*** Official 2012-13 Hot Stove Thread (1 Viewer)

[Daywalker]

This is pretty fun:

draft simulator

 

[Annyong]

Whats the ETA for Billy Hamilton? He's on the waiver wire in my 10-team 4 player keeper league.

 

[Eephus]

Whats the ETA for Billy Hamilton? He's on the waiver wire in my 10-team 4 player keeper league.

I don't think we'll see him until September. He only has 213 PAs at the AA level and is learning a new defensive position this year.

 

[Annyong]

Out of respect, i put Chipper Jones on my Watch List

 

[ThaPenguin]

Whats the ETA for Billy Hamilton? He's on the waiver wire in my 10-team 4 player keeper league.

I don't think we'll see him until September. He only has 213 PAs at the AA level and is learning a new defensive position this year.

Looks like the plan is to roll with Choo this year, then start the B-Ham show next year.

 

[whoknew]

Halladay was just pulled after 1 inning. According to Buster Olney, he was throwing his fastball at 87 in that inning.

That can't be good.

 

[pantagrapher]

Halladay was just pulled after 1 inning. According to Buster Olney, he was throwing his fastball at 87 in that inning.That can't be good.

Saw on twitter it was a stomach virus. Allegedly.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

 

[Eephus]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

I think being closer to the turn has tactical advantages in a big league. If you keep track of what team #14 and #15 need, it can help you decide which pick to make during the odd number rounds.I'd go hitter/hitter in rounds 1-2. Impact bats go quickly in big leagues. You'll be surprised by how much the hitters are depleted by 3.13.

 

[Captain Hook]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

The answer REALLY depends on what type of league - yeah I know you said 15, but 5X5? NFBC? or Yahoo or $$ privateQuick exercize would be look at a list and see IF you like a player at #10? do you still like at hitter at #13?Do you have a specific player (generally bad idea but easier in random leagues) you want in the first or second?Is this KDS?

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

The answer REALLY depends on what type of league - yeah I know you said 15, but 5X5? NFBC? or Yahoo or $$ privateQuick exercize would be look at a list and see IF you like a player at #10? do you still like at hitter at #13?Do you have a specific player (generally bad idea but easier in random leagues) you want in the first or second?Is this KDS?

I think it's called Roto. Other exceptions are they don't use runs and RBI's. They just use HR's, SB's, total bases, AVG and OBP. And any good rankings so I can see who might and might not be there at 10 or 13? Thanks for your advice guys.

 

[Captain Hook]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

The answer REALLY depends on what type of league - yeah I know you said 15, but 5X5? NFBC? or Yahoo or $$ privateQuick exercize would be look at a list and see IF you like a player at #10? do you still like at hitter at #13?

Do you have a specific player (generally bad idea but easier in random leagues) you want in the first or second?

Is this KDS?

I think it's called Roto. Other exceptions are they don't use runs and RBI's. They just use HR's, SB's, total bases, AVG and OBP. And any good rankings so I can see who might and might not be there at 10 or 13?

Thanks for your advice guys.

There are basically two formats for fantasy baseball - Rotisserie (or roto) and Head to HeadThis > They just use HR's, SB's, total bases, AVG and OBP.

is very unusual and you really need a list weighted just for that .... Which site is this being done on? They may have rankings for that format - otherwise you are going to have to get them customized OR find projections which include TB and OBP and do some excel work

Here is the first round from a recent 5X5 draft (but that has R/RBI instead of TB/OBP)

Round 1:

1 1 Miguel Cabrera 3B

1 2 Mike Trout CF

1 3 Ryan Braun LF

1 4 Matt Kemp CF

1 5 Andrew McCutchen CF

1 6 Robinson Cano 2B T

1 7 Carlos Gonzalez LF

1 8 Albert Pujols 1B

1 9 Joey Votto 1B

1 10 Prince Fielder 1B

1 11 Justin Upton RF

1 12 Buster Posey C

1 13 Justin Verlander SP

1 14 Giancarlo Stanton RF

1 15 Stephen Strasburg SP

 

