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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (3 Viewers)

Eminence said:
We all know the NFL is a "next man up" league, especially at the Runningback position. You need no further proof of this than Tim Hightower last year who in the absence of Mark Ingram lead owners to fantasy championships.

If you've done your homework, you obviously know that Matt Jones the projected starting Runningback for the Washington Redskins went down with a shoulder injury. In his absence, Rob Kelley is taking his place and being given a chance to shine.

If Kelley is available in any format, you need to roster him right now:

Fantasy is a game of volume. The least talented player in the NFL can produce for your team if he gets touches. If Matt Jones misses Week 1, Rob Kelley is in store for plenty of touches. He is currently the #1 on the depth chart with Matt Jones out.

How many touches are available? Alfred Morris ran the ball 202 times last year and those carries inherently need to go to somebody else. Even assuming Matt Jones is healthy and we bump him up to 200 rushes this year, there are still 146 touches up for grab that could easily go to Kelley.

Kelley is an excellent fit in the Redskins offense primarily because he excelled in a spread offense in Tulane. The Redskins are stacked at WR and when they run 2WR with Jordan Reed at TE it is essential a 3WR spread set. In college, Kelley was used similar to Matt Forte (obviously, Tulane connection) and Bilal Powell on New York. He was extremely effective running out of shotgun, running draws, and catching the ball out of the backfield.

Furthermore, in the preseason Kelley has proven to be an excellent pass blocker even earning the praise of starting Quarterback Kirk Cousins both on his pass blocking and rushing ability:

“I thought he did a really good job running the football and also in pass protection, which is a very difficult part of playing the running back position. Just continue to compliment him, I think when you’re a rookie and undrafted and you’re in that position, what you need is belief. You need people around you who believe in you and have confidence in you because he does have the talent and he can run the football well. You just have to continue encouraging him and I think he showed a lot of confidence  when he got going and he’s a talented football player.”

It's no secret that the Redskins will be a pass-heavy team this season and if a Runningback wants to see significant carries he needs to be able to pass block. The fact that Kelley played out of the spread in Tulane is justification that he be an asset in 3rd down, hurry up, and garbage time situations.

As far as running the ball from under center goes, there isn't much tape of Kelley doing it in college however in the most recent preseason game against the Bills Kelley excelled at it. He started with the first string offense, frequently found the hole, hit it with great acceleration, split defenders, and fought for extra yards Don't believe me? See for yourself.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t7qmCnxDmxo

Don't get me wrong, this isn't some type of athletic freak, his combine numbers are very weak but he is an excellent fit in this Redskins system. But what about Matt Jones? He just hurt his shoulder (AC joint), he didn't tear his ACL. Personally, I'm not extremely impressed with Matt Jones, why?

The first red flag is his paltry 3.4 yards per carry. As a young Runningback, you want to be somewhere around 4 yards per carry to have job security. You can't blame the offensive line because on 60 more carries, Alfred Morris averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Even more troubling is that Matt Jones only eclipsed 4 yards per carry in 3 of 14 games last year.

The next red flag are fumbles. On 163 touches, he fumbled the ball 4 times. Every 40 times he touched the ball, he coughed it up. Fumbles are the kiss of death for a running back.

The last red flag are injury concerns. He hurt his hip which caused him to miss weeks 16, 17, and the playoff game against the Packers. He had surgery on his groin in the offseason. Now he's sitting on the bench with a shoulder injury while Rob Kelley is shining with the starting offense. It was just preseason but when running with #1s against Buffalo, Kelley rushed 12 times for 51 yards (4.3ypc) in just one half of play.

You're officially put on notice, this guy is your first waiver acquisition of the season! The best part is? He can be had for free!

Thanks for reading, if you like content like this I will be writing much more like this and it will be available on my website.

Rob Kelley Tulane highlights:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XrndMLIop3s
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Nailed it! ?

I'll have to write some more content for this season.

 
Washington Post's Master Tesfatsion wrote it is "clear" Rob Kelley will be the Redskins' No. 1 running back.

When healthy, Kelley has been the first running back through the rotation at camp, and Tesfatsion points out coach Jay Gruden has stuck with experienced runners over rookies in the recent past. That, of course, could change, but Kelley is the better bet to open Week 1 as the starting tailback. No matter who wins the competition, both backs should get work throughout the season, limiting their fantasy upside.

