Frostillicus
Footballguy
Nuggets -230
Wolves +195
Wolves +195
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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread: Sad Minnesota fan remembers Vikings season is up next (49 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
Kev4029
Footballguy
I think those are some pretty good odds if you wanted to bet on the Wolves. The Nuggets looked pretty ****ty in the Lakers series.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Would you like to wager a 6-pack on this series? Can we ship beer? Is it hard to do? I'll bet a six pack if I don't have to much work.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
I thought it would be a littler tighter to be honest. But I also think Wolves fans are riding a huge high and Nuggets fans are probably way more cautious, so these odds being where they are tells me Vegas loves the Nuggets. Good thing Vegas is always wrong.
Right?
identikit
Footballguy
Just don't lose.
Kev4029
Footballguy
There is definitely some recency bias from the fans (and probably the ESPN types) thinking that the Wolves looked great against a good team that many picked to win, and the Nuggets looked soft vs a team that any reasonable "expert" picked the Nuggets to beat reasonably easily. I would probably have set that line at closer to +160-170 if I were setting it, being that the Nuggets have home court and it's the best home court in the NBA, statistically speaking.
From the Nuggets perspective, I think there are a few things that are legitimate worries, but most of the big statistical indicators that point to issues are mostly abnormalities (3pt% - they missed so many open threes from good shooters, FTr - the Lakers don't foul much and generally get a kind whistle). My worries are 1. Jokic just didn't play that well - statistically he looks great, but it didn't feel great, 2. The team came out slow in all five games and seemed flat for much more of the series then the seemed engaged, 3. The bench was godawful, some of that will get better (I trust Braun and Watson to be what they were this season) but some of it won't (I also trust Jackson and Holiday to be what they were this season), 4. They are kind of injured - KCP has a finger issue and now a sprained ankle and Murray has this calf strain.
I also think the Wolves offense will come down to earth with a real defense against them. Still, the only two teams that worry me against the Nuggets are Boston and Minnesota.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Hot Diggity Dog
Footballguy
Wow, that is surprising. Vegas not giving much credit to the Suns? Or just expecting a lot of money to head to the Nuggets initially?
Jayrod
Footballguy
I would have picked the Lakers in a series over the Suns if they played each other for what that's worth.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
what a Moe wants, what a Moe needs
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Maxey most improved, no one cares though cause we all hate the 76ers.
mr. furley
Footballguy
THE WORST
msudaisy26
Footballguy
,
How can you feel bad for him? A big problem with the roster is his fault, if he demanded a trade they would trade him and he just resigned last year. He seems happy to play out his last few years with the Lakers winning nothing.
How can you feel bad for him? A big problem with the roster is his fault, if he demanded a trade they would trade him and he just resigned last year. He seems happy to play out his last few years with the Lakers winning nothing.
Zow
Footballguy
Agreed, I think it's hard to feel "badly" for him because a lot of this is his doing. I also think I understand Capella's point though that, longevity-wise, Lebron has had the best career (and I don't think that's debatable) so it's unfortunate that Lebron's last few years won't be remember proportionate to how well he played in that stretch. But, I don't feel badly for Lebron about that. If anything I feel "badly" for basketball history.
Jayrod
Footballguy
:midddlefinger:
I agree. I think he may be trying to introduce some uncertainty to force the Lakers to max him out and draft his kid. I don’t think there’s a real shot of him leaving.
Jayrod
Footballguy
He did get them a title. Kobe hung on for 2 seasons just chucking up 20 shots a game and not making the playoffs but the Lakers fans still loved him and endured it because of the rings he had gotten them.
Capella
Footballguy
Bc he’s my favorite player and I want to see him competing for a title, not depending on D’Angelo Russell jacking up 25 shots while losing in round 1.
mr. furley
Footballguy
i still love you, gb
farfromforgotten
Footballguy
I thought he was supposed to depend more on AD when he came aboard. Him going 8/11 from the field in a game lost by 2 pts confuses the heck out of me.
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Me too, because that would boost the value of the two ATL first round picks owned by the Spurs ('25 and '27, plus a '26 swap). Let's do this!
Would it though?
the moops
Footballguy
Meh. Lakers shot 30% from three for the series. Denver shot 31%
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Lakers shot .299, Nuggets .308. That .009 means something when the games are as close as most of them were. If both teams shot .308, the Lakers would still be playing right now. Point being, though they have a ton of crud on the roster, if the Lakers could find a guy who shot 3's consistently at something like a .400 clip (and consistently is key here, Russel can't be depended on), they'd be pretty tough. I don't know how they find that guy though. Maybe they can get lucky in the draft.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I get it. Curry is my favorite current player, but I don't feel bad for him when you know he had a say in bringing Green back and maybe Klay.