[Eephus]

Stanton would seem to be the big outlier from Hook's list. Your league's rules attempts to take team-dependent stats out of the equation. Stanton would do much better in a TB and HR league. The Marlins' offense won't impact those personal stats like it may decrease his R and RBI numbers.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Stanton would seem to be the big outlier from Hook's list. Your league's rules attempts to take team-dependent stats out of the equation. Stanton would do much better in a TB and HR league. The Marlins' offense won't impact those personal stats like it may decrease his R and RBI numbers.

Yeah, exactly. That's what they try to do. So are you saying to target someone like Stanton more in a league like mine or stay away from him?

 

[Mr. Peterson]

Not sure where to ask this, but new to fantasy baseball and not sure about strategy stuff. Quick question: which spot is better in a 15 team league, 10 or 13? Does it even matter? I think I was hoping to come out with a batter and a starting pitcher in the first two. Good or bad strategy?

The answer REALLY depends on what type of league - yeah I know you said 15, but 5X5? NFBC? or Yahoo or $$ privateQuick exercize would be look at a list and see IF you like a player at #10? do you still like at hitter at #13?

Do you have a specific player (generally bad idea but easier in random leagues) you want in the first or second?

Is this KDS?

I think it's called Roto. Other exceptions are they don't use runs and RBI's. They just use HR's, SB's, total bases, AVG and OBP. And any good rankings so I can see who might and might not be there at 10 or 13?

Thanks for your advice guys.

There are basically two formats for fantasy baseball - Rotisserie (or roto) and Head to HeadThis > They just use HR's, SB's, total bases, AVG and OBP.

is very unusual and you really need a list weighted just for that .... Which site is this being done on? They may have rankings for that format - otherwise you are going to have to get them customized OR find projections which include TB and OBP and do some excel work

Here is the first round from a recent 5X5 draft (but that has R/RBI instead of TB/OBP)

Round 1:

1 1 Miguel Cabrera 3B

1 2 Mike Trout CF

1 3 Ryan Braun LF

1 4 Matt Kemp CF

1 5 Andrew McCutchen CF

1 6 Robinson Cano 2B T

1 7 Carlos Gonzalez LF

1 8 Albert Pujols 1B

1 9 Joey Votto 1B

1 10 Prince Fielder 1B

1 11 Justin Upton RF

1 12 Buster Posey C

1 13 Justin Verlander SP

1 14 Giancarlo Stanton RF

1 15 Stephen Strasburg SP

Thank you. That's a nice list. Now I have to figue out who I"m gonna get and if I should go batter-batter or select a pitcher in the 1st or 2nd. Like I said, I'm new to this so having a stud pitcher that I can leave in my lineup and not worry about would be nice.

 

[Eephus]

There's a thread about a total bases league that would be appropriate for your league.

I personally think it's kind of a screwy format. AVG and OBP are largely redundant. OBP and SLG would be better, although you'd have the same issue with SLG and TB. If you're trying to minimize team-dependent stats, what do you do about W and SV?

 

[Captain Hook]

Stanton would seem to be the big outlier from Hook's list. Your league's rules attempts to take team-dependent stats out of the equation. Stanton would do much better in a TB and HR league. The Marlins' offense won't impact those personal stats like it may decrease his R and RBI numbers.

Please note - NOT my list -- an actual first round from NFBC draftand I agree about Stanton but he is easily a second round pick in 5X5 leagues

 

[Captain Hook]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

 

[Eephus]

Stanton would seem to be the big outlier from Hook's list. Your league's rules attempts to take team-dependent stats out of the equation. Stanton would do much better in a TB and HR league. The Marlins' offense won't impact those personal stats like it may decrease his R and RBI numbers.