Source: Washington Post 

Aug 3 - 12:34 PM
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Was it the last 2 years that the starting RB for the Skins was replaced before the year was over? I could see Perrine taking over by years end. 

 
Ilov80s said:
Was it the last 2 years that the starting RB for the Skins was replaced before the year was over? I could see Perrine taking over by years end. 
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Don't know where that writer's getting that at all. Gruden at the podium has been enthusiastic about Kelly and the work he's done this offseason but that's to be expected with an incumbent starter who worked his way up from UDFA nobody FB to starting NFL RB last year. A lot of the beat writers who watch every practice predict Perine will take the job eventually. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Don't know where that writer's getting that at all. Gruden at the podium has been enthusiastic about Kelly and the work he's done this offseason but that's to be expected with an incumbent starter who worked his way up from UDFA nobody FB to starting NFL RB last year. A lot of the beat writers who watch every practice predict Perine will take the job eventually. 
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Yeah, I think it's very likely Kelley starts the year. How the year ends is another story. The preseason games will likely be more telling here....unless we get repeated stories all hammering the same point. (Sig's steady drumbeat). 

 
Redskins coach Jay Gruden says Rob Kelley reported "bigger and faster" this summer.

Gruden also said Kelley is more confident. With Samaje Perine struggling early in camp, the 'Skins have commenced puffing up Kelley. A 24-year-old man, we would consider it unlikely Kelley got both bigger and faster in the eight months since last season ended. Kelley broke a ton of tackles as a rookie starter, but showed little in the way of wiggle. He's in line to start Week 1, but Perine isn't going away as a threat. It figures to be a fluid situation for much of 2017.

Source: Mike Jones on Twitter
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Rob Kelley rushed 10 times for 57 yards and a touchdown in the Redskins' third preseason game.

He added a three-yard reception. With the rest of his offense sputtering, Kelley kept grinding out tough yards, coming out of piles with extra gains. Kelley entered today with just 11 yards on 12 summer carries, but underscored why he ended up easily winning his "battle" with rookie Samaje Perine. Kelley is not a special talent, but he won't be brought down by arm tackles. He should score plenty of touchdowns as an RB2/FLEX.
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I guess he looked pretty good against the Bengals today. (I didn't see the highlights). It appears the starting job is his for the time being. He's been ultra cheap in drafts I've been in. 

 
Holy cow anyone watch that interview Erin Andrew just did with Kelly? He can barely talk. Yikes. (And I'm a Skins fan) 

 
Ketamine Dreams said:
I guess he looked pretty good against the Bengals today. (I didn't see the highlights). It appears the starting job is his for the time being. He's been ultra cheap in drafts I've been in. 
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I got him with the last pick in the 8th round of a 12 team standard draft yesterday. I thought that was one of the better values of the draft. The only other player left on the board that could conceivably called a starting RB was J Stewart. 

 
Ketamine Dreams said:
I guess he looked pretty good against the Bengals today. (I didn't see the highlights). It appears the starting job is his for the time being. He's been ultra cheap in drafts I've been in. 
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Been going in the 6-7th from what I've seen. Not crazy cheap - seems about right. Kelly isn't a special talent but volume backs score points too of course. 

Going against a preseason Bengals D isn't as telling as in-season stats, though I'm sure Kelly will have some good games against poor defenses. 

I'm starting to question WAS offense ability to move the ball effectively, but again I try not to read into preseason all that much. Would have been nice to see a little more out of Cousins & Co though. So far Kelly's been about their only bright spot. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I got him with the last pick in the 8th round of a 12 team standard draft yesterday. I thought that was one of the better values of the draft. The only other player left on the board that could conceivably called a starting RB was J Stewart. 
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I'd take him over JStew too. 8th is about where I'd want him as a 4th or 5th RB. Nice pick. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'd take him over JStew too. 8th is about where I'd want him as a 4th or 5th RB. Nice pick. 
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I think they are pretty close and both are important guys to keep an eye on in standard drafts because they are about the last possible RBs that you can possibly be ok starting. They are the "in emergency, break glass" RBs that every team needs. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I think they are pretty close and both are important guys to keep an eye on in standard drafts because they are about the last possible RBs that you can possibly be ok starting. They are the "in emergency, break glass" RBs that every team needs. 
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I agree with this too - while CMC is a bit overrated, JStew has a large and defined role. And likely short yardage (when cam isn't vulturing) 

But definitely a value pick. kelly too - for what he is, he's solid in the 7th-8th provided you can handcuff him late. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I agree with this too - while CMC is a bit overrated, JStew has a large and defined role. And likely short yardage (when cam isn't vulturing) 

But definitely a value pick. kelly too - for what he is, he's solid in the 7th-8th provided you can handcuff him late. 
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You could handcuff  but I'm not handcuffing my RB4.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Stewart was RB29 last year (in volume and PPG) without CMC there.  Not much room to be giving away touches there.
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RB21 in ppg for standard last year. Only had 8 catches. There's room for him to get 15 carries a game, pound in GL TDs.

