2023 Rookie mock Draft (among analysts) - SuperFlex (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

We will be doing short writeups on each pick but the outfit I've been writing/editing for is doing a series of rookie mocks. This one is 5 rounds and we are in round 3 currently.

1.01 Bijan Robinson
1.02 CJ Stroud
1.03 Bryce Young
1.04 Jahmyr Gibbs
1.05 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1.06 Quentin Johnston
1.07 Anthony Richardson
1.08 Jordan Addison
1.09 Kayshon Boutte (mine)
1.10 Zach Evans
1.11 Zach Charbonnet
1.12 Michael Mayer
2.01 Will Levis
2.02 Sean Tucker
2.03 Tank Bigsby
2.04 Zay Flowers
2.05 Josh Downs
2.06 Roschon Johnson
2.07 Devon Achane***
2.08 Rashee Rice
2.09 Kendre Miller (mine)
2.10 Israel Abanikanda
2.11 Cedric Tillman
2.12 Rakim Jarrett
3.01 Marvin Mims
3.02 Dalton Kincaid
3.03 Jalin Hyatt
3.04 Darnell Washington
3.05 Deuce Vaughn
3.06 Tyjae Spears
3.07 Chase Brown
3.08 Parker Washington
3.09 Eric Gray (mine)
3.10 Xavier Hutchinson
3.11 OTC
3.12

*** everyone in the chat room seemed to agree there was a giant tier break after Achane. I have no idea I'm just along for the ride here in January. Nevertheless here is an early look. I'll post the rest once we're done and a link to the writeups when they're ready. We'll do more at each major milestone (FA, combine, predraft, etc)

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

I think Achane 2.7 & Miller 2.9 are the SOD at this early date. Spears, Chase Brown, and Gray deep into the 3rd speak to how good the RB depth is.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Good looking, mock draft. The first five picks are pretty chalky, but there are some surprising picks after that. That’s always fun to see.

Happy to see a quarterback at 1.07, but surprised it is Anthony Richardson, and not Will Levis. Obviously, NFL draft capital is going to have a lot to do with that.

As the holder of 1.08, I’m very much hoping one of those top three wide receivers makes it to me. I would not mind Addison at all as I have him as the WR2 of this class.

I love your selection of Keyshawn Boutte at 1.09, and I’m hoping he makes it to me at 1.10. I feel like he might be the steal of the draft if he can bring his early college success to the NFL. That nagging ankle injury might just make him one of the better values of 2023 for both fantasy, and the real NFL. I’ve seen him mocked to Dallas a few times, which IMO, would be an ideal landing spot.

 

[-OZ-]

I have the 8 and 12 in my SF. choosing between Mayer and Levis might be tough but I’m probably swinging for the QB. But I doubt he even makes it out of the top 5 by the time we draft.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Looking at this draft I think the huge drop off would be after abanikanda. Rice, Miller, Abanikanda all getting some decent love.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a 1st round nfl draft pick.
He'll be at the back end of most 1st round rookie drafts for sure.

 

[Lehigh98]

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a 1st round nfl draft pick.
He'll be at the back end of most 1st round rookie drafts for sure.

I agree, he wasn't on my radar last year (devy) and I need to get a better feel for him before this year's rookie drafts.
I also think he'll make it up to first round in rookie drafts.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a 1st round nfl draft pick.
He'll be at the back end of most 1st round rookie drafts for sure.

That’s what I’ve been seeing too in NFF mocks, and fantasy.

Outside possibility he id a day 2 pick in the NFL, which might drop him to the second round… But he does seem pretty far down this mock list.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have the 8 and 12 in my SF. choosing between Mayer and Levis might be tough but I’m probably swinging for the QB. But I doubt he even makes it out of the top 5 by the time we draft.

Man, Levis & Richardson *both* going between 5-7 would be a dream come true for me with 8 & 10, needing WRs.

