Stray Doug
Footballguy
Looks like they don't have the fumble return for TD 6 points credited to NO defense.
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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
I’m going to be a sweaty guy tomorrow. At 122.55 with Mostert -7.6, Ferguson -5.7, and Titans -7. Technically have Gainwell too but if he does clear 7.6, it won’t be by much.
Not liking my chances to advance but the cut lion for the free subscription top 225 is 103.3 and the $100 top 250 is 95.3. Those are in play even without big games from my remaining players.
Feels like Hurts and Love are the big movers since I think a lot of owners are replacing zeros with them.
Not liking my chances to advance but the cut lion for the free subscription top 225 is 103.3 and the $100 top 250 is 95.3. Those are in play even without big games from my remaining players.
Feels like Hurts and Love are the big movers since I think a lot of owners are replacing zeros with them.
Puppies
Footballguy
If my team were still alive, I'd be sitting on 184.15 after the 4pm games, with Mostert -9.6 and Parris Campbell - 6.9 left to play...
And I have $77 in dead money, (10 players out injured) plus 2 players on bye.
QUESTION: Did anyone see a cut line published after the 1pm games? I'm assuming the 114.15 is after the 4pm games...
And I have $77 in dead money, (10 players out injured) plus 2 players on bye.
QUESTION: Did anyone see a cut line published after the 1pm games? I'm assuming the 114.15 is after the 4pm games...
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dbc925
Footballguy
Balco
Footballguy
How high is the cut line going to go? I might be in big trouble. I have Love -3.8 (Herbert’s points), and Mostert -12.8 (actually would be fine with him putting up a poor line since he is so widely owned). And that’s it. 1 point from my only kicker (dicker) and 3 points from d (lions/panthers yikes).
Currently at 139.1 cut lion at 127.35.
Trying to figure out what players I need to root against.
Currently at 139.1 cut lion at 127.35.
Trying to figure out what players I need to root against.
Puppies
Footballguy
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
I think you’re very safe (unless Love gets hurt early). The top 2 ownership players are Love and Mostert so if the cut line jumps a lot, you’ll jump a lot.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
142.5 with Love (-30.5), and Mostert/Reed (-7.6 / 9.6) still out there. Not resting *super* easy but feel like I’ve got enough there to make my first finals— hard to see the Lion rising 20 points without at least one of those three guys heavily involved. Hopefully I don’t have to eat those words.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Puppies: It was never published by FBG, but I believe the early game cutline would have been 80.25. This guy had a mere 1.8 accumulated after the early Sunday games (from Mike Evans)... he made up ground later on Sunday, and has at least still got a shot tonight with Tua and Tyreek: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108219/week/14
I'm showing a projected final cut lion of 140.5 using FBG... myself projected for 134.7. So survival is possible with an above-expectation game from Tyreek and/or Jayden (and preferably below-expectation for other widely-owned players). But with my lone QB Herbert likely missing TNF this coming week, making the playoffs would now seem like an empty victory.
Top-225 would be nice at least, and again using FBG projections, I project the top-225 line after MNF to be around 134, so I'm also still very much in the running (but nowhere near assured) for that milestone/subscription, even if I end up missing the playoffs (right alongside HULK and BrncosFan07 in that regard, we all currently project within a point of each other near 135). firstseason is most likely done with a score of 139.25 (barring big game for Hyatt or Spears) and could come down to the wire as to whether the cut lion jumps past him tonight or not (but should probably be good for the top-225 regardless). ZWK, jdk, Balco, and dbc925 all look to be safely advancing to the playoffs.
I re-ran things with Tryeek only putting up 12.5 tonight (half his FBG projected 25)... in that scenario my score drops to 122.1 and a 139.2 cut lion, which is only a modest 1.3 drop to the cut lion. Similarly if Love has a below-average 15-point game the projected cut lion drops to 139.4, but a 31.9-point game from Love (which is his average over the past 3 weeks) raises the lion to 142.6 (his FBG projection is 23.3).