 
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Ilov80s said:
RB21 in ppg for standard last year. Only had 8 catches. There's room for him to get 15 catches a game, pound in GL TDs.
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Standard certainly helps, but 15 carries a game (I'm assuming you didn't mean to say catches :P) seems pretty optimistic.  He averaged 16.7 carries/game last year.  We really think CMC is only going to take 1-2 carries a game from him?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Standard certainly helps, but 15 carries a game (I'm assuming you didn't mean to say catches :P) seems pretty optimistic.  He averaged 16.7 carries/game last year.  We really think CMC is only going to take 1-2 carries a game from him?
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 Panther RBs got about 22 carries a game. 15 for Stewart, 7 for CMC seems reasonable average. Of course there is the possibility CMC is just so good the Panthers can't help but feed him more.

 
Stealthycat said:
I can't buy into Kelly being a top 20 RB.

Just can't. Looks JAGish to me 
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I've said it over and over here, he's the worst RB prospect I've ever seen. But he's a starting RB on a pretty good offense. At his adp, I don't need or expect top 20 RB. He's going as RB34 and I think he can be closer to the RB24 he was last year. He's a solid emergency, bye week guy.

 
I don't think anyone is confusing Kelley for David Johnson, but I also think the JAG talk is a little overstated. 

Kelley seems to have a knack for staying on his feet, reading plays well, and getting extra yardage. He also catches pretty well considering his size. When you consider that Perine is a similar type runner, I think Kelley holds onto the job longer than some may expect.

Not bad at all

 
Stealthycat said:
I can't buy into Kelly being a top 20 RB.

Just can't. Looks JAGish to me 
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He's totally a JAG. Scroll back in this topic and there's much conversation about his JAG-ness.

But he's a JAG with opportunity - and if the WAS offense can get out of second gear at some point that will translate to fantasy value. 

I passed on him a couple times and don't really want him on my team, but there's a time where a player like that has a place on a roster. Good FLEX back or RB3. 

Not ideal but decent RB2 with the occasional big game if one went big on WR / TE / QB early. 

 
I don't know - people want to ignore and bury Kelley because of his lack of measurables, but the coaching staff seems to love the guy. Seems to consistently generate positive yardage, protects Cousins well, and doesn't put the ball on the ground.

Everyone wants the new toy (Perine), but Kelley isn't going anywhere for some time. Just keep your expectations modest - very few receptions and TD/game flow dependent - and you'll probably be very happy with him as your RB3. As the season progresses, maybe Perine starts to eat into Kelley's share, but I think Kelley has a long leash here.

 
zamboni said:
I don't know - people want to ignore and bury Kelley because of his lack of measurables, but the coaching staff seems to love the guy. Seems to consistently generate positive yardage, protects Cousins well, and doesn't put the ball on the ground.

Everyone wants the new toy (Perine), but Kelley isn't going anywhere for some time. Just keep your expectations modest - very few receptions and TD/game flow dependent - and you'll probably be very happy with him as your RB3. As the season progresses, maybe Perine starts to eat into Kelley's share, but I think Kelley has a long leash here.
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I agree with this. This coaching staff can definitely be loyal to guys that have earned their ways into their good graces for whatever reasons. Gruden always praises his work ethic, commitment, etc. Usually, It doesn't feel like just coach speak when he talks guys up. Seems like he gives his guys every chance he can for them to succeed. I could see Perine getting more goal line touches as the season goes on, maybe even early on, if Kelley seems to struggle there.

 
crusty crab said:
I agree with this. This coaching staff can definitely be loyal to guys that have earned their ways into their good graces for whatever reasons. Gruden always praises his work ethic, commitment, etc. Usually, It doesn't feel like just coach speak when he talks guys up. Seems like he gives his guys every chance he can for them to succeed. I could see Perine getting more goal line touches as the season goes on, maybe even early on, if Kelley seems to struggle there.
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If Perine has ball security issues, I think the goal line is the last place that Gruden would use Perine. Kelley is a big dude himself and built to be a goal line back. Where I can see Perine being used more is if either Kelley develops a case of fumbilitis himself, or if the offense is struggling and Kelley is not helping the cause enough to the coaching staff's liking.