 

[socrates]

1.01 Bijan Robinson I believe Bijan will be the 1.01 in most rookie drafts, regardless of format
1.02 CJ Stroud Young and Stroud, in some order, are the top QBs
1.03 Bryce Young
1.04 Jahmyr Gibbs This seems to be the consensus on Gibbs, and I agree, but let's see what happens if he weighs in lighter than expected
1.05 Jaxon Smith-Njigba JSN, Johnston and Addison are the early tier 1 WRs , but there isn't much of a consensus in their order.
1.06 Quentin Johnston
1.07 Anthony Richardson Ridiculous upside, but still a raw passer (not as raw as Malik or T. Lance)
1.08 Jordan Addison
1.09 Kayshon Boutte (mine) I like him as WR4 as well.
1.10 Zach Evans You have to be concerned he was passed by a true freshman
1.11 Zach Charbonnet I like the first round dynasty investment. It will be interesting to do a price check comparison in May
1.12 Michael Mayer The top TE in this class
2.01 Will Levis QB4 seems right
2.02 Sean Tucker Checks many of the boxes you want from a RB prospect
2.03 Tank Bigsby Bigsby is all over the place in rankings
2.04 Zay Flowers Flowers could move up even from here, but I love that you have him this high
2.05 Josh Downs Downs is in what is a strong Tier 2 of WRs
2.06 Roschon Johnson I have seen him moving up, but this is much earlier than I would expect
2.07 Devon Achane*** Size will scare many away, but he is an exciting prospect
2.08 Rashee Rice Rice could be a steal at this spot, but let's see where he ranks in May
2.09 Kendre Miller (mine) Miller is not getting the love he deserves in mock draft circles, but the fantasy community seems to love him
2.10 Israel Abanikanda
2.11 Cedric Tillman
2.12 Rakim Jarrett He has steadily descended in my rankings. I just don't see any special skills
3.01 Marvin Mims
3.02 Dalton Kincaid This seems like a value pick here, but TE investments are always iffy
3.03 Jalin Hyatt Another potential value pick based on most rankings, but I don't love his tape
3.04 Darnell Washington I have moved him below Luke Musgrave who is more athletic. Washington is big, but his tape did not impress me
3.05 Deuce Vaughn Sproles 2.0 or Boston Scott 2.0? He checks every box except size
3.06 Tyjae Spears Spears is fun to watch. I want to see how he does at the Senior Bowl
3.07 Chase Brown Some great value at RB in this range!
3.08 Parker Washington
3.09 Eric Gray (mine)
3.10 Xavier Hutchinson Potential value pick at WR if he lasts this long

Thanks for posting this. Well done. Great to see these early drafts. Things will obviously change drastically over the coming weeks and months, and it is fun to track those shifts in value.

 

[Boston]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

Yeah - while he might bust, he also might boom. If he's on the board at 2.01 where I'm picking I'm gonna have a hard time passing that value up. Coin flip that he turns a massive profit? Yes please. The same might be said for Richardson.

 

[Boston]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

Yeah - while he might bust, he also might boom. If he's on the board at 2.01 where I'm picking I'm gonna have a hard time passing that value up. Coin flip that he turns a massive profit? Yes please. The same might be said for Richardson.

Even if he eventually busts he will still have a window of value...the math dictates that...12 teams in the league and 32 NFL teams...there will be some teams in dire need of QB depth and teams in that situation usually overpay...you just need to make a decision on him early if you are feeling the bust coming.

 

[barackdhouse]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

Yeah, he was really the main point of contention or argument amongst us at the back of the 1st round. The guy that took Mayer really hates Levis. Guy that took Evans right after I took Boutte said he was in love with Evans. But a few folks that drafted at the beginning of the round said they'd take Levis much earlier if they'd been OTC.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

Yeah, he was really the main point of contention or argument amongst us at the back of the 1st round. The guy that took Mayer really hates Levis. Guy that took Evans right after I took Boutte said he was in love with Evans. But a few folks that drafted at the beginning of the round said they'd take Levis much earlier if they'd been OTC.

tbh I found the Evans 1.10 pick a little odd.

