Kerrigan (7 – FA)
29 Brooks Reed (7 – FA)
FA to consider/watch
DE Marcell Dareus, Corey Liuget, Cameron Heyward
DT Stephen Paea, Drake Nevis, Christian Ballard, Marvin Austin
LB Justin Houston, Chris Carter, Dontay Moch
CB Prince Amukamara, Jimmy Smith, Ras-I Dowling, Aaron Williams, Chris Culliver
S Chris Conte, Jermale Hines, Christopher Prosinski, Robert Sands, Da’Norris Searcy
I think we’ll eventually find that one or more of these linebacker prospects project to an immediate every-down role, and two to four of them will eventually crack the top 30 at their position. But for those looking to add an impact linebacker prospect for their 2011 lineups, this is currently the thinnest draft board I’ve seen in my 15 plus seasons of tracking fantasy defenders. The depth isn’t much better. At first glance, I’ve got just fewer than 30 draftable IDP prospects, and pending a review of the offensive prospects, I’ve got only six of them with grades in the third round or earlier.
The below ranking and tiers is still something of a work in progress and I’m hoping for lots of discussion and expect some movement as we all set our draft boards over the coming days and weeks. For now, I’m erring on the side of projecting players closer to their ceiling than floor and generally toward talent and upside within tiers. I’m also assuming a balanced scoring system, that DT and CB as separate positions, and 12-14 team league for the round grades.
Let me have it, especially if I've missed someone during the early cut-and-paste on my spreadsheet.
1 Nate Irving (early 2 – mid 2)
I’m not convinced that Irving is an every-down prospect, but there’s enough disagreement among scouts and evaluators (see Parcells first round grade) that I think he’s a favorite to take the MLB job from Joe Mays quickly and play every down based on John Elway’s comments yesterday.
2 Mason Foster (late 2 – early 3)
3 Martez Wilson (late 2 – early 3)
I think Foster is a surer every-down prospect than Irving, but can he show the range in run support and coverage necessary to play MLB in the Tampa-2? Are the Bucs really ready to let Barrett Ruud walk in FA? If the answer to the second question is yes, he’s the 1a prospect in rookie drafts. If not, he’s still a projectable every-down WLB deserving of consideration in the third round. I’m not sure what to think of Wilson’s scouting reports. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s more Keith Rivers than Keith Bulluck. He should be an every-down OLB for the aggressive New Orleans defense, though, and has a shot to be a perennial 82-85 solo guy with some big play upside. If you think he’s Bulluck, bump him up in your rankings.
4 Colin McCarthy (late 2 – late 3)
5 Jabaal Sheard (mid 3 – early 4)
6 Bruce Carter (late 3 – mid 4)
7 Jaiquawn Jarrett (late 3 – early 4)
I’ve had McCarthy in the tier above and below already today. His selection, and the lack of any apparent interest in re-signing Stephen Tulloch this winter, suggests that the team is planning to move on at MLB. One local observer suggested that Will Witherspoon could move inside, but he couldn’t hold up there over time in St. Louis and I’m not sure he fits the “want to get bigger at linebacker” comments. Gray is still playing his cards close to the vest, so McCarthy, Witherspoon, Rennie Curran and even Tulloch may still be under consideration as an every-down MLB. McCarthy is a risky bet in the second today, but taking him there this week might look like a steal in a month.
Sheard is a pre-draft favorite that I really wanted to land with a 4-3 team and the Browns have an immediate need for him. Free agent signings might push him into more of a rotational role, but he has a shot at 70 percent of the team’s snaps right away. I’ve gotten away from recommending rookie 4-3 ends this early recently given their tough transition against NFL offensive tackles, but I think Sheard’s combination of tenacity, leverage and smart pass rush is the right mix on which to take the risk. Jarrett is multiple tiers above his fantasy peers at the safety position and should start right away and has DB2 or better potential.
On further reflection, I’ve decided to stick my neck out for yet another 3-4 WILB prospect. This might be a weak spot for me, but I love that position in the 3-4 and I think Carter – if he returns to his pre-injury form – is as dynamic a prospect as Lawrence Timmons. Unfortunately, you may have to wait just as long to reap the potential benefits as there are suggestions that he’ll start camp on the PUP list and is clearly stuck behind Keith Brooking (and likely Sean Lee if Brooking is injured) in 2011. This is purely an upside play and one that’s probably best taken in the fourth round with all the interesting RB/WR prospects.
