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2023-24 NBA (Playoffs!) Thread, Presented by YouTubeTV (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
the moops
Footballguy
Who is talking about Tatum as MVP? Pretty sure he is like 5th or 6th on everyone's list
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's become a thing since the All Star Break and BOS's winning streak. It's been all over local and national sports talk the past week that he should be in the MVP conversation. Not that I care what he has to say, but Steven A. said he has him in the lead. I don't know of a site that has On / Off defensive player ratings.
The talk after the win against DAL was that Tatum had an MVP performance and had passed Luka in the MVP hierarchy. Luka was insanely good most of the game. Tatum was mostly an after thought the first half.
Tau837
Footballguy
Best player on best team is typically in the conversation.
the moops
Footballguy
By net rating Tatum is 7th in the league. White leads the league. Porzingis is third.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
:shakesfist:
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I see individual net ratings . . . but not On / Off court net ratings.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Yep.
And just when it seemed Jokic couldn't get any better he went added those awesome spin moves to his repertoire during the offseason
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
In general I agree that Jokic should be the front runner- but it is hard to ignore what Shai and Luka are doing this season.
In regard to Tatum or any other Celtics player this season- I personally am not compelled to see any of them win it. You take Tatum off of the Celtics- Brown, Porzingis, Holiday and White are probably still good enough to achieve a top 4 seed. Take Jokic off of the Nuggets, take Shai off of the Thunder, take Luka off the Mavs, take Giannis off of the Bucks and see where those teams would finish.
The only Tatum MVP conversation I've heard is Bill Simmons vigorously arguing Tatum wasn't a serious candidate.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Bobby Portis a board away from yet another double double as he leads his Bucks to another victory and marches on towards his improbable 6th Man of the Year award.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It's funny how different sports leagues operate. It's in the realm of possibility that the Celtics could have 10 more wins than any other team by the end of the season (at least that's what the geeky analytics sites would lead people to believe . . . they are projected them to have 65 or 66 wins). In the NFL, that would make Tatum the favorite to be MVP (the best player on the best team). I agree that the Celtics would still be good without Tatum . . . but who knows how much an extended absence would impact what they run and the production of the rest of the team. Availability is one of the pluses for Tatum, as he almost always plays. But since he joined the Celtics, they are 16-20 (.444) when he doesn't play and 327-168 (.661) when he does play. If Tatum was out all season and they won at the same clip as they historically have when he sits, they would be battling ATL for the 10th seed in the East. (Yes, I understand, this year's team is better, and they likely wouldn't be 26-33 like the Hawks are currently).
Jokic should have won MVP again last year (and should win again this year). I know a lot of people are picking DEN to go back-to-back (which certainly is a strong possibility). The one thing I haven't really heard discussed was the path the Nuggets went through last year vs. who the potential opponents could be this year. I understand a team can only face the teams on their schedule, but the Nuggets won three of their 4 playoff series against 3 of the 4 play-in teams last year (and the other team was a 4 seed). Last season, there were only 3 teams that won more than 45 games in the West. This year, there could be 10 teams with that total. Again, the Nuggets are great, but they will likely have more competition this year to win the title than last year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Hadn't really kept tabs of who the 6th man candidates are this year. But since you brought it up, Draft Kings has the odds as:
Monk - 275
LaVert and Reid +800
Powell +1000
Hardaway +1400
Portis +3000
Westbrook +3500 (although probably out with his injury)
Bogdanovic +4000
Mathurin +7000
Clarkson +8000
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
In last seasons playoffs—the Celtics played 2 of the play in teams to make it to the finals. The Hawks and the Heat. They nearly got swept by the Heat. It doesn’t matter by sport for me. When I take in consideration for most valuable player—I look at relevant and competitive teams and see how they would look without them the year the award is being issued. If you go to the Shark Pool—you will see that I was a huge advocate for Lamar winning MVP because I felt like he did more with the Ravens with less talent around him (starting RB injured early, Andrews missed a chunk of the season). Looking at the Celtics THIS year—that team is absolutely stacked. The additions of Porzingis and Holiday are massive. Sure, I would’ve be surprised if the Celtics had a bad record here or there if Tatum missed a few games randomly—but if he suffered a season ending injury early in the season—I would bet you that the rest of talent on that team would gel and would end up with a solid seed in the East. We have already seen what Philadelphia looks like without Embiid. The Mavs wouldn’t be a playoff team without Luka. The Thunder would not be close to a top seed without Shai…etc. Sure—every person has their own metrics for who they like for awards—but for me—-it’s going to be more difficult for a player from a stacked team to win the ultimate individual reward. I understand that not everybody would agree with this dynamic.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Sorry I’m dumb.