I'm showing a projected final cut lion of 140.5 using FBG... myself projected for 134.7. So survival is possible with an above-expectation game from Tyreek and/or Jayden (and preferably below-expectation for other widely-owned players). But with my lone QB Herbert likely missing TNF this coming week, making the playoffs would now seem like an empty victory.
Top-225 would be nice at least, and again using FBG projections, I project the top-225 line after MNF to be around 134, so I'm also still very much in the running (but nowhere near assured) for that milestone/subscription, even if I end up missing the playoffs (right alongside HULK and BrncosFan07 in that regard, we all currently project within a point of each other near 135). firstseason is most likely done with a score of 139.25 (barring big game for Hyatt or Spears) and could come down to the wire as to whether the cut lion jumps past him tonight or not (but should probably be good for the top-225 regardless). ZWK, jdk, Balco, and dbc925 all look to be safely advancing to the playoffs.
I re-ran things with Tryeek only putting up 12.5 tonight (half his FBG projected 25)... in that scenario my score drops to 122.1 and a 139.2 cut lion, which is only a modest 1.3 drop to the cut lion. Similarly if Love has a below-average 15-point game the projected cut lion drops to 139.4, but a 31.9-point game from Love (which is his average over the past 3 weeks) raises the lion to 142.6 (his FBG projection is 23.3).
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BroncosFan07
Footballguy
I’m up by a little more than 4 on the cut with realistically just Mostert able to improve me and of course, he’ll take the cut with him since more than 1/3rd of us have him. He replaces a 7 for me which I predict is lretty average for the Mostert teams. Some will be replacing near zeros, some will be replacing double digit numbers.
I think I’ll need 18-20+ from Mostert AND Love/Tua to have poor games. I do not like those odds!
Good luck all those sweating. I know we’re cheering against each other’s players in many situations but it’s all in good fun. I just want to see people from this thread take down a couple of the top prizes.
I think I’ll need 18-20+ from Mostert AND Love/Tua to have poor games. I do not like those odds!
Good luck all those sweating. I know we’re cheering against each other’s players in many situations but it’s all in good fun. I just want to see people from this thread take down a couple of the top prizes.
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
I'm about 12 above the current cutline with Mostert and Doubs (-12 and -12.4), so I need either one of them to go for 22+ or both to go over 18 to be safe as I expect the cutline to move by 20-ish...
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Only if multiple players have above-expectation games tonight will it move that much... performances in-line with FBG projections have it moving more like 13-ish.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
I’m at 100.50 with Love (only QB left) plus Hopkins, Doubs, and Hyatt (-4.6 and 0.0 at WR -12 at FLEX).
I’m not feeling great, but at the same time if Love puts up 30 and Hopkins and Doubs get 10 each, I’ll be at 150.5 which should be safe.
Either way, best I’ve ever done in this contest.
I also have the Packers D (-4) and Carlson (-18).
I’m not feeling great, but at the same time if Love puts up 30 and Hopkins and Doubs get 10 each, I’ll be at 150.5 which should be safe.
Either way, best I’ve ever done in this contest.
I also have the Packers D (-4) and Carlson (-18).
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Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
I know there was a guy who used to run a live scoring app for this contest. Pretty sure that doesn't exist anymore, is there some way, other than hand calc'ing, we can follow the live cutline?
(HULK)
(Smash)
Love this post. I'm not expecting to make it but maybe I've got one more miracle left.
Solomon Grundy
Footballguy
I actually like your chances. I'm guess you only need 40-45 points and you'll score your QB, Hopkins and Doubs at only -4.6. 45 Points from those three guys is very possible.
dbc925
Footballguy
Maybe not as much as I do.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
With a few mins left in 2nd Quarter, I have the cut lion at 128.25. I sure could use some big plays from Tyreek... I'm about 15 below.