8 Patrick Peterson (mid 3 – late 4)
9 Casey Matthews (late 3 – late 4)
10 Von Miller (early 4 – late 4)
11 Robert Quinn (late 4)
12 Adrian Clayborn (late 4)
13 Akeem Ayers (mid 4 – mid 5)
Peterson is a strong selection in CB required leagues as early as the mid third round, but probably doesn’t make sense until sometime in the fourth given the ease of finding fantasy free agents at corner versus the upside WR/RB picks that are probably coming off the board in the third. He could fit anywhere in this tier.
I think Casey Matthews is a great fit as the Eagles WLB and I think he projects well enough in coverage to play in subpackages. But the Eagles have played more dime than nickel in recent years and seem to like to use a reserve backer as the second backer on some nickel snaps. That concern, plus a worry that the surrounding cast at LB and S might not support 80-85 solos from the WLB spot holds Matthews down a tier for me.
The Titans are clearly moving toward a hybrid scheme. Jerry Gray and Mike Munchak have said that they want to lean toward a bigger 4-3, but that they’ll consider 3-4 elements. Gray comes from the Gregg Williams philosophy, which wants to use a multiple front philosophy with pressure when the pieces are there. I think Akeem Ayers is a good piece for that scheme, but the tackle upside is questionable as is his consistency as a linebacker playing over the TE. He’ll have to be Adalius Thomas to crack the top 30 consistently. Von Miller is a similar player, but I like his pass rush upside and matchup LB3 potential much better.
I’ve got Quinn and Clayborn a half tier above Da’Quan Bowers and Cam Jordan based on scheme, injury and opportunity, but it’s close. I like Quinn’s spot, but he’s not as consistent in run support as I like in a balanced league. I think he’s more likely a 38-8 DL2 than a 45-10 stud. And given the usual transition time for 4-3 DE rookies, I’d look elsewhere until the fourth round. Quinn gets the nod over Clayborn on pass rush upside, but Clayborn has a higher floor. They’re nearly even on my draft board, take the one that fits your roster philosophy if put to a decision.
14 Greg Jones (late 4 – late 5)
15 Jonas Mouton (late 4 – late 5)
16 Da’Quan Bowers (late 4 – late 5)
17 Cameron Jordan (late 4 – late 5)
If Bowers shows he can play with leverage and turn the corner in the preseason, he’d clearly be a top ten player and be right with Sheard. But too many teams with pass rushing needs passed on him at least once and the Bucs clearly favored Clayborn. Both are worrisome for his immediate playing time and long term viability. For now, let someone else assume the risk (unless you’re convinced he’s a 40-10 guy by 2012) until the fifth round. I really, really like Jordan and the hybrid scheme in New Orleans isn’t a deal breaker. But he’s a rookie, he’ll be playing lots of 3-4 defensive end and potentially in rotation. He’ll have to hit his ceiling to have DL2 value by 2012.
Greg Jones is listed here on opportunity alone. The scouting reports I prefer have him as a top ILB candidate. Team after team after team with an immediate ILB need ignored him through multiple rounds. Those who have read my ramblings in the past know that I have something of a blind spot for an ILB prospect who isn’t super athletic and has questions in coverage when there’s opportunity to be had. Lance Mitchell, Albert Fincher, Phillip Dillard – the list goes on. But there’s also London Fletcher, Gerald Hayes, Ronald McKinnon, Greg Biekert and others who have worked out. Am I crazy for recommending Jones over a second round pick like Jonas Mouton? Probably. If the Chargers don’t re-sign Brandon Siler, Mouton moves into the top 10 and possibly higher if Donald Butler can’t play WILB or can’t hold Mouton off in the nickel.
18 Aldon Smith (late 5 – mid 7)
19 Quinton Carter (mid 6 - mid 7)
20 Kelvin Sheppard (mid 6 – FA)
21 Quan Sturdivant (early 7 - FA)
22 JJ Watt (early 7 – FA)
23 Shiloh Keo (7 – FA)
24 Nick Fairley (7 – FA)
25 Brandon Harris (7 – FA)
26 Ahmad Black (7 – FA)
27 Rahim Moore (7 – FA)
28 Ryan Kerrigan (7 – FA)
29 Brooks Reed (7 – FA)
FA to consider/watch
DE Marcell Dareus, Corey Liuget, Cameron Heyward
DT Stephen Paea, Drake Nevis, Christian Ballard, Marvin Austin
LB Justin Houston, Chris Carter, Dontay Moch
CB Prince Amukamara, Jimmy Smith, Ras-I Dowling, Aaron Williams, Chris Culliver
S Chris Conte, Jermale Hines, Christopher Prosinski, Robert Sands, Da’Norris Searcy
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Tease.
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