Cleaning the glass does have it. If I had a sub I would share the info
Kev4029
Footballguy
I think SGA is in the conversation.
the moops
Footballguy
Agreed.
Tier 1 - Jokic, SGA
Tier 2 - Giannis, Luka
Tier 3 - Kawhi, Tatum, Haliburton (likely to miss the games played mark though)
Tier 4 - KD, Brunson, Mitchell
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
For the record, the pistons no longer have the worst record in the league. They don’t even have the worst win percentage in Detroit. (Detroit Mercy is 1-29)
:confetti:
:confetti:
msudaisy26
Footballguy
If you looked at all basketball being played in the state of Michigan right now at the college and professional level they would declare us out for the season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Basketball Reference has the probabilities as follows (not that they know more than we do):
Jokic - 46.4%
SGA - 17.1%
Giannis - 13.9%
Luka - 11.7%
Tatum - 4.3%
Sabonis - 2.7%
Mitchell 1.2%
AD - 1.0%
Porzingas - 0.9%
Booker - 0.8%
No Kawhi, Haliburton, KD, or Brunson.
Draft Kings has it at:
Jokic -145 (roughly 59%)
SGA +230 (30%)
Luka +500 (16.7%)
Giannis +1600 (5.9%)
Tatum +2500 (3.8%)
Kawhi +15000 (0.63%)
Brunson +20000 (0.47%)
Edwards + 30000 (0.31%)
Major
Footballguy
It amazes how many people are overlooking Edwards. He's been leading that team to the best record in the West which is hella impressive after last season. Tier 2 IMO.
the moops
Footballguy
I love Ant. Think he is awesome. He is still too inefficient though. 58.9 TS% is just not good enough. It is by far the lowest of any dudes I mentioned
Jokic 65.0%
SGA 65.3%
Doncic 62.9%
Giannis 65.7%
Kawhi 63.9%
Tatum 61.0%
the moops
Footballguy
This is absolutely wild.
Lakers' LeBron James is the first NBA player to score 40,000 points.James scored his first 10,000 points in the exact same number of games as it took him to go from 30,000 to 40,000- 10K in 368 games- 10K to 20K in 358 games- 20K to 30K in 381 games- 30K to 40K in 368 games
Lakers' LeBron James is the first NBA player to score 40,000 points.James scored his first 10,000 points in the exact same number of games as it took him to go from 30,000 to 40,000- 10K in 368 games- 10K to 20K in 358 games- 20K to 30K in 381 games- 30K to 40K in 368 games
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Kev4029
Footballguy
I think there is such a massive gap between Tier 2 and Tier 3 that Tiers 3/4 don't even matter. Unless all four of the Tier 1/2 guys failed to meet the games played threshold, nobody else will get a serious mention.
For what it is worth, I also think Booker is much more valuable than KD other than the fact that the Suns have terrible front court and some passible backcourt depth. And I also think the floor raising offense of Mitchell and Brunson is less impressive than what Booker does.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I think a lot of it has to do with how unlikable Booker is.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I shared that with a handful of buddies yesterday because it is wildly impressive. The "dead-ball" era of the late 90s and early 00s as well as the "live-ball" era of the 2020s is partially what made that possible, but it's ****ing bonkers that he is still an All-NBA level player at his age.