Please note - NOT my list -- an actual first round from NFBC draftand I agree about Stanton but he is easily a second round pick in 5X5 leagues

sorry if that's what came across.

 

[Mr. Peterson]

There's a thread about a total bases league that would be appropriate for your league.I personally think it's kind of a screwy format. AVG and OBP are largely redundant. OBP and SLG would be better, although you'd have the same issue with SLG and TB. If you're trying to minimize team-dependent stats, what do you do about W and SV?

They keep that the same. I don't know why they do it that way but I guess they have been doing it for a while.Do you know what the threads name is by any chance? I can't seem to find it. By the way, I apologize for being confused, but is Stanton a guy that I want to target or stay away from with our format?

 

[Eephus]

There's a thread about a total bases league that would be appropriate for your league.I personally think it's kind of a screwy format. AVG and OBP are largely redundant. OBP and SLG would be better, although you'd have the same issue with SLG and TB. If you're trying to minimize team-dependent stats, what do you do about W and SV?

They keep that the same. I don't know why they do it that way but I guess they have been doing it for a while.Do you know what the threads name is by any chance? I can't seem to find it. By the way, I apologize for being confused, but is Stanton a guy that I want to target or stay away from with our format?

thread is called "Total Bases Pool"Definitely pick Stanton if he's still available (he won't be)

 

[rascal]

I need a draft strategy, other than don't suck, for drafting 3rd in a 12 team h2h league.

I've only played in 10 team leagues. Do pitchers still go incredibly fast? Last year in two leagues 6-7 pitchers went in the first two rounds.

 

[Annyong]

I need a draft strategy, other than don't suck, for drafting 3rd in a 12 team h2h league.I've only played in 10 team leagues. Do pitchers still go incredibly fast? Last year in two leagues 6-7 pitchers went in the first two rounds.

i would probably load up on offense then

 

[guru_007]

I need a draft strategy, other than don't suck, for drafting 3rd in a 12 team h2h league.I've only played in 10 team leagues. Do pitchers still go incredibly fast? Last year in two leagues 6-7 pitchers went in the first two rounds.

take this with a grain of salt, as I don't do head to head leagues anymore...In 12 team mixed leagues, I would not really worry about getting a pitcher that early. Your first pick is obviously offense, and your next two picks should probably be offense also, unless for some reason no one picks a pitcher.In my experience in head to head leagues, you can almost always pickup a decent two-start pitcher each week, and if you waste a few early draft picks on stud starters, they can get outpointed by a decent two-starter if they only have one start.I want to maximize my innings played each week, and offense is almost always more reliable.Honestly, I'd almost opt to get Kimbrel in the mid rounds over a starter in h2h leagues, as Kimbrel obviously is good for saves, ratios and can be a key in strikeouts.Reason I don't like h2h leagues is it always seemed to me that the well balanced team usually got the short end of the stick against a team that was more aggressive in rolling over their rosters. Plus, I hated having to pore over the waiver wire each weekend night for the week ahead...and it always seemed I would have a guy that would pull a muscle on Monday and miss 3-4 games that week and screw me. Stupid h2h leagues

 

[MAC_32]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

 

[RnR]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

 

[MAC_32]

I need a draft strategy, other than don't suck, for drafting 3rd in a 12 team h2h league.I've only played in 10 team leagues. Do pitchers still go incredibly fast? Last year in two leagues 6-7 pitchers went in the first two rounds.

i would probably load up on offense then

Let others make the mistake of loading up on pitching at the expense of their offense, it's so much easier to build a quality pitching staff cheaply than offense. Just make sure you have two by the end of the 10th round, one can be a higher WHIP pitcher, just not both, and make sure your third one in the 11-14 round range is lower WHIP too.

 

[MAC_32]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

 

[MAC_32]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Stras finished last year healthy, Clayton did not, reading between the lines it seemed some suggested surgery while others said he could get by...he chose not to have surgery. Big red flag to me. He can prove me wrong on someone else's team.