He’s been getting almost no love in most NFL mocks I’ve seen (like not even a day 2 pick) and Tucker seems to have surpassed him in most FF mocks, as has Chabonet. And Achane. And maybe Bigsby too.

I’ve seen Levis as a 1st round mocked player in both NFL drafts, and SF mock drafts pretty regularly.

Not saying it’s a good or bad thing - it’s just incongruous with much of the FF community, and I haven’t see enough love for him in the NFL mock space to change that.

Wonder what that dude is seeing in Evans that practically no one else is. Things could change with a good combine - he has the physical measurables for sure. But at this point it seems like a reach in the 1st of FF drafts. He’d likely have to have 2nd round NFL draft capital, and a landing spot where he’d get a path to a heavy workload. At this point it doesn’t seem that likely, but like I said, things could change.

 

[Boston]

I don't care how many warts he has, getting Levis in the second round in a 12-team SF draft is a huge score.

Yeah, he was really the main point of contention or argument amongst us at the back of the 1st round. The guy that took Mayer really hates Levis. Guy that took Evans right after I took Boutte said he was in love with Evans. But a few folks that drafted at the beginning of the round said they'd take Levis much earlier if they'd been OTC.

tbh I found the Evans 1.10 pick a little odd.

He’s been getting almost no love in most NFL mocks I’ve seen (like not even a day 2 pick) and Tucker seems to have surpassed him in most FF mocks, as has Chabonet. And Achane. And maybe Bigsby too.

I’ve seen Levis as a 1st round mocked player in both NFL drafts, and SF mock drafts pretty regularly.

Not saying it’s a good or bad thing - it’s just incongruous with much of the FF community, and I haven’t see enough love for him in the NFL mock space to change that.

Wonder what that dude is seeing in Evans that practically no one else is. Things could change with a good combine - he has the physical measurables for sure. But at this point it seems like a reach in the 1st of FF drafts. He’d likely have to have 2nd round NFL draft capital, and a landing spot where he’d get a path to a heavy workload. At this point it doesn’t seem that likely, but like I said, things could change.

Monday morning QBing...but he would have been better off taking Levis at 1.10 and hoping Evans was there at 2.14 and if he gets picked after the 1.10 you offer the 2.14 and whatever you need to obtain him if you love him that much.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Monday morning QBing...but he would have been better off taking Levis at 1.10 and hoping Evans was there at 2.14 and if he gets picked after the 1.10 you offer the 2.14 and whatever you need to obtain him if you love him that much.

At this point he might be there at 3.10

 

[Birdie048]

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a 1st round nfl draft pick.
He'll be at the back end of most 1st round rookie drafts for sure.

Jalin Hyatt Tenn WR - I have seen this a few times and I am having a hard time buying it ... I don't know enuf to go for him at end-1st.
Granted I don't play SF, so high QB picks are not same
Maybe I should dig into ZWK's WR spreadsheet! I just need to be sold on him ... as I have 4 x 1st coming up!

K Miller at 2.09 & Rice at 2.08 are major value picks IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jalin Hyatt is going to be a 1st round nfl draft pick.
He'll be at the back end of most 1st round rookie drafts for sure.

Jalin Hyatt Tenn WR - I have seen this a few times and I am having a hard time buying it ... I don't know enuf to go for him at end-1st.
Granted I don't play SF, so high QB picks are not same
Maybe I should dig into ZWK's WR spreadsheet! I just need to be sold on him ... as I have 4 x 1st coming up!

K Miller at 2.09 & Rice at 2.08 are major value picks IMO.

Wasn’t Hyatt the 2022 Biletnikoff Award winner? He beat out Marvin Harrison Jr who everyone’s going nutty over for next year.

I also believe he’ll be a 1st round NFL draft pick. If he’s not, he’s going to be a potential bargain in dynasty rookie mocks if he falls to 1.10 or later.

People are vastly underestimating the depth of this receiver class.