Gotta go put kids to bed now, will try to check in during 2nd half.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Is Tyreek back in? I saw him get hurt on his second catch and I do not believe he’s been back in but I haven’t watched the last couple of drives
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Ugh, I didn’t know that. :(
We also lost power, so no more updates from me tonight. Will awake to see my fate, but with Tyreek out I’d need like 2 more Jayden Reed TDs to have a shot at it.
Nope. Left ankle taped up. He's comfortably out.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Tyreek just returned with 6:43 left in the third. No tape on ankle anymore.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Power is back on, kids are asleep, Tryeek's back in the game, and Hodgins caught a TD (who?)...
Early Q4 I've got the lion roaming at 131.65, I'm still 10 points back but with 3 viable scoring options available. Top-225 line is at 121.9 (that's me).
Early Q4 I've got the lion roaming at 131.65, I'm still 10 points back but with 3 viable scoring options available. Top-225 line is at 121.9 (that's me).
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
I believe I’m at 131.1 right now.
I need Tennessee to throw a few to Hopkins to try and make it a game late in the 4th.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Late Q4 after Heath and 2nd Mostert TD I've got the lion roaming at 139.85, I'm still 10 points back but with 3 viable scoring options available. Top-225 line is at 130.45.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Mostert is my hero! Up to 146 I think with the 2nd TD.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
The Hopkins TD puts me at 140.0, I think.
My actual league games are over, playoffs decided. This is the only thing I’m sweating over right now.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
2-min warning... Top 250 124.25... Top 225 132.7... Lion 142
Post-Henry TD... Top 250 124.25... Top 225 133... Lion 142.4
Final... Top 250 124.25... Top 225 133... Lion 142.7
Of course, take this all with a grain of salt... could have an error in there somewhere.
I think I finished at 129.9. Made the playoffs with my dynasty teams, just fell short here... avoided too many injuries this season, main ones were Ekeler early on and then Waller recently... but fate caught up with me this week serving me the double-whammy of Tyreek and Justin Herbert.
Setting a countdown timer on my phone for 8 months...
Post-Henry TD... Top 250 124.25... Top 225 133... Lion 142.4
Final... Top 250 124.25... Top 225 133... Lion 142.7
Of course, take this all with a grain of salt... could have an error in there somewhere.
I think I finished at 129.9. Made the playoffs with my dynasty teams, just fell short here... avoided too many injuries this season, main ones were Ekeler early on and then Waller recently... but fate caught up with me this week serving me the double-whammy of Tyreek and Justin Herbert.
Setting a countdown timer on my phone for 8 months...
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Even that probably wouldn't have been enough for me (I only had Reed, not Love). I've got you at 137.3. Looks like BrncosFan07 survived at 146.45, and that Tyjae Spears showed up and got firstseason into the playoffs at 144.55.
larry_boy_44
Footballguy
Final score 144.6
Now I sweat it out until the official update.
Now I sweat it out until the official update.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Official is 142.6, I was off by a tenth... accidentally counted Jayden Reed's last catch of the game twice.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
Thanks for all of your updates and sorry that the injury bug hit during the final week. Glad to see you made the top top 250 cut.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Week 14 started with 6 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of... NOBODY!!! Yes, we did lose @(HULK) and @scottybo for the finals, but both made it to the final 250, so we have 6 folks collecting Joe's offering.
Let's congratulate the following for advancing to the finals:
Page 10 - @ZWK @Balco
Page 9 - @firstseason1988
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07
Of note
- I would've been in the finals if not for week 12. Dag nabbit!
Best of luck to our 4 finalists. @Joe Bryant - please instruct the 6 winners on how to collect their dough, and thanx once again for the best FFL contest on the internet! Can't wait for the playoff contest!
Let's congratulate the following for advancing to the finals:
Page 10 - @ZWK @Balco
Page 9 - @firstseason1988
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07
Of note
- I would've been in the finals if not for week 12. Dag nabbit!