 

[dparker713]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Strasburg's elbow is fully healed, Kershaw's hip surgery happened this offseason plus he was just held back with an Achilles strain.

 

[MAC_32]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Strasburg's elbow is fully healed, Kershaw's hip surgery happened this offseason plus he was just held back with an Achilles strain.

He had the surgery?Oh.

Remember reading in September he elected not to, guess he changed his mind. Changes my opinion a little, but the achilles strain is still an issue, likely over compensation injury - common post surgery.

 

[Eephus]

They're both pretty

 

[RnR]

 

[TobiasFunke]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

 

[RnR]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

Let's see a 200 IP season before we start talking like that. I bet you thought Rich Harden was better than a lot of pitcher too, right?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Strasburg's elbow is fully healed, Kershaw's hip surgery happened this offseason plus he was just held back with an Achilles strain.

Making stuff up now to support your faulty logic? First off, Kershaw has never had hip surgery. The Achilles injury also wasn't a strain

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Dodgers Opening Day starter Clayton Kershaw said his left Achilles was sore Sunday, one day after being struck by a comebacker, but he doesn't expect to miss a start or any practice time.

Secondly, you don't know who is healthy and who isn't or what impacts specific surgeries have on an individual player. So don't pretend like you do.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

No, no it isn't obvious.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

Let's see a 200 IP season before we start talking like that. I bet you thought Rich Harden was better than a lot of pitcher too, right?

Pretty sure I said "if both are fully healthy," but thanks for saying it again I guess Like I said, it's just a risk/reward question.

 

[collective]

I need a draft strategy, other than don't suck, for drafting 3rd in a 12 team h2h league.I've only played in 10 team leagues. Do pitchers still go incredibly fast? Last year in two leagues 6-7 pitchers went in the first two rounds.

take this with a grain of salt, as I don't do head to head leagues anymore...In 12 team mixed leagues, I would not really worry about getting a pitcher that early. Your first pick is obviously offense, and your next two picks should probably be offense also, unless for some reason no one picks a pitcher.In my experience in head to head leagues, you can almost always pickup a decent two-start pitcher each week, and if you waste a few early draft picks on stud starters, they can get outpointed by a decent two-starter if they only have one start.I want to maximize my innings played each week, and offense is almost always more reliable.Honestly, I'd almost opt to get Kimbrel in the mid rounds over a starter in h2h leagues, as Kimbrel obviously is good for saves, ratios and can be a key in strikeouts.Reason I don't like h2h leagues is it always seemed to me that the well balanced team usually got the short end of the stick against a team that was more aggressive in rolling over their rosters. Plus, I hated having to pore over the waiver wire each weekend night for the week ahead...and it always seemed I would have a guy that would pull a muscle on Monday and miss 3-4 games that week and screw me. Stupid h2h leagues

It isn't H2H leagues, it is playing in a weekly, instead of a daily league, that is the problem.Plus it is POUR, not pore.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

No, no it isn't obvious.

No? Maybe I'm not phrasing this correctly. I'll try again: if both stay healthy and pitch to their career averages (or if you prefer, to their projections), Strasburg is the better pitcher.I think it's weird for people to think about them having a huge difference in K rates since Kershaw's is already elite, but there's a 2K per 9 inning difference there. Like I said, if we were talking about one guy striking out 8 per 9 and another guy striking out 6 per 9, we'd be talking about guys on totally different tiers, especially if their walk and HR rates were somewhat similar as they are here. Maybe the K rate drops a smidge as he tries to go deeper into games, but if you don't think it'll drop off too much (a reasonable thing to think) and expect him to pitch 200 innings (not quite as reasonable in my book), you'd be justified taking him ahead of Kershaw.

 

[RnR]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

Let's see a 200 IP season before we start talking like that. I bet you thought Rich Harden was better than a lot of pitcher too, right?

