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SI's Contrarian NBA strategy: https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2014-15-nba-betting-public-report/
tl;dr: road dogs playing in conference and getting less than 35% public support cover 58% of the time, sample size 528 games.
Just as in baseball, at some point it makes more sense for a club's long-term health if you cash in a player for money instead of letting him walk when his contract is up. It's not ideal, sure, but a savvy team can find replacements and not be slowed down too badly by the loss of a huge star.
Obviously a couple of their big signings have come right out of Dortmund as of late, but I think they (as well as most of the massive clubs) are pretty agnostic as to who they're picking players from. You're taking a player from a rival, but you're also handing them a crate of money.
I found a ranking system (based on betting odds) for the Top 100 teams in Europe. No clue how valid this is, but it seems to at least look somewhat plausible upon first glance.
Interesting that a couple of Championship teams rank well ahead of several EPL clubs...
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