Best of luck to our 4 finalists. @Joe Bryant - please instruct the 6 winners on how to collect their dough, and thanx once again for the best FFL contest on the internet! Can't wait for the playoff contest!
Skipdog77
Footballguy
Break out the champagne and the ski goggles, baby! Headed to the playoff round, with a final 151.00 score.
First, let me pour some out for all of the good homies here who didn't make it. We'll try to make you proud.
Team has been in the 190's a few times, never broken 200, but still keeps chugging along. Don't think I have a shot at the title at all, but happy to be in it for the first time in my FBG career.
First, let me pour some out for all of the good homies here who didn't make it. We'll try to make you proud.
Team has been in the 190's a few times, never broken 200, but still keeps chugging along. Don't think I have a shot at the title at all, but happy to be in it for the first time in my FBG career.
Dacomish
Footballguy
Congrats to all those that made the finals (good luck!!) and to the 43 non-playoff teams that still won a subscription as being part of the top 250.
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
Dacomish
Footballguy
Chip and a chair, chip and a chair good luck!!
firstseason1988
Footballguy
bamabuddha
Footballguy
Congrats!
Was hoping to two peat myself for extra hundo but week 13 and byes did me in!
firstseason1988
Footballguy
Thanks for this contest. It's really lots of fun. Thanks to Joe for the extra $100. I'll be paying it right back to upgrade my free pro subscription to Hall of fame. Been playing it for a number of years. Don't think I have made it past week 11 before. Usually gone weeks 5-10. I think a week 2 out one year. Over the years I have learned some things. One of those things is you have to be lucky to make the finals. I definitely was this year. Some of my team came alive when others on my team were injured. I think I used all my players at least once except Aaron Rodgers. I got lucky week 14 when it was looking like I had no QB but hats off to Derek Carr for pushing to get back on the field to get me points to carry my barely to the finals. I don't expect to be a contender for the big money, but you never know. I haven't checked to see if some Sam Howell owners got booted during his week 14 bye week. One of the things I did to build my team was look at this thread and check some of the lesser expensive players that were on teams posted. I am not sure I would have picked Nacua, Dell, Hyatt, Chandler, and Spears without some help in this thread. I think Kyren Williams was my shot in the dark. Thanks for all the extra info you guys post. Really cool and informative.
| QB Aaron Rodgers - $14 | 0.00 |
| QB Derek Carr - $11 | 16.95 |
| QB Kenny Pickett - $10 | 0.00 |
| QB Sam Howell - $8 | 0.00 |
| RB Christian McCaffrey - $34 | 15.80 |
| RB Jahmyr Gibbs - $25 | 15.70 |
| RB Tyjae Spears - $9 | 14.80 |
| RB Keaontay Ingram - $6 | 0.00 |
| RB Kyren Williams - $4 | 12.80 |
| RB Ty Chandler - $3 | 5.70 |
| WR Calvin Ridley - $21 | 9.30 |
| WR Nico Collins - $10 | 2.30 |
| WR Odell Beckham Jr. - $9 | 19.70 |
| WR Joshua Palmer - $6 | 0.00 |
| WR Jalin Hyatt - $4 | 3.30 |
| WR Tank Dell - $3 | 0.00 |
| WR Puka Nacua - $3 | 14.00 |
| TE Darren Waller - $17 | 0.00 |
| TE Dalton Kincaid - $10 | 9.60 |
| TE Juwan Johnson - $9 | 4.00 |
| TE Tyler Conklin - $7 | 11.70 |
| PK Greg Zuerlein - $4 | 18.00 |
| PK Cameron Dicker - $4 | 1.00 |
| PK Riley Patterson - $4 | 1.00 |
| PK Dustin Hopkins - $3 | 9.50 |
| TD Las Vegas Raiders - $3 | 5.00 |
| TD Atlanta Falcons - $3 | 1.00 |
| TD Los Angeles Chargers - $3 | 4.00 |
| TD Detroit Lions - $3 |
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