Pretty sure I said "if both are fully healthy," but thanks for saying it again I guess Like I said, it's just a risk/reward question.

Yeah, but see, you can't say that Strasburg is better than the best pitcher in the National League just because your small sample size says his K/9 rate is better with similar walk rates. Like I said, that's like comparing Rich Harden circa 2005 to an elite pitcher of that era. Sure, in theory his numbers play out to be an excellent pitcher, but if he's never done it over the course of a full season we can't just assume he's better.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Kershaw's clearly the safer play, that's obvious. But it's just as obvious that if both are fully healthy, Strasburg is the better pitcher. He's got a higher K/9 rate over his career (by 2 Ks- if it helps, imagine having this conversation as between an 8K/9 pitcher and a 6K/9 pitcher) with similar walk rates. Kershaw has the park in his favor, but Strasburg has the better defense, so those two probably balance out. Personally I'd go Kershaw if I had to pick one, but it's just a question of risk and what strategy you prefer that early in the draft.

No, no it isn't obvious.

No? Maybe I'm not phrasing this correctly. I'll try again: if both stay healthy and pitch to their career averages (or if you prefer, to their projections), Strasburg is the better pitcher.I think it's weird for people to think about them having a huge difference in K rates since Kershaw's is already elite, but there's a 2K per 9 inning difference there. Like I said, if we were talking about one guy striking out 8 per 9 and another guy striking out 6 per 9, we'd be talking about guys on totally different tiers, especially if their walk and HR rates were somewhat similar as they are here. Maybe the K rate drops a smidge as he tries to go deeper into games, but if you don't think it'll drop off too much (a reasonable thing to think) and expect him to pitch 200 innings (not quite as reasonable in my book), you'd be justified taking him ahead of Kershaw.

Kershaw is an elite power lefty, something that doesn't come around that often. In real baseball Kershaw is worth more than any other starter IMO. In fantasy the object is to find and project results while finding value in players who others think won't achieve the stat lines you think they will. With Strasburg you are paying for his ceiling which is based on only a glimpse of past performance. With Verlander, Kershaw and Price you are paying for proven results with a known past return. We just don't know what Strasburg will be like when he gets to inning 160, because he has never done it. I think it's fine to take him as the #1 pitcher in keepers and dynasties but even the experts are questioning where he is going in redrafts. Give me a full season to work with and then maybe I'll be on board drafting him as a top five starter, for now I'll kindly pass.

 

[TobiasFunke]

Yeah, but see, you can't say that Strasburg is better than the best pitcher in the National League just because your small sample size says his K/9 rate is better with similar walk rates.

Like I said, that's like comparing Rich Harden to an elite pitcher at this point. Sure, in theory his numbers play out to be an excellent pitcher, but if he's never done it over the course of a full season we can't just assume he's better.

I think you're confusing fantasy baseball drafting strategy with Cy Young voting. I didn't assume anything. I just said that if both are fully healthy and Strasburg throws 200 innings, I'd rather have Strasburg, because chances are, he'll give you a much higher K rate with similar production elsewhere. Here we get into a league format question, because obviously the calculation changes if you have an innings cap or a starts cap or no cap. But the bottom line is that it's not silly to prefer Strasburg, if you think its likely that he'll pitch 200 innings, or you have doubts about Kershaw's health this year, or you're in an innings limit league where you'll be able to make up for the loss of IP to some degree.Again, personally I'd take Kershaw. I'm just saying it's not crazy to disagree. If Strasburg's ceiling was equal to Kershaw's best, then it would be crazy. But it's not, it's higher, because of the Ks. And also because Kershaw doesn't have a shortstop, but that's another story

 

[MAC_32]

One thing the Kershaw defenders are ignoring are prices. I haven't seen Kershaw fall beyond the 2/3 elbow in any draft. I have seen Stras fall into round 4 somewhat frequently.