As I was watching the game last night, I started thinking about him with regards to Jordan. Pending his availability to get him to 65 games, he is nearly a lock for All-NBA 3rd team with a chance at All-NBA second team. And we still still get those spurts of him being the best player on the floor against other All-NBA/MVP types. For me, his longevity at superstar level has vaulted him past Jordan, even though Jordan's absolute highest peak was better.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Booker may be the least likable star the NBA has seen in a while - it doesn't help his cause that he is clearly a ****-talking front-runner. Durant is hardly likeable in his own right though.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Not that it matters much, but in regards to potential tier 3 and tier 4 MVP consideration guys—I think a guy that is being massively overlooked is Steph Curry. The Warriors are playing some fantastic basketball. Klay has fallen off considerably, Draymond has missed a lot of time, Wiggins has been in and out of the lineup—and yet the Warriors are only 2-3 wins behind teams like the Suns, Mavs, and Kings.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Plus, Jordan couldn't even win the In Season Tournament
Instinctive
Footballguy
BINGO.
Capella
Footballguy
This is always my argument. Jordan’s peak was better (slightly, Heat Lebron was unbelievable) but Lebron’s total picture is better.
Instinctive
Footballguy
DOUBLE BINGO
it also probably doesn't help that the perception is that he folds under pressure every time (blown lead NBA Finals from 2-0, obliterated in both game 7 vs dallas, game 7 (6?) vs denver) faster than the new cheaper flimsy Amazon cardboard boxes.
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Major
Footballguy
I'll take a little inefficiency for best record in the West. He's asked to do a lot more for his team than Tatum or Kawhi.
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Kev4029
Footballguy
On that note, I got curious after this little winning streak of Denver's...
Of playoff teams/contenders in the West here is the remaining SOS:
- PHX .583
- LAL .529
- LAC .526
- MIN .509
- NOP .509
- OKC .504
- SAC .502
- DEN .491
- GS .480
- DAL .479
- Denver is 0.5 games back of Minnesota, tied with OKC (although OKC has the higher win%), and 2.5 games ahead of LAC.
- Denver only has one more back-to-back left on their schedule - @ the Jazz, vs the TWolves, the TWolves are also on B2B, coming from Washington. The TWolves and OKC have 4 B2Bs, LAC has 6.
- The only team with fewer games remaining (21) are the Lakers (20), and the only other team with 21 games remaining is New Orleans.
- The only team with more games at home remaining (13) are the Kings (15).
- Of the Nuggets remaining 8 road games, 4 are against the Grizz/Spurs/Jazz/Blazers. AND the Nuggets play 3 more games against the TWolves, 2 of which are at home.
- They end the season with 5/7 teams that will be tanking their asses off (Grizz/Spurs x 2/Jazz/Hawks).
I would set the O/U on expected wins for the Nuggets to close out the final 21 games at probably 16 (58-24 final record). I don't know if it is possible to bet on the #1 regular season seed, but I think the Nuggets should be heavy favorites and it doesn't look like any of the projection systems agree.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
The rest of the NBA should bring thrilled the playoffs don't start for about 2 more months because right now no one can touch the Celtics.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Meh. We'll see how things go on 3/7 when they play the Nuggets in Denver.
Joker & Co. already took care of business on Boston's home floor in January.
identikit
Footballguy
Welp
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I am talking right now. Not 6 weeks ago. Denver might be the only team that could push them to 6 or more right now.
Capella
Footballguy
Yea ok. Wait till they play the Joker.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
The Celtics played lockdown defense at the end of the half like it was Game Seven of the championship, all just to keep Golden State from hitting 40 points.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
We will see, but they just let Luka go nuts on them to only win by 28. Hopefully there is no resting of players that day. Should be a fun watch.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I just realized Porzingus isn't even playing lol.
IiRC when the Nuggets beat the Celtics the Celtics were undefeated on their home floor
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