Kev4029
Footballguy
That .009 is 1.3 additional threes made. Hypothetically, and additional three could have made a difference or it could have been an extra three in game 1 or game 4 and would have had zero difference.
I heard a stat that prior to game 5 the nuggets were shooting 25% on wide open threes, and most of those were coming from MPJ, KCP, and Murray who are all better than 40% three points shooters.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
MPJ shot .488 on 3's for the series on 41 shots, leading the team for 3pa. That's pretty ****ing good, whether he was open or not.
Contrast that with DeAngelo Russell who shot 44 3s at .318 for the series, leading the team for 3pa. That's pretty ****ing bad, whether he was open or not.
If the Lakers had a guy who could hit open 3's at 40% on drive and kicks, the Lakers are still playing. Instead LeBron and AD collapse the defense and it's brick city when they send the ball out to open shooters. You're nuts if you don't think that makes a difference.
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
Team Odds
Los Angeles Lakers +250
San Antonio Spurs +500
Philadelphia 76ers +500
Oklahoma City Thunder +750
Cleveland Cavaliers +1000
Chicago Bulls +1200
Los Angeles Clippers +1500
Detroit Pistons +1800
The Field +475
Early odds for Lebron next season.
Los Angeles Lakers +250
San Antonio Spurs +500
Philadelphia 76ers +500
Oklahoma City Thunder +750
Cleveland Cavaliers +1000
Chicago Bulls +1200
Los Angeles Clippers +1500
Detroit Pistons +1800
The Field +475
Early odds for Lebron next season.
Oh come on now. He's got that in season tournament trophy to relish.
Zow
Footballguy
Not loving to read this stat as a Minnesota fan... Denver almost certainly will shoot better against them just to return to the statistical mean.
trader jake
Footballguy
In this magical world, do the Lakers still get their huge, season-long free throw advantage or do they now get called for fouls at anywhere near the same rate as other teams? Asking for a friend that enjoys taking things to the bank.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
That'd be a question for the refs, doesn't really have much to do with the Lakers' roster issues. But since you mentioned it, it'd be nice if the Lakers could find guys who hit more of their free throws too. In the end they made only 4 more free throws than the Nuggets.
identikit
Footballguy
Gr00vus
Footballguy
More != all. Lakers shot 76.6% for the series, Nuggets shot 86.1%. That difference matters too, especially when your offense is predicated on scoring inside and drawing fouls (since they can't hit 3s).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Haven't seen a more detailed prognosis for Porzingas other than it's thought he avoided serious injury. He's been listed as out for Game 5 against the Heat. In listening to some talking heads, they were majorly concerned about the injury and felt the Celtics would be doomed if he missed time. But they actually were better when he didn't play this year (21-4) with a +12.6 net rating. In games without KP against playoff teams, they were 10-3 (wins against PHO x 3, PHI x 2, ORL, LAC, MIN, DAL, NOP with losses against IND, LAC, MIL).
Major
Footballguy
I remember the excuse being that they had to be healthy to gel as a unit. Well they were pretty healthy all year. Russell aint it but there's definitely more to it. I think Ham has to go.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Yeah, Ham made a less than ideal situation worse. His affinity for some players that didn't merit as much run as he gave them and his constant experimentation with the rotation were major issues this season. Maybe Max Christie isn't the answer, but you're never going to find that out keeping him buried on the depth chart behind guys like Dinwiddie and Prince - and they're definitely not the answer.
The Nuggets are a really good team because they have quality guys filling all the roles you need to compete in the modern NBA around their two leads. The Lakers aren't because they're LeBron, AD and a bunch of leftovers who fit under the salary cap. Reaves and Hachimura, maybe Vanderbilt could be contributors on a contender, but they're all having to play like one or two rungs higher than they should be because the roster is a mess, if that makes any sense. That Westbrook acquisition really messed this team up and they haven't recovered since. Now there's rumors of having a sequel with Trae. You'd have thought they'd learn from that lesson, but...
Major
Footballguy
Not sure how the contracts would work but Lebron on the Knicks would be pretty awesome.
Jayrod
Footballguy
Porzingis is needed to win it all, but they can beat anyone in the East without him.
If he misses a week or 2 I don't think it is a big problem other than getting him back in the flow.
Kev4029
Footballguy
This is the same injury that has kept Giannis out for a full three weeks so far, right?
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Jarrett Allen out tonight with a bruised rib.
Good news for my Magic.
Good news for my Magic.
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