This is very significant. I'm not considering any arm until round 4, sometimes I'm in drafts that value the pitcher highly and don't take any until round 7 or 8. Other times I'm in ones in which others view pitchers similarly as I, in those cases I may end up with Cliff Lee or Gio in round 5 or 6...maybe Stras in round 4. I'm not taking Stras, Kershaw, Verlander, any arm before then though. Two of them are never there, one sometimes is. I don't remember the last time I took an arm before round 5, but this year - I might. Not sure how to draft the rest of my staff because I'm so used to the sticky tack + glue/quantity method, with Stras I think I would just ignore everything arms until after round 10 but wouldn't know until I am actually there.

 

[RnR]

Yeah, but see, you can't say that Strasburg is better than the best pitcher in the National League just because your small sample size says his K/9 rate is better with similar walk rates.

Like I said, that's like comparing Rich Harden to an elite pitcher at this point. Sure, in theory his numbers play out to be an excellent pitcher, but if he's never done it over the course of a full season we can't just assume he's better.

I think you're confusing fantasy baseball drafting strategy with Cy Young voting. I didn't assume anything. I just said that if both are fully healthy and Strasburg throws 200 innings, I'd rather have Strasburg, because chances are, he'll give you a much higher K rate with similar production elsewhere. Here we get into a league format question, because obviously the calculation changes if you have an innings cap or a starts cap or no cap. But the bottom line is that it's not silly to prefer Strasburg, if you think its likely that he'll pitch 200 innings, or you have doubts about Kershaw's health this year, or you're in an innings limit league where you'll be able to make up for the loss of IP to some degree.Again, personally I'd take Kershaw. I'm just saying it's not crazy to disagree. If Strasburg's ceiling was equal to Kershaw's best, then it would be crazy. But it's not, it's higher, because of the Ks. And also because Kershaw doesn't have a shortstop, but that's another story

I'm not confused. I drafted Strasburg in the 2nd round of Cake. I recognize the risk/reward in that pick, but I'd also trade him straight up for Kershaw in a millisecond if shuke offered.ETA: I see where you are coming from, I just think discounting the "done it before" factor that early in the draft is a very risky move.

 

[Premier]

@TBTimes_Rays: #Royals announce today now-#Rays Myers was their '12 minor-lg hitter of year + Odorizzi their minor-lg pitcher of year. Awards to be mailed

 

[Bogart]

@TBTimes_Rays: #Royals announce today now-#Rays Myers was their '12 minor-lg hitter of year + Odorizzi their minor-lg pitcher of year. Awards to be mailed

I'm sure the Rays can take them to Sizzler or something to celebrate.

 

[dparker713]

Strasburg going way too early in these drafts.

Again I agree but there are a lot of players out there who think he will do better or as well as Verlander or Kershaw

I like Stras better than Kershaw and him coming close to Verlander would not surprise me.Still wouldn't consider him until the 3rd or 4th round though.

I'm curious as to why. Kershaw is about as "money in the bank" as they come.

I don't trust Clayton's hip and Stras was a ridiculous level of dominant so quickly after TJ surgery.

Kershaw has demonstrated dominance over two consecutive years, Strasburg has never done that because of injuries yet you are taking Strasburg higher because of Kershaw's hip. Logic down?

Strasburg's elbow is fully healed, Kershaw's hip surgery happened this offseason plus he was just held back with an Achilles strain.

Making stuff up now to support your faulty logic? First off, Kershaw has never had hip surgery. The Achilles injury also wasn't a strain

GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Dodgers Opening Day starter Clayton Kershaw said his left Achilles was sore Sunday, one day after being struck by a comebacker, but he doesn't expect to miss a start or any practice time.

Secondly, you don't know who is healthy and who isn't or what impacts specific surgeries have on an individual player. So don't pretend like you do.

You're missing the point, as always. Kershaw has injury concerns. Concerns that are more recent than Strasburg's.