 
Kelley has his moments, but I seriously worry if the flow of game thing will be his undoing this year.  The Redskins offense has looked terrible this year and while the defense is better, they are still going to give up points. With a tough schedule that includes the AFC West, I can see the Redskins playing from behind a lot this year with a heavy dose of Chris Thompson and throwing the football.  When Gruden gets behind he gets pass happy.

BTW, I do NOT agree with this as I think Gruden should stick with the run and often the team does better when they do so.  But, I am just reporting out what I see from the team and that concerns me.

I don't think Kelley is a bum or anything I just don't know how you can insert him in your lineup as anything but a bye-week replacement and be confident that he'll get you something.  It's going to be hit or miss all year based on game flow.  If Gruden shows more confidence and leaves him in when the team is behind I may change my tune...

 
zamboni said:
If Perine has ball security issues, I think the goal line is the last place that Gruden would use Perine. Kelley is a big dude himself and built to be a goal line back. Where I can see Perine being used more is if either Kelley develops a case of fumbilitis himself, or if the offense is struggling and Kelley is not helping the cause enough to the coaching staff's liking.
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Good point regarding ball security. Don't need anyone fumbling scoring opportunities and probably changing game outcomes a'la Matt Jones. 

 
crusty crab said:
Good point regarding ball security. Don't need anyone fumbling scoring opportunities and probably changing game outcomes a'la Matt Jones. 
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Fumbling took Matt Jones to the very bottom of the bench.  That's kiss of death for Gruden, as it should be.

Does Perine really have fumbling issues?  I've not heard that before...

 
MikeApf said:
Fumbling took Matt Jones to the very bottom of the bench.  That's kiss of death for Gruden, as it should be.

Does Perine really have fumbling issues?  I've not heard that before...
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I don't know about Perine's past history, but IIRC he coughed it up on one his first pre-season game carries.

 
I think Perine had some ball security issues in training camp also. From 'Draftsharks":

"Redskins RB Samaje Perine fumbled in Thursday night's preseason game against the Ravens. He recovered, but that won't matter to the coaching staff. Perine has reportedly struggled with ball security in training camp, so this has become a concern. The rookie finished his night with just 15 yards on 5 carries. RB Robert Kelley carried 3 times for only 2 yards but strengthened his grasp on the starting job in this one."

One good thing about Perine is he has relatively little wear and tear from college since Mixon was so heavily involved. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out

 
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Coach Jay Gruden said after Sunday's win over the Rams that Rob Kelley may have a fractured rib.

Kelley left Sunday's win in the first half and didn't return, so indications were that Kelley's injury could be serious. We will hopefully receive a rough timetable on how long he'll be sidelined by Monday, when Gruden speaks to reporters. Rookie Samaje Perine now looks like Washington's lead runner. Chris Thompson is going to end up leading the backfield in playing time and PPR points.

Source: John Keim on Twitter
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I’m about to cut bait in redraft. We have deep benches and I’m pretty stacked at RB. I can’t see any scenario where I’d actually start this guy. Thinking of taking a flier on Rod Smith. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Somewhere between the Qin & Han dynasties. 

Jokes aside, I expect the Redskins to bring in a RB this year in the draft of FA. Seems like a glaring need. 
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They did that last year.

It's the Redskins, so there's still the possibility they bring in yet another guy that can't beat out Kelley.  Thompson (and just not being very good) still caps his upside though.  I'd pick him up as a waiver wire lotto ticket and hope for volume but don't really see a good percentage in trading for him at this stage.  Too much has to go right for him to be fantasy-relevant, and that lightning already struck once...

 
Arodin said:
They did that last year.

It's the Redskins, so there's still the possibility they bring in yet another guy that can't beat out Kelley.  Thompson (and just not being very good) still caps his upside though.  I'd pick him up as a waiver wire lotto ticket and hope for volume but don't really see a good percentage in trading for him at this stage.  Too much has to go right for him to be fantasy-relevant, and that lightning already struck once...
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Pretty sure Thompson is a fa.

 
It also wouldn’t surprise me if they take another look at Bibbs next year along with Thompson, Fat Rob, and Perine. 

 
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