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🐴 *** 2023 Aniscule Thread *** 🇮🇹 Ha Vinto Il Cavallo Di Mio Cugina - ARCANGELO! 🇮🇹 🐴 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Race 5
Ex key box 7/8,9
Ex key box 7/8,9
McBokonon
Footballguy
Been playing a little lately with the Derby prep races happening (Sunland Derby today). Looks like @otb_lifer hasn’t been around since September. Did he get another time out, anyone know him IRL?
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I’m playing Informed Patriot $10 to win unless he gets bet way down, it’s the money back special race at TVG today
McBokonon
Footballguy
Do you have Twinspires where you are? They’re doing a money back special on the same race. Might take a couple shots between them and TVG. Looking at Patriot and Lucky Jeremy.
rockaction
Footballguy
Voluntarily absent.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I’ve had them all at one time or another. I only use TVG now
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Joel is my boy and I feel like with him going there today to ride this race and Asmussens filly he has a great chance. Probly going to take alot of $$$ though
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
9/5 2mtp
pass for me
pass for me
-fish-
Footballguy
I only use Twinspires, but that's because I bet Australia and they offer more options and more races than TVG.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
So we were planning to go to keeneland 4/19-4/21. I set a reminder that tickets go on sale today at 9am. I logged in and was placed in the queue at 845. At 9am I was informed there were 2000+ people in front of me. My turn came at 9:40….entire grandstand sold out for Saturday. Ouch. Checked Friday, found 2 available seats and they weren’t together.@otb_lifer
My wife and I booked a weekend in Lexington KY next April. You know of anything to do around there that time of the year?
Hotel canceled
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Hah - went to Santa Anita on Sunday. My daughter has Corgi's and one of hers was accepted into the Corgi Winter Nationals. So the whole family went. Thousands of Corgi's. Ours broke from the gate like Chinook Pass but then bolted to the outside and ran in circles. Should have been a vet scratch! Will be back on the Kentucky Derby trail again. Personally, I think Baffert is getting hosed. The fact that CD could impose a 2 year ban and then just add another year because they felt like it is total BS. Now none of his horses are eligible to get points. Complete farce that harms the sport.
Speaking of farce, California racing is done. Over. Finito. Majority of the races had 6 horses. Bunch of $20K Maiden Claimers. On a weekend. Golden Gate had the same. Then you look up and see 12 horse fields at Oaklawn, Gulfstream, etc. They should just shut it down in CA. Bay Meadows closed. Golden Gate next. Real estate too valuable. Santa Anita dirt has to be worth an ungodly amount. Talk about prime real estate. The only one that makes any sense to keep as a racetrack is Del Mar. Los Al too, because of quarters, but their TB product is sh*t.
Speaking of farce, California racing is done. Over. Finito. Majority of the races had 6 horses. Bunch of $20K Maiden Claimers. On a weekend. Golden Gate had the same. Then you look up and see 12 horse fields at Oaklawn, Gulfstream, etc. They should just shut it down in CA. Bay Meadows closed. Golden Gate next. Real estate too valuable. Santa Anita dirt has to be worth an ungodly amount. Talk about prime real estate. The only one that makes any sense to keep as a racetrack is Del Mar. Los Al too, because of quarters, but their TB product is sh*t.
-fish-
Footballguy
Golden Gate is closing permanently after the summer session.
-fish-
Footballguy
Anyone playing Tampa Bay Downs today? Tampa Bay Derby is pretty weak this year. None of these horses are going to contend in a triple crown race. That being said, Irad at 15-1? Sure. Key box and a tri with the favorites.
@Cowboysfan8
@otb_lifer
@Judge Smails
@Cowboysfan8
@otb_lifer
@Judge Smails
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Yep
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
7,9,10 ex box race 7
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
I hit the ex in race 10 @tampa and still haven’t been paid lol
That never happened before
Not sure I really see a scenario where Dornoch wins. I want to convince myself that he can, because he's likely to go off at odds that feel longer than they should be. But if there isn't a pace meltdown, then I think Fierceness is the best horse by a lot. And if there is a pace meltdown, then one of the closers should win (Sierra Leone looks the most likely, but imo any deep closer has a shot in that scenario).
-fish-
Footballguy
I don't necessarily see Dornoch winning, but I like him to hit the board, so he's going to be key in my exactas and tris. I'm fading Fierceness.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
0 research yet
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Dornoch is a toss with the rail draw. Fierceness will be very tough to beat. Think it only happens with a bad break. If he breaks clean he’s likely gone. I’ll have some backup bets that could pay boxcars if that happens. But otherwise I’m focused on underneath. Just Steel will run a big one for Lukas IMO. Starting with him. Sierra Leone will be coming but needs a great trip. Encino is getting the buzz from clockers with great workouts but quick turnaround. So far I don’t really like much else
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Encino now out
Judge Smails
Footballguy
OK - let's start with the throwouts to narrow the contenders. Of the 20 starters I have 12 complete throwouts and 3 others I'm on the fence on. These horses are either too slow, wrong style, backed up in their last, etc.
Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)
That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:
Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.
Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most
Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.
That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:
Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.
Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch
Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.
Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.
Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.
In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.
Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!
Dornoch
Mystik Dan
Catalytic
TO Password
Track Phantom
West Saratoga
Domestic Product
Grand Mo the First
Resilience
Society Man
Epic Ride
Stronghold (never even ran a 90 Beyer and very weak year for California)
That's 12 that I'm totally confident won't find any part of the superfecta. Gets you to 8. The 3 I'm on the fence are and will only use lightly:
Just a Touch - Sierra Leone blew by him at 1 1/8 miles and going another 1/8 doesn't bode well. Only way he sticks around is if some of the other speed doesn't get out there. Likely to get cooked by Fierceness. Possible to get a minor award but doubt it. He was all out and don't see him repeating.
Forever Young - any horse that's 5-5 at longer distance and has Sunday Silence/Deep Impact blood is hard to throw out. Trying the Japan/Dubai leap which hasn't worked yet and I'm not blown away by his works. On a few saver tickets at most
Endlessly - this one is a bit more interesting to me. 5 out of 6 and he did OK in Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf from a wide post. Loss by 3 1/2 which is not disgraceful. All other races he closed with a rush. The issue? All on turf or synthetic. Normally that would be a toss for me. And Oscar Performance/Kitten's Joy/Langfur screams turf. But he's working very well on the dirt (at least by times, I'll have to read workout reports to see if he did it easily, got over the ground, etc.). Often these horses can't deal with dirt kickback so it's a question mark. Could run big or last. But he's not an auto toss for me to get a piece.
That leaves 5 to discuss in all slots:
Fierceness - if he breaks clean on the outside and rates a bit he could air, especially if Sierra Leone has any traffic trouble which is likely. If you're taking a big swing though you could toss him on a few tickets, hope he breaks poorly and spits the bit. He's done that twice already. So he's not a machine. Things have to go his way.
Sierra Leone - Logical winner if Fierceness doesn't fire. Will relish the 1 1/4, always closes with a rush. Came from dead last like a freight train in the Blue Grass. Race was a bit of a set up as so many horses went early. Still, should be plenty of pace in this one and If Tyler gets a good trip he will be a menace in the stretch
Catching Freedom - Benefit of having Prat. Never run a bad one. Both losses had legitimate issues, including in tight and getting stymied at the 16th pole. Has the right finishing style and was only 1 1/4 lengths behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star - and he had trouble. Fast enough with a 97 Beyer. If he gets a great trip and Fierceness or Sierra Leone don't he could win. Heck - he might win anyway. Loved the way he calmly rated in last and then just went wide and inhaled em. Best value in the field at 8-1 ML.
Just Steel - can't see him winning but he'll be underneath in all slots for me. Grinder who has tactical speed and can finish a bit as shown vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby. I like that no horses passed him in the stretch and he was gaining a bit on Muth through the stretch. Lukas has a foundation in him and knows how to get horses ready for the Derby. Will have to avoid getting pinballed at the start from the 6 hole and get in good position. If he does I think he's in the super and will bet him hard in exactas/tri's. Just hope K. Asmussen can be poised in this huge of a race.
Honor Marie - has run 3 good races at CD. Only bad race in the slop in the Risen Star. Only got beat a length to Catching Freedom in the LA Derby. He got a great trip and was all out as the speed died so don't love him. He's an underneath play for me only. Not sure if Curtis can get it done as a jockey in this big of a race but I bet the horse - less so the jockey. But these are low percentage connections so at least you'll get a big price.
In summary - these 5 will be on all my tickets. I really think only Fierceness, Sierra Leone or Catching Freedom can win the race unless Forever Young overcomes all obstacles and delivers. I don't think Fierceness nor Sierra Leone will be value enough for me to play straight. Not going to bet either at current 5/2-3/1. If Catching Freedom stays anywhere near 8-1 he will be a win bet. Maybe a saver only on Forever Young as a backup, but he won't be a key play. Otherwise I'll just hone in on verticals with my top 3 in the win slot and them plus Just Steel for sure and less Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Endlessly and maybe Forever Young also underneath in exactas, tri's and supers.
Looking forward to other opinions from my handicapping amigos. We've hit this several times - let's go!
Chemical X
Footballguy
i’m not so fast to throw our stronghold. i get the beyer, but eyes don’t lie either. he’s won at CD and i think beyer hates sprint style races, SH has lost 2 races under a mile. his last was an impressive score. i think he is live.
